2016 saw California continue to trend Bluer at a Presidential level with no less than 7 GOP House Districts being carried by Clinton as well as an increasing statewide Voter Registration gap between Democrats and Republicans (14.3% - 2012, 18.9% - 2016). This of course begs the question what does it mean for the 2018 midterms for the House?
13 of the 14 GOP Districts now have confirmed candidates and we can rest assured that the last one to be filled, the 21st, will have a candidate. Whilst it is still very early in the cycle we can now start to make an assessment of which ones may be competitive and which ones most likely will not. Of course if an electoral tidal wave builds they may all be competitive but this is unlikely, even in California. Naturally scandals, retirements, recruiting successes and failures as well as the overall political mood of the electorate and the performance of Trump between now and then all have a major role to play (obviously). As does the Trump Care vote, if it remains a hot button issue (paging the DCCC).
So onto the Districts…
The first batch of Districts are what I call the Ruby Red Districts. They are unlikely to be competitive in 2018. There are 6 of them.
CA-01
PVI - R+11
2012 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 57.3%, Reed (D) 42.7% - Reed lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2014 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 61.1%, Hall (D) 38.9% - Hall lost all 12 Counties in the District.
2016 House Result: LaMalfa (R) 59.1%, Reed (D) 40.9% - Reed lost all 12 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.73%, D - 30.82%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 42.32%, D - 30.52%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 41.90%, D - 29.41%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 41.43%, D - 30.34%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.50%, D - 30.21%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 53%
2012 Pres - Obama 40.3%, Romney 56.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 36.5%, Trump 56.2%
Trump Care vote — YES
The data above speaks for itself particularly given that Trump won by a greater margin than Romney. Interestingly like all of the GOP Districts the voter registration numbers show that this one is bluing albeit slowly. That successive Dem house candidates have failed to carry a single county speaks volumes.
This District, like the next 2, were drawn in 2011 to elect a Republican by the independent California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
CA-04
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: McClintock (R) 61.1%, Uppal (D) 38.9% - Uppal lost 8/10 Counties in the District.
2014 House Result: McClintock (R) 60.4%, Moore (R) 39.6% - No Democrat filed!
2016 House Result: McClintock (R) 62.7%, Derlet (D) 37.3% - Derlet lost 8/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.95%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.48%, D - 29.18%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.41%, D - 28.55%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.76%, D - 29.25%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 43.62%, D - 29.09%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 39.5%, Romney 57.9%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.2%, Trump 54.0%
Trump Care vote — YES
Despite some islands of blue, this District is obviously a long shot at best. With 2006 and 2008 Democratic candidate Charlie Brown rumored to be running again this race could get interesting. Or it may not.
CA-08
PVI - R+10
2012 House Result: Cook (R) 57.4%, Imus (R) 42.6% - Democrats lost Open Primary
2014 House Result: Cook (R) 67.7%, Conaway (D) 32.3%
2016 House Result: Cook (R) 62.3%, Ramirez (D) 37.7%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.15%, D - 32.69%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.28%, D - 32.48%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.44%, D - 32.17%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 38.58%, D - 33.20%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 38.38%, D - 33.12%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.7%, Romney 55.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.6%, Trump 54.7%
Trump Care vote — YES
This is the third of the large inland, elect me a Republican, Red Districts. Interestingly it is theoretically the least Red of the 3. Despite that it is unlikely to be a competitive race in 2018.
CA-23
PVI - R+14
2012 House Result: McCarthy (R) 73.2%, Phillips (I) 26.8% - No Democrat Filed!
2014 House Result: McCarthy (R) 75.2%, Garcia (D) 24.8%
2016 House Result: McCarthy (R) 69.2%, Reed (D) 32.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.48%, D - 29.84%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.52%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.03%, D - 29.44%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.17%, D - 29.67%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 43.05%, D - 29.50%
2008 Pres - Obama 36%, McCain 61%
2012 Pres - Obama 36.13%, Romney 61.51%.
2016 Pres - Clinton 36.1%, Trump 58.1%
Trump Care vote — YES
This is the Reddest District in California and with a 20 point margin to Trump it won’t be sitting in the Blue column any time soon. 2016 Democratic candidate Wendy Reed is running again. Let’s hope she can build on the 2016 result.
