Governor
Democrats
The governorship was the headline race on Tuesday, and it did not disappoint in the excitement the close polls promised, though not in the way expected. The Democratic race began in 2013, when Eastern Shore state senator Ralph Northam beat Virginia’s most well known Christine O’Donnell impersonator, EW Jackson. Northam made his campaign official in November 2015, and quickly picked up the support of near entirety of the Virginia political establishment. By the time the presidential election happened, it was looking like a primary wasn’t needed. But the presidential election brought an unexpected administration, which freed up US envoy Tom Periello, who was perhaps best known for serving one term as the US house member from Virginia’s 5th congressional district, and coming far closer to surviving 2010 than anyone thought he would.
Much more extensive writeups have been published about the contours of the race, but the simple explanation is that both candidates used to style themselves as moderates in their early career, but have been more vocally progressive recently. While it’s tempting to see this as another Clinton/Sanders primary rehash, the real dividing line was the national vs Virginia political establishment. While a few national organizations such as NARAL backed Northam, Periello was the overwhelming choice of the national establishment from Sanders to Warren to Podesta, and, reportedly, Obama. He ran a campaign with a more populist style, focusing outside the urban areas more than Democratic candidates usually do in the state. While polls never quite seemed to favor Perriello, towards the end of the campaign they showed a close race. Both candidates were expected to win their home turf, with NOVA a tossup and Northam having an edge in Richmond.
The results
Northam won 56%-44%
Area |
Northam |
Periello |
Proportion of Electorate |
Metro Richmond |
58%
|
42% |
12% |
NOVA |
58% |
42% |
39% |
Hampton Roads |
71% |
29% |
20% |
Rest of State |
42% |
58% |
29% |
The commanding margins in the center of the state for Perriello and Hampton roads for Northam came through. Northam won by getting small wins Richmond and NOVA, both went for Northam at about the rate as the overall margin. The main surprise of this map is Appalachia. It’s not a significant portion of the state, but it’s the kind of area that generally is thought of as going for “outsider” types. There could be a few reasons why this corner of the state was more or less a draw in the primary. One is Perriello’s pointed environmentalist opposition to Dominion Power, who not only recently brought new jobs to the region, but stand as something of a symbol of the health of coal to many. Another is that coal country’s relatively recent swing right means that there is an extant Democratic state party in the area, which may have helped Northam. Tom Perriello being more associated with the national party and Obama may also have hurt him there.
Republicans
The Republican primary featured 3 candidates. Ed Gillipse is perhaps the most establishment possible politician. He’s been in politics for decades and never held elected office, spending his time as everything from lobbyist to state party chair. Before running for governor, he was perhaps best known as the sacrificial lamb Republicans ran against Warner in 2014 who almost won because the environment turned sour, but didn’t because he didn’t realize it. His main opponent was Corey Stewart, who on paper didn’t appear too different. He’s spent a decade in politics, and sits on the Prince William Board of County Supervisors. In reality Corey Stewart was so awful of a person he got fired from being the chair of Trump’s campaign in Virginia, and ran a nasty campaign that seemed equal parts Sharron Angle and George Wallace. The final candidate was Frank Warner (no relation to the other famous Warners in VA politics). He, um, existed. A state senator from Hampton roads, he ran a more establishment flavored campaign, but never seemed to get off the ground outside of his home turf. Going into primary day, it was obvious who would win. Gillespie had the party’s backing, Stewart ran a shambolic and often embarrassing campaign, and Warner blended into the wallpaper, so obviously we were headed for a Gillespie blowout.
The results
Never underestimate the power of white identity politics in the GOP. Gillespie spent most of the night essentially tied with Stewart, and only managed 1.2% win, 43.7%-42.5%. Warner continued to exist and took 13.8%.
Since there are three candidates, a map feels inadequate.
