This diary is a bit of an expansion of a comment I wrote earlier regarding Jon Ossoff’s candidacy and campaign in Georgia’s 6th congressional district.
In evaluating Jon Ossoff’s loss (in a traditionally red district; current events be damned) please don't underestimate the impact of Ossoff not living in the district he sought to represent. I've seen it before. It's a big, big deal to the locals. His reasons for not living there DO NOT MATTER, nor that he lives mere blocks away from GA06. Residency issues are a negative that is always brought to the forefront by the opposition (See: Santorum, Rick, and Keady, Jim.)
Most times when the opposition emphasizes that a candidate does not live in a district (or municipality), the strategy works. I can promise you that Ossoff lost votes because of this issue, and not because anyone voted *against* him because of it. Potential Dem voters (and maybe even the stray Republican or two) stayed home. Did it cost Ossoff the election?
Again, I've seen it before as recently as 2016 in a New Jersey Dem congressional primary. All I can say is that empirical evidence suggests “yes”.
Why would, in a race that was the most expensive congressional race EVER, would residency issues NOT be an issue (for those outside the district)?
At the root of it: this special election was nationalized rather than localized. That made a big, big difference, IMO. I'm not happy with the results, but as soon as I learned Jon didn't live in GA06, regardless of how close geographically, and regardless of his reasons, I knew it would be problematic.
The GOP and Handel made an issue of it. Was that the tipping point? Not living in the district, I can’t answer with any certainty, but any post-election analysis needs to look at the residency factor. It’s big. Especially in local elections.