The AJC has published crosstabs on their recent poll. One can see why the DCCC found this a promising district. Only 18% have less than a college education. Unlike the other districts in the special elections, Trump has a national level of disapproval. A plurality of the voters disclaim a decision based on voting for or against Trump, though. Awareness of the election is through the roof. And Trumpcare is heartily disliked. Topline showed 51% Ossoff, 44% Handel.
Demographics — education — less than college 18%, 82% college or more.
Income — <$50K 12%, 50-100K — 21.5%, >100K — 50.7%
Race — White 75.6%, Non-white — 20.4%
15% white evangelical.
Attention to race — following very or somewhat closely 92%, but under 39 85%, non-white nearly as attentive at 89%.
This shows presidential levels of attention.
52% thought this election more important than past special elections, 3% less important, 45 % same.
Attitudes Trump approval — 35- 57
Pence — 44-48
Handel — 42-50
Ossoff — 52-42
Pelosi — 31-58
The attitudes about Trump have infected the attitudes about the Republican Party.
Dem — 43-48
Rep — 35-55
Historically, this is an overwhelming Republican district with nearly all local officials Republican (for races within the district), 43% still say they are or lean Rep, 35% Dem, but only 29% now say they think of themselves as a Republican, 28% think of themselves as a Democrat.
Voting to support Trump — 14%, to oppose 39%, not a factor 45%.
What else is moving people?
Trumpcare
Healthcare — Extremely or very important issue — 81% (94D, 76R, 76I)
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the House GOP Obamacare replacement bill
25F — 62U — 13DK
Although 63% of Trump supporter, 51% of Republicans, and 42% of white evangelicals have a favorable impression, otherwise this unfavorable attitude cut across all income, racial, age and gender classifications with all other groups having a less than 30% approval.
Abortion — doesn’t seem to be helping the Reps. only 43% of Republicans as opposed to 64% of Dems consider it extremely or very important.
Negative factors for Ossoff
51% think that his living outside the district is a factor in their vote.
Taxes is the other issue that cuts against Ossoff in this well-to-do district. 80% of Republicans and 66% of Independents consider it very or extremely important. Although Ossoff has been progressive on most issues, he has promised not to vote for new taxes, and made numerous commercials about fighting government waste, as he needs to in this district.