Area |
Gillespie |
Stewart |
Warner |
Proportion of Electorate |
Metro Richmond |
49% |
40% |
11% |
8% |
NOVA |
44.6% |
44.4% |
11% |
31% |
Hampton Roads |
39% |
33% |
28% |
20% |
Rest of State |
44% |
46% |
10% |
41% |
Like everyone expected, Warner picked up the most support in Hampton Roads, though he came in third even there. But what’s more interesting is how the Gillespie/Stewart votes shaped up. There was an article a while ago from The Nation, called Trumpism: It's Coming From the Suburbs. The article itself wasn’t too memorable, but the title stuck with me. Buchanan County, Virginia is deep in coal county, and visually it’s the one that’s sort of the northern peak of SW VA. For a while in the primaries it had the “honor” of giving Donald Trump his highest vote margin in the primary. That’s the kind of Republican that we imagine supports Trump, while the suburban Republicans are much more “reasonable”, “moderate”, and “civilized”. But this was the first primary since the presidential that white identity politics were on the menu, and suburban Republicans didn’t seem particularly appalled. This next chart compares the votes in state’s major urban areas*, the suburbs surrounding them, and the rural/small city composition of the rest of the state
|
Gillespie |
Stewart |
Warner |
Proportion of Electorate |
Urban |
43% |
31% |
26% |
17% |
Suburban |
42.8% |
42.1% |
15% |
54% |
Other |
46% |
49% |
5% |
30% |
Urban Republicans were not too supportive of Stewart, though even 31% is shameful. But that 7% difference between suburban and other isn’t all that much, and some simple mental math should tell you that the majority of Stewart votes were suburban (53% to be exact). Trumpism: It’s coming from the suburbs.
Lieutenant Governor
Democrats
The Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary of 2017, also known as the gubernatorial primary of 2021, featured 3 candidates, none of which had held elected office before. While Virginia voters do tend to value experience, they did elect John Hager to lt. governor in 1997 without any, so this was not unprecedented. If you’d heard of federal prosecutor Justin Fairfax before this, it was probably from his close loss in the Democratic attorney general primary of 2013 to Mark Herring, who would go onto win the general by 907 votes, a result which likely pushed Fairfax into the lt. governor primary instead this cycle. Of course saying “this cycle” is a bit misleading, as he’s been campaigning for this race since abut the moment polls closed in November of 2013. Susan Platt has been a background figure in Democratic politics for a while, working as everything from campaign operative to lobbyist to Joe Biden’s chief of staff. Gene Rossi was another federal prosecutor, in his case having spent 27 years in the position. Fairfax and Platt were both fairly standard issue candidates running fairly standard issue campaigns, although Normally, these candidates would be called “establishment”, but that’s not strictly the case. While the power players weren’t opposed to their candidacies, neither was really asked to join the race. In the absence of a Northam or Wagner figure who was ensconced in connections, Fairfax and Platt got the establishment backing, though Fairfax got more and raised more money. Platt, perhaps realizing she was behind, made headlines by calling for Donald Trump’s impeachment, which is traditionally not in the job description of Virginia’s lt. gov. Rossi ran a positive and largely self-financed campaign, with a bit more of a progressive flavor. The other candidates largely did not contend with him.
Results
Justin Fairfax won with 49.2% of the vote, followed by Susan Platt with 39.2%, and Gene Rossi with 11.6%
Unlike Frank Warner, Gene Rossi had no areas of strength. He got that 12% just about everywhere, so I included a map. Clearly Fairfax did very well the Tidewater region, areas with high black population while white rural areas favored Platt, but beyond that, it doesn’t appear as if either candidate had areas of particular strength or weakness.
Area |
Fairfax |
Platt |
Rossi |
Proportion of Electorate |
Metro Richmond |
55% |
32% |
13% |
12% |
NOVA |
46% |
44% |
11% |
39% |
Hampton Roads |
57% |
31% |
12% |
20% |
Rest of State |
46% |
42% |
12% |
29% |
Looking at the state by areas tends to support that idea to a small extent. Fairfax won every region, but was obviously stronger in Richmond and Tidewater. Especially compared to the governor’s race which drew national attention, this primary was more laid back, and likely came down to Fairfax’s organizational advantages. As a side note, this map is a good example of what it looks like to win rural black voters but not rural white voters in a Democratic primary. The different contours of the Northam-Perriello map suggest a more complex dynamic.
