Republicans' 217-213 passage of the American Health Care Act on Thursday guarantees Democrats will have at least one major on-the-record vote to exploit in the next elections. Although it's the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans' willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave.
…
Still, for several dozen Republicans, adding support for the AHCA to their voting record is an unequivocal political risk. And, several of the 20 Republicans who voted against AHCA could end up being blamed anyway,
...
In light of the vote, we are shifting our ratings in 20 districts, all reflecting enhanced opportunities for Democrats.
...
AZ-02: Rep. Martha McSally (R) - Southeast: Tucson, Cochise County
Lean Republican.
CA-25: Rep. Steve Knight (R) - Northern LA County: Santa Clarita, Palmdale
Toss Up.
CA-39: Rep. Ed Royce (R) - Northern Orange County: Fullerton, Yorba Linda
Lean Republican.
CA-45: Rep. Mimi Walters (R) - Inland Orange County: Irvine, Mission Viejo
Lean Republican.
CA-48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) - Coastal Orange County: Huntington Beach
Lean Republican.
CO-06: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) - Denver southeast suburbs: Aurora, Littleton
Toss Up.
IL-06: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) - Chicago west suburbs: Wheaton, Palatine
Lean Republican
IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) - South central: Champaign, Decatur, Springfield
Likely Republican.
IL-14: Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) - Chicago north and west exurbs: Batavia, McHenry
Likely Republican.
IA-03: Rep. David Young (R) - Southwest: Des Moines, Council Bluffs
Lean Republican.
KS-02: OPEN (Jenkins) (R) - East: Topeka, Lawrence
Likely Republican
KS-03: Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) - East: Greater Kansas City
Lean Republican.
MI-08: Rep. Mike Bishop (R) - Central: Lansing, Detroit exurbs
Likely Republican.
MN-02: Rep. Jason Lewis (R) - Twin Cities south suburbs: Eagan, Burnsville
Toss Up.
MN-03: Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) - Twin Cities west suburbs: Bloomington, Plymouth
Lean Republican
NJ-03: Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) - South central: Burlington, Toms River
Likely Republican.
NJ-07: Rep. Leonard Lance (R) - North central: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit
Lean Republican.
OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) - Southwest corner: Cincinnati, Warren County
Likely Republican.
TX-07: Rep. John Culberson (R) - Houston northwest suburbs: Jersey Village
Lean Republican.
TX-32: Rep. Pete Sessions (R) - North Dallas and suburbs: Richardson
Lean Republican
This is how a wave starts. If we can keep up the enthusiasm, work hard, and stay focused on where the real threat is coming from, we might just survive this fascist attack on our democracy and end up changing the world.