Like a polar bear floating south on a melting ice berg Trump continues to be supported by an ever smaller base. Those remaining in the party seem to still mostly be frozen in their Trump support but the whole universe of Republicans is shrinking fast. These are the conclusions of an Emory University working paper.
Consider the celebrated case of Joe Scarborough who has announced the burning of his GOP card since the last election. Joe’s long standing disapproval of Trump is not going to effect Trump’s approval rating AMONG REPUBLICANS any longer since he has left the party.
How big is this lost component of partisan Trump popularity? Gallup is on the higher end of estimates of the certain decline in GOP self identifiers since last November. Gallup shows a 4% decline in the GOP ranks. All polling shows millions of voters leaving the GOP behind. Pew found earlier that the vast majority of those recently leaving the GOP disapprove of Trump.
The Emory paper estimated the effect of declining GOP identification since the election reduces the support of GOP identifiers at the time of the last election by 10 points.
When do these ducks come home to roost? Now GOP officeholders seem most afraid of Trump fans running against them. That should change at the next election when the Republican base suddenly face ruin because there are not near as many of them as there used to be. When the GOP loses dozens of House seats or against the incumbent advantage of this cycle lose a handful of seats in the Senate the blame falls on Trump. A lost election is going to make Trump look like a malodorous lame orange duck — and that will be his collapse in Congress and even among those remaining in the declining GOP. The remaining but dwindling GOP will likely stomach most anything except losing.
2018 can KO the orange menace and save an imperiled Republic and a threatened world from a new fascism.