Republicans
In something of a parallel to the Democratic side of this race, the lack of opportunity for attorney general attracted three candidates. As a side note, this year was the first time ever that both parties held gubernatorial and lt. gubernatorial primaries in Virginia. Glenn Davis began his political career on the Virginia Beach City Council before being elected to the 84th state house district, centered in Princess Anne. While it looked competitive on paper, he was easily elected twice, and accumulated an undistinguished record. He never received strong backing in his campaign, and his slogan “Make America #1 Again for Business and Growth” demonstrates a certain lack of political instinct. Bryce Reeves is a name some political junkies know as the reason Virginia is so horribly gerrymandered. In 2011, he won the Republicans’ 20th state senate seat by 226 votes, giving them control of the entire government. He’s still in the state senate, but now in SD-17, a much redder district that connects Charlottlesville suburbs, Fredericksburg, and Culpepper, with the rural areas in between. As a legislator, he’s been very conservative, and ran this campaign focusing on his military and police background, as well as projecting a good ol’ boy image. He also wan’t afraid to attack the better financed Vogel with everything he could think of, including her vote for a judicial nominee who was gay. Jill Vogel has probably heard her share of comparisons to Barbara Comstock. Both women went to law school, and got involved with politics shortly after, working for both the national and state parties for decades before seeking elected offices of their own in the state legislature. Jill Vogel’s senate district, an exurban band from Winchester to Fredericksburg, is even mostly in Barbara Comstock’s VA-10. They both project a moderate image despite having voting records putting them in the middle of their caucus, and have both risen in their male-dominated party (Comstock is the only woman representing Virginia federally, and Vogel is one of 3 women in the 21 person Republican senate caucus).
Results
In something of a mirror of the gubernatorial race, Vogel pulled out a narrow win over Reeves, with Davis a distant third: 42.8% to 40.0% to 17.2%.
Also like the gubernatorial race, regional variation makes a map less illuminating than it should be. The regional divide is more than a little telling though.
Area |
Vogel |
Reeves |
Davis |
Proportion of Electorate |
Metro Richmond |
44% |
43% |
13% |
8% |
NOVA |
53% |
31% |
15% |
31% |
Hampton Roads |
39.3% |
39.0% |
22% |
20% |
Rest of State |
36% |
46% |
17% |
41% |
Davis did best in Hampton roads, but was largely in the background. As for Vogel and Reeves, they ran to a tie in Richmond and Hampton roads, but separated themselves elsewhere. While Reeves did well outside of the major metros, especially in the central part of the state, he didn’t manage to run up the score enough to counter Vogel’s crushing advantage in NOVA. And it was crushing, especially in the inner suburbs where she got above 60% of the vote. Making it even more impressive was that a good part of Reeves’s district was in NOVA. While the comparison’s tempting, it’s not quite right to draw an explicit parallel to the governor’s race, especially considering NOVA was essentially a draw in that race.
House of Delegates
There were 26 House of Delegate primaries this year, an unusually high number. Last cycle featured only 10.