CA-42
PVI - R+9
2012 House Result: Calvert (R) 60.6%, Williamson (D) 39.4%
2014 House Result: Calvert (R) 65.9%, Sheridan (D) 34.1%
2016 House Result: Calvert (R) 58.8%, Sheridan (D) 41.2%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.42%, D - 30.04%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.73%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.44%, D - 29.00%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 42.19%, D - 30.33%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.88%, D - 30.27%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.38%, Romney 56.53%
2016 Pres - Clinton 41.4%, Trump 53.4%
Trump Care vote — YES
Unlike some other Southern Californian Republicans Ken Calvert, assuming he runs, is unlikely to be too troubled in 2018. In a state where half of his GOP colleagues saw their Districts shift remarkably to Clinton his didn’t.
CA-50
PVI - R+11
2012 House Result: Hunter (R) 67.7%, Secor (D) 32.3%
2014 House Result: Hunter (R) 71.3%, Kimber (D) 28.7%
2016 House Result: Hunter (R) 63.5%, Malloy (D) 36.5%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 47.40%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 46.25%, D - 25.97%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 44.70%, D - 25.64%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.10%, D - 27.31%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 42.89%, D - 27.22%
2008 Pres - Obama 39%, McCain 58%
2012 Pres - Obama 37.56%, Romney 60.41%
2016 Pres - Clinton 39.6%, Trump 54.6%
Trump Care vote — YES
Again the Voter Reg and Trump/Clinton numbers say it all. Another republican District that is slowly bluing in a state where others are bluing very quickly. Patrick Malloy is running again for team blue so hopefully some movement/momentum building is happening here.
The 2nd group of 3 Districts may become competitive in 2018, but at this stage this seems unlikely.
CA-22
PVI - R+8
2012 House Result: Nunes (R) 62.3%, Lee (D) 37.7%
2014 House Result: Nunes (R) 72.3%, Aguilera-Marrero (D) 27.7%
2016 House Result: Nunes (R) 67.6%, Campos (D) 32.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 45.19%, D - 34.85%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.32%, D - 33.36%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 45.04%, D - 32.23%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 43.19%, D - 32.84%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 42.82%, D - 32.82%
2008 Pres - Obama 42%, McCain 55%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.6%, Romney 56.6%
2016 Pres - Clinton 42.6%, Trump 52.1%
Trump Care vote — YES
I almost put this District in the Ruby Red category but one thing forced me to reconsider. Devin Nunes. After his atrocious actions in the “Russian Interference” controversy maybe just maybe this may be a competitive race despite all of the data above. Time will tell.
CA-45
PVI - R+3
2012 House Result: Campbell (R) 58.5%, Kang (D) 41.5%
2014 House Result: Walters (R) 65.1%, Leavens (D) 34.9%
2016 House Result: Walters (R) 58.6%, Varasteh (D) 41.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.90%, D - 28.02%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.00%, D - 28.11%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 39.88%, D - 30.49%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 39.64%, D - 30.40%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.4%, Romney 54.78%
2016 Pres - Clinton 49.8%, Trump 44.4%
Trump Care vote — YES
Ah the first of the Clinton Repub Districts. Nobody thought Clinton would carry this District but she did, relatively comfortably. This one is also bluing more rapidly than the above Districts in a part of California (So Cal) that is bluing very rapidly indeed. Probably just out of reach in 2018 but you never know. 2016 candidate Varasteh is saddling up again too which theoretically should help.
CA-48
PVI - R+4
2012 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 61%, Varasteh (D) 39%
2014 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 64.1%, Savary (D) 35.9%
2016 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 58.3%, Savary (D) 41.7%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.79%, D - 28.45%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 43.88%, D - 28.38%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.83%, D - 28.20%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 41.42%, D - 30.01%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.21%, D - 29.84%
2008 Pres - Obama 46%, McCain 51%
2012 Pres - Obama 43.00%, Romney 54.80%
2016 Pres - Clinton 47.9%, Trump 46.2%
Trump Care vote — YES
A District with a Congressman who is a Putin fan that Clinton just carried. Interesting potential and a potential retirement would make it more so. One to watch.
The last group of 5 Districts are almost certainly going to be competitive.
