On Wednesday, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett announced that he would join the GOP primary to succeed termed-out Oklahoma Republican Gov. Mary Fallin. Cornett’s move was a surprise, though it didn’t quite come out of nowhere. Back in February, Cornett announced that he would not seek a fifth term as mayor and added he was considering seeking a job in state government and wouldn’t rule anything out, though he didn’t mention a particular post.
As the mayor of Oklahoma’s largest city, Cornett should start out with some good name recognition. About half of the state is in the Oklahoma City media market, so many people who live outside of the city will have seen him on TV. Cornett is OKC's first four-term mayor, though that's not entirely by choice. In 2006, just a few months after he overwhelmingly won re-election, Cornett ran for the 5th Congressional District and lost the primary runoff to Fallin 63-37.
Cornett will face a competitive GOP primary. State Auditor Gary Jones, wealthy Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson (who likely cost the GOP the 2002 gubernatorial race by running as an independent), and Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb are already running. We haven’t heard any interest from other Republicans, though Cornett’s surprise campaign is a sign that the GOP field may not be settled. If no one takes a majority in the primary, there will be a runoff.
Oklahoma is a conservative state, but Democrats may have an opening next year. As we’ve noted before, thanks in large part to falling oil prices, Oklahoma's financial situation is an utter mess. Over the years, the GOP dominated state government has instituted large income tax cuts and huge cuts to oil and gas production taxes, and the state is suffering from the loss of revenue. Rural hospitals have been closed, and state troopers are only allowed to drive 100 miles per day. This week, after some long negotiations, Fallin signed a budget, but the state’s woes are far from over. As the Washington Post’s Emma Brown recently wrote, scores of schools across the state have been forced to make painful cuts, and most dramatically, some have adopted four-day school weeks.
While some parents (and certainly many students) like having shorter weeks, it has been on a strain for families that can’t afford an extra day of daycare, and for children who depend on schools for meals. As Brown noted, in most of the districts that have adopted four-day weeks, “the overwhelming majority of students qualify for subsidized meals.” Polling is limited in Oklahoma, so we don’t have a good sense for how voters are reacting. However, last month a survey from Sooner.com gave Fallin a horrific 31-61 favorable rating.
If Democrats can convincingly make the argument that the eventual GOP nominee will essentially continue Fallin's governorship, they may be able to pull off an upset. Two potentially strong Democrats entered the race in recent weeks: state House Minority Leader Scott Inman, a vocal Fallin critic, and ex-state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who narrowly lost the 2010 primary. Ex-state Sen. Connie Johnson, who lost the 2014 special Senate race 68-29, is also running.