- HD-02 (D) : It would be hard to call this seat anything but frustrating for Democrats. In congress and the state senate, this territory is represented by Democrats, and for good reason. In 2012 Obama won it by a wide 59-40 margin, and we narrowly won it in 2013. Unfortunately in 2015 our incumbent retired after failing to win a senate nomination, and Republican Mark Dudenhefer came back from his 2013 loss and won it by 125 votes, an agonizingly close 1% margin. This seat went into 2016 being the bluest seat a Republican held (2nd was only 55-44), and while it may not have held onto that honor, Clinton won it 58-38, and it’s viewed as a top pick-up opportunity, especially now that Dudenhefer opted not to run for reelection. Two candidates ran for this open seat. Jennifer Foy is is a public defender who ran something of a grassroots campaign. She was endorsed by PCCC, Our Revolution, Emily’s List, and other progressive organizations, but faced a fundraising deficit of more than 3:1 and lacked the support of the local establishment. Josh King, a deputy sheriff, was seen as something of an heir apparent to the nomination after narrowly losing the general election in 2013. He raised lots of money, got labor on his side, and received a variety of party endorsements, including Gerry Connolly. Going into the election, King was considered a clear favorite, but the when the returns came in, it turned into the biggest nail-biter of the night, not being decided until the last precinct of the night flipped the lead one final time, and gave Foy a 12 vote win. If you want the narrative of a scrappy underdog coming from behind to win an improbably close race, this is it.
- HD-08 (D): The 8th district is one of the reddest in the state. At 62-33 Trump, only 14 districts were more Republican in 2016, and at 61-37, only 12 were in 2012. Despite that, we not only found a candidate, but 2 filed to run. Steve McBride may share a name with one of the less horrible characters from shameless, but he’s a research scientist at Virginia Tech who’s running something of a technocratic campaign. He pulled in $24,000, a fairly respectable sum for a seat this red, mostly from 5 donors. His opponent was Bryan Keele, a small businessman who never got much traction. McBride won handily, 64-36.
- HD-13 (D): The 13th district lies in the DC suburbs. Represented by Bob Marshall for over 20 years, its shape has grown more and more disfigured in an effort to keep him safe. Marshall himself is something of a character. A hateful and bigoted character who shouldn’t be representing a 55-44 Obama and 55-40 Clinton seat. Among his greatest hits are saying disabilities are a punishment from god for abortion, trying to ban gay service members from the VA National Guard, writing the infamous forced ultrasound bill, physically attempting to stop a mildly pro-immigrant bill from being read, attempting to force teachers to carry guns in school, and most recently, writing a NC style bathroom bill for Virginia that was so toxic it never even saw debate. He’s a nasty piece of work and the VA Dems have made it a point to always challenge him, even in less than stellar years for the party. His only close call however, came in 2013, when T-Mac was winning his district 48-47. In 2016, he drew 4 challengers. Andrew Adams is a veteran whose campaign never got off the ground. Steve Jansen is a former prosecutor and current anti-gun violence advocate who got ARC’s (Gifford’s PAC) endorsement. Mansimran Kahlon is came to America as a young child from India and has been busy since then, as a business owner and party leader. His run, inspired by Sanders, would make him not only the first Sikh in the house, but also one of the youngest state legislators in the country. At 24, he was born after Marshall was first elected. Dianica Roem is a lifelong Manassas native and newspaper reporter, who ran a transportation and education focused campaign. While she was behind in fundraising, she picked up endorsements from local and national orgs,included previous nominees and the PCCC. In the end she won, with 43% to Jansen’s 31%, Kahlon’s 19%, and Adams’s 7%. With her victory, the race took on national significance. Remember how Marshall wrote VA’s bathroom bill? Well I didn’t mention it earlier, but it would have affected Roem personally. She’s a trans woman who’s been open about her transition. The symbolic nature of this race is obvious.
- HD-21 (R): This race has been a weird, scandal ridden mess, on both sides. Let’s start with the district itself. It lies in Virginia beach and has been a narrowly divided toss up for a while. Obama, Clinton, and T-Mac all won it by about 4-5 points, but incumbent Ron Villanueva has largely skated by so far. Being a strong fundraiser in a 2nd tier target is useful like that. Except, he may have been too strong of a fundraiser. Bill Haley (unfortunately not the singer), his tea party flavored primary challenger, was quite adamant that Villenueva was breaking campaign fiance laws, even to the point of using ALL CAPS. Whatever the reason, Haley managed to come fairly close to unseating Villanueva, losing 59-41 despite being outspent 9:1. Yes, Ron Villanueva dropped an incredible $200,000 in the primary. How could the Democratic side top that?
