In the end, Quist ran about 8% above the Cook Partisan Political Index (PVI) for Montana. What does this suggest for SC-5 and GA-6?
SC-5
PVI is calculated based on the major party vote only. The PVI for SC-5 is 41 — two points higher than MT. Obviously, 41 + 8 = 49, leaving us 2 % shy. Based on the last congressional race this would lead to a naive outcome of 50R-48D-2L. We have only one poll from Gravis, a polling outfit with a Republican lean and poor performance. It shows the race at 47R-34D-3L with 16 percent undecided. How does this compare with Montana? There the poll from 5/19-21 showed 49R-35D-8L. This doesn’t tell us a lot, other than to confirm that if Parnell runs no better than Quist, he probably loses by less than Quist.
GA-6
The PVI for GA-6 is 42. Thus, the naive adjustment suggests a tied race. The polls prior to the last by inferior Republican outfits have mostly shown Ossoff ahead by 1-2 points. The Democratic vote in the first round totaled 49%, the regular Republican vote 50% with 1% to an anti-Trump Republican. In a State Senate election between two relative unknowns in the most Republican part of the district, the Democrat ran 3% ahead of Clinton and 1% ahead of Ossoff’s 1st round totals. This is likewise equivalent to a tied race. That state race, however, was based on the March electorate. Then the most recent poll by a better outfit (SurveyUSA) showed Ossoff ahead 51-44.
The Ossoff campaign expanded the electorate for the federal election by 5,500 shown as fully processed on 5/19 with 2 more days to go, hearsay reports that the total exceeds 7,000. Finally, the SurveyUSA poll may represent a high point as it followed one of Trump’s worst weeks. Reversion to the mean may suggest a narrowing of this race going forward. Nevertheless, Ossoff should be favored to win the race by a narrow margin in the 2-4% range.
Conclusion
Democrats should be slightly favored in the Georgia race; it will definitely let the air out if they lose. The SC-5 race is an uphill struggle, but is better political terrain than any of the others races than GA-6. But the Democrat is a Goldman Sachs alumnus. Can he match the enthusiasm that got behind Thompson and Quist?