Trump carried the 10th District in rural northeastern Pennsylvania 66-30 last year, and even unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett carried the seat 58-42 as he was losing re-election 55-45 in 2014. However, the DCCC is trying to recruit one familiar Democrat to challenge four-term GOP Rep. Tom Marino, and he sounds interested. Ex-Rep. Chris Carney, who lost to Marino during the 2010 GOP wave, told The Times’ Tribune’s Borys Krawczeniuk that the DCCC is trying to convince him to run, and he says he is thinking about it.
Carney, a former Pentagon intelligence analyst who currently works for Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats in aviation intelligence, ran for a previous version of this district in 2006. The seat had backed George W. Bush 60-40 in 2004, and GOP Rep. Don Sherwood didn’t even face a Democratic foe in 2002 and 2004. However, Sherwood admitted he had a five-year affair with a woman 35 years younger than himself, and he ended up settling a lawsuit after she claimed the congressman had chocked her. While Bush campaigned for Sherwood despite his many problems, Carney beat the incumbent 53-47 during that year’s Democratic wave.
Two years later, Carney won re-election 56-44 even as John McCain carried the seat 54-45. McCain himself and other Republicans even unsuccessfully tried to convince Carney to switch parties the next year, but while he was only too happy to brag about it to his conservative constituents, Carney did not take the bait. But Marino, a former U.S. attorney, ended up beating Carney 55-45 in the 2010 GOP wave. The GOP legislature proceeded to redraw this seat for 2012 and made it even redder, taking McCain’s margin of victory from 54-45 to 56-42.
Carney has been eyeing a comeback bid for a while, but he has never gone for it. In 2011, Carney told supporters that he was considering running either against Marino or neighboring GOP Rep. Lou Barletta depending on the outcome of redistricting. However, redistricting also strengthened Barletta, and Carney sat the cycle out. In 2013, the DCCC tried to recruit Carney to take on Barletta, but he showed no interest. Two years later, Carney expressed interest in challenging GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, but he soon dropped off the radar.
If Carney does run this time, it’s tough to overestimate how tough this campaign would be even in a Democratic wave year. Only about two-thirds of Carney’s old seat is in the current 10th, and he’s been out of politics for years. The GOP also made sure to leave Carney’s home in the 10th, but moved his base to Barletta’s seat. This area is also very conservative, while Marino has none of Sherwood’s considerable baggage to drag him down. Still, Carney does have a good profile and he would give Democrats a credible candidate in case things absolutely go to hell for the GOP (again), and if he distracts Keystone State Republicans a bit, Team Blue won’t complain.