- HD-21 (D): Tom Brock was the first candidate in, running a Sanders inspired campaign focused on grassroots organizing. Kelly Fowler, teacher-turned real estate agent, joined the race in March. Shortly thereafter, old Facebook conversations of Brock using racist and sexist language dropped. And that was more or less the end of the campaign. He claimed they were taken out of context, then apologized, and said he wanted to have a conversation about these issues, but regardless of the context or how he felt now, the damage was done. The house Democrats’ campaign organization took the rare step of endorsing Fowler and called for him to drop out, a sentiment that was not dissimilar from that of local party officials. While Brock didn’t acquiesce to their request, it didn’t really matter. Fowler was able to save up her money and still win 69-31. This race is a good example of why having contested primaries helps the party. Had Fowler not found those Facebook posts (well technically we don’t know it was her, but...), Villaneuva most likely would have, which could have ended our chances in the seat if he felt threatened during the general campaign.
- HD-28 (R): Bill Howell is nothing short of an institution. He’s held this seat for 30 years, and for the last 14 of them, he’s been the speaker of the house. You can think of him as the zeitgeist of Bush-era Republicanism. He’s deeply religious and in love with traditional Goldwater/Buckley/Reagan conservatism. And this year he’s stepping down, leaving the state’s only Obama-Trump seat (Trump by a point and Obama by 33 votes) open. Three Republicans jumped in. Paul Milde is a small business owner, Stafford County supervisor, and something of a conservationist. He has close ties to the establishment, and, oh yeah, he was convicted of dealing cocaine in the 80s and robbery in the 90s. Susan Stimpson was once Bill Howell’s groomed successor, but then went through a rough patch involving a failed lt. gov bid in 2013, a brutally unsuccessful attempt to primary Howell in 2015, and a bizarre 2016 incident where she was arrested for wandering around a Wegmans, rambling to customers, and refusing to leave. Her campaign didn’t get off the ground. Finally, there’s Bob Thomas. He’s a Stafford County Supervisor and owner of small software company. More importantly, he was Bill Howell’s choice to succeed him, and thus won the nomination. The only surprise was that he was held to 49%, with Milde earning 33%, and Stimpson getting 18%.
- HD-31 (D): This seat is somewhat prototypical of our opportunities in November. It lies in traditionally Republican area of NOVA, went for Obama 53-46 and Clinton 53-42, and has a long serving but uncontroversial incumbent in Scott Lingamfelter, who narrowly survived 2013, but had an easier 2015. Two Democrats stepped up to take him on. Elizabeth Guzman is a Sanders endorsed self-identified progressive who came to America from Peru and now works as a social worker. I mentioned Sanders already, but the PCCC, local unions, and some local politicians also got behind her. Sara Townsend is a middle school teacher and our 2015 nominee in this seat. She didn’t have the institutional backing, but she did have name recognition. In the end it was close, 52-48, but Guzman pulled out a victory.
- HD-33 (D): This wealthy exurban seat in NOVA went 56-42 for Romney and 54-40 for Trump. Another sign of our enthusiasm is that instead of barely finding a nominee, two volunteered to run. Tia Walbridge is a farmer from Purcellville. Her opponent was Mavis Taintor. She’s a bit of an enigma, going from co-writing an academic work about peasant revolutions to working on wall street, being an active Republican, donating to Ron Paul, and now finally running as a Democrat. She also raised and incredible $190,000 to Walbridge’s $50,000. Walbridge wound up winning 52%-48%. That may seem to go against conventional wisdom with regard to fundraising, but consider this. Almost all of Taintor’s money came from three sources: herself, a GWU professor, and the husband of a famous poet from Alaska. Walbridge, on the other hand, did a lot of in-district work to get her funds, and the process of talking to people, going to functions, introducing yourself, making and refining your pitch over and over, and generally getting yourself out there is often more valuable than the money itself, especially in smaller races. That may have made the difference here.
