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The news since late last week on the Senate and Trumpcare is that it's in trouble, that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is having issues getting the 50 votes he needs as he makes concessions to so-called moderates that could end up losing the conservatives. We headed into the weekend with a story from Politico saying just that. A "Republican senator granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conference matters" told Politico that both Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY) were "no" votes.
Worry is increasing among conservatives inside and outside the Capitol that the bill is “tipping toward the moderates," said a Republican working on the repeal effort. And after weeks of sparring, the tug-of-war between conservatives and more centrist Republicans is finally reaching its climax.
CNN follows up Monday morning with a story about how McConnell could be pushing ahead with the bill, knowing that it could fail.
"It might be that McConnell knows he can't get to 50 so he's going as far left as possible to give moderates cover when they do vote for this bill," one conservative Senate aide said.[…]
While conservatives may not be pleased with the changes on the table, moving the bill to the left could help McConnell protect his most vulnerable members. There aren't many endangered Republican members up in 2018, but those who are hail from more purple states, like Dean Heller in Nevada and Jeff Flake in Arizona.
There are likely a couple of things at work here: conservatives are just staking out their position to remind McConnell he needs them, too and/or McConnell is putting the stories out there to pressure the moderates. The supposed concessions he's making to them—which would still destroy health care for millions—could be a way of coopting them into supporting the eventual bill. Throughout it all, he will make sure Republicans are aware of one thing, that repealing Obamacare as been the one thing they've been promising to give their base for the past seven years.
McConnell very rarely goes into a big legislative fight like this without knowing what the outcome will be and he has put this bill into motion, setting the stage for a vote by the end of the month. He's going to be banking on the Republican base being motivated for the midterm elections, gambling that the millions he's taking health care away from won't show up. It's a gamble that's been working for him since 2010.
We've got to change that calculation, and the best way to do it is to raise holy hell with the rank-and-file. If you have a Republican senator call them through the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121 or in their local offices.