CA-10
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: Denham (R) 52.7%, Hernandez (D) 47.3%
2014 House Result: Denham (R) 56.4%, Eggman (D) 43.6%
2016 House Result: Denham (R) 51.7%, Eggman (D) 48.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 38.29%, D - 40.89%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 38.66%, D - 39.70%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.75%, D - 37.11%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 36.41%, D - 39.09%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 36.42%, D - 38.82%
2008 Pres - Obama 50%, McCain 47%
2012 Pres - Obama 50.6%, Romney 47.0%
2016 Pres - Clinton 48.5%, Trump 45.5%
Trump Care vote — YES
I have always wondered if this District was fools gold for team blue. Denham is reasonably moderate and seems popular. Now i think he is vulnerable. The voter reg numbers have flipped in the last couple of years back in favour of team blue and Denham did after all vote for Trump Care. Shame on him. Eggman got credibly close last year too. There are 5 confirmed Democratic candidates so someone obviously agrees with me.
CA-21
PVI-D+5
2012 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.1%, Hernandez (D) 41.9%
2014 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.5, Renteria (D) 41.5%
2016 House Result: Valadao (R) 56.7%, Huerta (D) 43.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 34.35%, D - 45.40%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 32.65%, D - 47.31%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 30.98%, D - 47.66%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 29.00%, D - 46.37%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 28.83%, D - 46.04%
2008 Pres - Obama 52%, McCain 46%
2012 Pres - Obama 54.6%, Romney 43.5%
2016 Pres - Clinton 55.2%, Trump 39.7%
Trump Care vote — YES
CA-21 has been a bit of a mystery to me to be honest. How can Valadao keep getting elected in such a blue District? Let’s hope 2018 changes that and that his insane vote for Trump Care finally shows the large Hispanic population here that he is no friend of theirs. A good candidate from Fresno or Kings would help enormously.
CA-25
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: McKeon (R) 54.8%, Rogers (D) 45.2%
2014 House Result: Knight (R) 53.3%, Strickland (R) 46.7% - Democrats lost Open Primary
2016 House Result: Knight (R) 53.1%, Caforio (D) 46.9%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.72%, D - 35.33%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.42%, D - 35.41%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 37.19%, D - 37.24%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 35.09%, D - 37.78%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 34.88%, D - 37.63%
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.85%, Romney 49.66%
2016 Pres - Clinton 50.3%, Trump 43.6%
Trump Care vote — YES
Disappointing result here in 2016 for Caforio (who most likely will be running again) to be honest. Intriguing slate of 2018 Democratic candidates too will mean this one garners resources and attention again in 2018. The LA County Democratic Party really needs to make this a priority.
CA-39
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: Royce (R) 57.8%, Chen (D) 42.2%
2014 House Result: Royce (R) 68.6%, Anderson (D) 31.4%
2016 House Result: Royce (R) 57.2%, Murdock (D) 42.8%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.46%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.23%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 38.46%, D - 32.42%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 36.26%, D - 34.39%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 36.09%, D - 34.37%
2008 Pres - Obama 47%, McCain 49%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.09%, Romney 50.75%
2016 Pres - Clinton 51.5%, Trump 42.9%
Trump Care vote — YES
This District came as a bolt out of the blue on election night in the Presidential vote. At current trends it should have team blue lead in voter reg by election day 2018. Royce is a long term incumbent who has never had to run a competitive race. 2018 should change that.
CA-49
PVI - R+1
2012 House Result: Issa (R) 58.2%, Tetalman (D) 41.8%
2014 House Result: Issa (R) 60.3, Peiser (D) 39.7%
2016 House Result: Issa (R) 50.3%, Applegate (D) 49.7%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.77%, D - 28.68%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.49%, D - 28.79%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 40.18%, D - 28.82%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 37.79%, D - 31.20%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 37.71%, D - 31.00%
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 45.66%, Romney 52.40%
2016 Pres - Clinton 50.7%, Trump 43.2%
Trump Care vote — YES
Last but not least comes CA-49. Clinton won it comfortably and first time candidate Applegate got oh so close. He is running again and despite the voter reg disadvantage this one will be a barn burner.
So there you have it. 2018 promises to host a number of competitive house races in California. If Trump continues how he has begun team blue has a unique opportunity to flip a lot of Red Districts.
I am keen to hear your thoughts.