- HD-42 (D): The 42nd district is an example for why the GOP gerrymander was so effective. Even though it went for Obama, it did so by a modest 53-46, and T-Mac won it similarly, 53-47. But while the seat votes for Democrats upballot, it has done so narrowly enough that incumbency and ancestral GOP lean could pick off a few voters to give Republican Dave Albo wins. Dave Albo also holds something of a record, being the Republican to do the best in comparison to Ken Cuccinelli, winning by 20 points as Cuccinelli lost by 7. Then 2016 happened, Clinton won HD-42 with a steep 59-36, and Dave Albo, feeling the heat, decided not to run again, ending his tenure with a literal mic drop. Being Clinton’s second best Republican held seat and open, it drew two challengers. Tilly Blanding, a social worker and civil rights activist dating back to segregation, was seen as the the overall favorite. She had SEIU backing, tens of thousands of dollars worth, and the endorsements of big names in the area, including Gerry Connolly. Kathy Tran came to America as a refugee from Vietnam and in her professional career has worked both for the Department of Labor and the National Immigration Forum. Tran was definitely seen as the underdog going into election night, but surprised everyone by winning 54%-46%. She does appear to have done better in areas in with higher Asian population, but the district is only 19 precincts, meaning that that correlation could easily be a false positive. Kathy Tran is likely to be the next delegate from this district, as Republicans have opted not to seriously contest the seat.
- HD-51 (D): HD-51 is fairly comparably to HD-31, a seat that it borders. It went 51-47 Obama then swung left to 52-43 Clinton. The incumbent, Richard Anderson, is relatively uncontroversial, and his fairly strong win in the Democratic year of 2013 scared away challengers for the less than stellar year of 2015. Hala Ayala is a single mother and cyber-security expert in the DHS who’s long been active in women’s groups, many of whom came to her aid, including NARAL, NOW, and Emily’s List. Ken Boddye, a young insurance worker, ran a grassroots progressive type campaign, getting endorsed by Our Revolution and a couple smaller groups. While this may also sound similar to HD-31, there are crucial differences. For one, Ayala secured the support of many local groups, including unions. For another, Boddye seemed to have the opposite of Tainor’s problem. While he raised a comparable amount of money to Ayala, he was considerably outraised locally, and farmed a lot of the work out to an outside group. In an election where 3,000 votes is usually enough to win, local connections are very important, as evidenced by Ayala’s 66%-34% win.
- HD-54 (R): With Bill Howell’s retirement, Bobby Orrock is set to share the title of most senior Republican with majority leader (and potential speaker) Kirk Cox. He’s been serving since his first win in 1989 and hasn’t particularly made waves, doing a good job focusing on agricultural issues in his Spotsylvania area seat. However in 2013 he voted for a controversial transportation bill and narrowly survived a challenge from his right over it. Maybe he still seemed vulnerable from that. That’s the only reason I can think of for Nick Ignacio’s candidacy. Or maybe it’s just that a guy with 19 criminal charges and decidedly strange internet presence including videos with sex toys didn’t know what he was doing. Either way, his candidacy was a joke and he lost 81%-19%.
- HD-56 (D): The 56th district starts near Charlottesville and winds its way into the Richmond suburbs. While Trump’s 56-39 win was less than Romney’s 61-37 win, it was still decisive and the 56th remains red. Two challengers on our side stepped up for this longshot race. Melissa Dart, a health care worker and mother of a special needs child, ran a partly self-financed campaign focusing on health care, a remarkably similar profile to her opponent, Lizzie Drucker Basch. Drucker Basch works to restore historical properties, and is the mother, whose two youngest children needed expensive treatment for an autoimmune disease, which would have cost her over $1,000,000 if not for the ACA. Her campaign was also focused on healthcare and partly self-financed. In the end, Dart won a close 51%-49%. The primary was a relatively quiet affair in comparison to the Republicans.
