In a major surprise, veteran Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced on Sunday that she would not seek another term next year. Ros-Lehtinen had consistently won with ease in her Miami-area House district since her victory in a special election all the way back in 1989. However, this seat, which includes parts of downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and Coral Gables, proved that it did not like Donald Trump whatsoever last year.
While Florida as a whole swung from 50-49 Obama to 49-47 Trump, the 27th District violently lurched in the opposite direction, going from 53-46 Obama all the way to 59-39 Clinton, making this the bluest seat held by a Republican anywhere in the nation. Despite that dramatic shift, Ros-Lehtinen won re-election 55-45, running a massive 30 point points ahead of Trump—a testament to her personal popularity. While Democrats might have targeted this district in 2018 even if Ros-Lehtinen had run again, Team Blue will almost certainly have a much better shot winning it without needing to get past an entrenched incumbent.
However, while this district will be a top Democratic target, it’s far from a lost cause for Republicans. While Florida’s large Cuban-American population has been more willing to back Democrats in presidential elections in recent cycles, Republicans still do well further down the ballot. According to analyst Matthew Isbell, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio (a former Ros-Lehtinen intern) only lost the 27th by a narrow 49-48 as he was winning statewide 52-44, a sign that non-Trump Republicans can still perform adequately here. And the GOP has plenty of state legislators and other local elected officials who could run in Ros-Lehtinen’s place.
Sure enough, it didn’t take long for several Republicans to come forward and tell the Miami Herald about their interest. Perhaps the best-known potential candidate is Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera, a former state representative and Miami-Dade County property appraiser (an elected position), who says he plans to “spend the next few days” discussing a possible congressional campaign with his family. López-Cantera is a close Rubio friend, though his last major bid for office did not go well. During that weird time when Rubio was busy running for president and swearing he wouldn’t seek re-election, López-Cantera sought to replace Rubio in the Senate. But he wound up raising very little money even before Rubio reversed course and ran for another term (a move that prompted CLC, as he’s often known, to drop out of the race).
Several other Republicans also told the Herald that they’re looking at bids. Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro says he’s “always eyed this district.” Meanwhile, state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz, who’s reportedly being considered for a U.S. attorney post by Trump and is also mulling a bid for state Senate, says he’ll consider his options after the legislative session concludes a week from now. State Sen. Rene Garcia, who is termed out next year, says he’s thinking about it, too, though it also sounds like he won’t give an answer until the state budget is done. Finally, there’s ex-state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, but he sounds less fired up, saying that a “run for Congress is not in my immediate plans”—though that’s still not a no.
Two noteworthy Democrats were running before Ros-Lehtinen made her announcement. Businessman Scott Fuhrman was last year’s Democratic nominee, and his 10-point loss was the closest anyone ever came to unseating Ros-Lehtinen. However, Ros-Lehtinen ran ads highlighting Furhman’s arrest record (the most recent and serious incident came in 2009, when he was pulled over, and, after admitting to having two drinks, police found a loaded handgun in the car), and the GOP wouldn’t hesitate to do the same thing in 2018. Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez also kicked off a bid a few weeks ago.
Now that the seat is open, though, several other area Democrats are suddenly finding the courage to explore the contest. State Rep. David Richardson says he’ll be thinking about it “[o]ver the next few days,” while state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez says that once the legislative session is over, he’ll give the race a “hard look.” Ex-Miami City Commissioner Marc Sarnoff also says he’s interested, as does Matt Haggman, a former Herald reporter who currently works for the Knight Foundation, a non-profit that promotes journalism.
Meanwhile, Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell says he’s not ruling out the possibility and says that supporters have asked him to run. However, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, a prospective candidate for governor, doesn’t sound like he’s interested in dropping down to the House. Levine said that he’s “focused on traveling the state and talking with residents about the future of Florida,” which also isn’t a no, but it’s pretty close.
No matter who gets in on either side, though, this will be a major race, and if Democrats have any hope of retaking the House in 2018, this seat is pretty much a must-win. There’s also a chance that Ros-Lehtinen’s unexpected departure could herald a further wave of retirements among Republicans who sit in blue seats but don’t want to have to spend the next year-and-a-half defending the indefensible Trump to angry constituents—or at least, Democrats can hope.