- HD-56 (R): Peter Farrell has served 3 terms in this seat, and as a young, well liked lawmaker in a safe seat, a lot of people expected him to run for higher office at some point. He surprised everybody by announcing that he would not run for reelection this year to focus on his family and business. This opened the floodgates. Six Republicans filed to run for the seat, creating a free for all. Graven Craig is a party activist and owns a personal injury law firm. He ran a fairly standard issue campaign with a tea party flavor, picking up a lot of establishment support in Goochland and Louisa Counties. Surya Dhakar, and Indian-American dentist, ran on a business conservative platform and got some support Henrico. George Goodwin is a veteran who’s worked on Republican campaigns before, and has a distinctly Tea Party sensibility, earning him the support of similarly minded state senator Mark Peake. John McGuire is a former SEAL and current business owner, both of which he emphasized in his campaigns. He picked up Scott Taylor’s support, as well as a few local pols and some veterans groups. Matt Pinsker, an army reservist and attorney, was the choice of establishment players like Bill Bolling and John Hager, despite also being a tea party type. He self financed nearly $100,000 and was a big spender during the campaign. Jay Prendergast is a radio DJ who filed, made a website, then largely disappeared. The result was McGuire 31-Craig 23-Pinkser 23-Goodwin 11-Dhakar 11-Prendergast 1. Craig and Goodwin both did very in the rural part of the district, but there there weren’t many votes to be found there total, Surya Dhakar and Matt Pinkser both were strong near their business in the Richmond suburbs, but were less successful to non-factors elsewhere, and Predergast barely got any votes. McGuire did consistently acceptably across the district, though perhaps better in the suburbs, and that was enough in the crowded field.
- HD-57 (D): House Minority Leader David Toscano has represented this seat, made very blue by packing as many Charlottesville liberals into one district as possible, since his initial election in 2005. A former Charlottesville mayor, he’s remained very popular in the area, and the occasional challenger he gets have only been of the Republican variety. Despite that, UVA political scientist and Obama and Sanders volunteer Russ Mittiga jumped in. While he got the backing of Our Revolution and DSA, he never actually gave any reason that Toscano should not be reelected, only that it was ”time for new leadership”. As almost universally happens, the popular incumbent defeated the challenger who didn’t have any problems with him. In this case, it was 64-33. This race is mostly notable for effecting a small change in VA Dem policy. Since officeholders input data into the party’s voter file, the party had not been willing to sell it to primary challengers to incumbents, who could use it against the incumbents, in theory. The party upgraded its technology to include the ability to separate out the entries from a particular source, but hadn’t changed the policy until Mittiga complained.
- HD-63 (D): Lashrecse Aird won 40% in a 4 way primary to represent this Petersburg-centric district in 2015. Gerry Rawlinson, a business owner, came in third that year with 21% of the vote and opted to try again. Her campaign was poorly financed, and barely made a splash. Aird won comfortably 72-28.
- HD-64 (D): The 64th has an unsavory origin. It’s comprised of the rural areas between Richmond and Norfolk, and has significant borders with 4 other districts, 63, 74, 75, and 75. Of those 4, 3 have been accused of being used to pack black voters, and a court case singling those out, along with another 9, has spent years in litigation. All of this is to say that HD-64 is horribly, and most likely racially, gerrymandered. Obama “only” lost this district 58-41, but years when he’s not on the ballot have seen lower black turnout, with Clinton losing 59-37 and T-Mac 56-39, making it the reddest seat to see a 3 way primary on our side. Yes, 3 way. Jerry Cantrell is a brilliant guitarist and songwriter best known for his work in Alice in Chains. He lives in Tacoma, WA and is not running for political office. But another man with that name is, and for this district. He’s a Mormon working in college administration, and probably the most ideologically idiosyncratic candidate in this race. He admires Woodrow Wilson, wants to develop new technologies using agricultural products, and describes himself as “pro 2nd and 9th amendments”. Rebecca Colaw is an air force veteran who runs a law firm. She’s also openly queer, but has not pressed this as a campaign theme, for obvious reasons in this rural southern district. Finally, John Wandling is a 74 year old IT professional who ran as something of a progressive firebrand. None of these candidates raised much money at all, and the weak party structure in the area didn’t help them get their names out. Colaw won 38%-33%-29%, with Wandling in 2nd, and Cantrell third.
- HD-64 (R): Rick Morris defeated a democrat in 2011 to claim this district, and this year declined to run again. Hopefully it’s not to spend more time with his family, though, as he’s currently on trial for violence towards them. Two Republicans are running to replace him in the primary, which is still likely tantamount to election in this red seat, even in light of Morris’s charges. Rex Alphin is the Isle of Wright County Supervisor as well as a farmer, a fact he will remind you of at every opportunity. He’s got connections, money, name rec, and literature designed to say nice words that Republicans won’t disagree with. He also got Rick Morris’s endorsement, but that wasn’t trumpeted from the mountains. Emily Brewer is a young business owner, and a tenacious energizer bunny of a campaigner, who attempted to bridge her disadvantage in money, name rec, and establishment support by outworking Alphin, finishing the campaign strong. And she did, winning 61%-39% in one of the biggest upsets of the night.
- HD-67 (D): The 67th, centered around Chantilly, holds a somewhat dubious distinction. At 60-34, it is Clinton’s best district held by a Republican, in this case James LeMunyon. As such, it went from a good target in 2013 and 2015 (having gone 54-45 Obama and 52-43 T-Mac), to one of the top ones. John Carey is a long time progressive activist and current stay at home father. He billed himself as something of a pragmatic progressive. Karrie Delaney bills herself as a community organizer, and the glove seems to fit. She’s led task forces on helping trafficking victims, emergency preparedness, and Fairfax libraries. She’s got connections is what I’m saying, and they came through for her, earning her a slew of endorsements from elected officials and organizations, local and otherwise, as well as a monster $144,000 fundraising total, one of the best of the pre-primary period. Hannah Risheq is an intriguing figure, only 25 and has two masters degrees, and would be the first Muslim and Jewish politician elected to position of this stature in America. She ran a progressive grassroots campaign. Her lack of corporate money may have hindered her, but probably not as much as her decision to join the race in March, later than is advisable in a primary this competitive. The final result was Delaney 65%-Risheq 23%-Carey 12%.
- HD-68 (D): The suburban Richmond 68th is a special district in more than a few ways. It was the Republican held seat that swung hardest to Clinton. Obama lost it 44-55 but Clinton carried it 52-41. That margin may clue you in to another record it holds. At 7.8%, it gave the most of its vote to third party candidates in 2016, just like it did in 2013 (gov race) at 12.5%. And in 2013 it very nearly had the highest rate of statewide ticket splitting, voting for Obenshain 53-47, but Northam 59-41. The 68th, in other words, is unsettled politically. Generically a Republican area, there’s obviously a large contingent who are turned off by extremism, even if they don’t necessarily embrace Democrats if they can help it. I should mention that while Stewart didn’t do too poorly in the suburbs in general, he certainly did in HD-68, only earning 27.6%, making it his 3rd worst district in the state, behind only two deep blue districts in the beltway. With all that in mind, you might expect Manoli Loupassi, the district’s representative since 2008, to be a moderate. Instead he’s been a loyal party foot soldier, with conservative tendencies, even. While he’s blown opponents out of the water when he’s had them, Democrats sensed a weakness this cycle, and three candidates competed to take him on. Dawn Adams is a nurse practitioner with a deep knowledge of healthcare policy, that got her involved in both local politics and academia long ago. She ran a grassroots and (unsurprisingly) healthcare focused campaign, which mixed many progressive social and environmental stances with a more moderate tone and business friendliness. Ben Pearson-Nelson is a Perdue professor with a background in sociology. His campaign was mostly self-funded but still poorly financed, and he failed to make much of an impression. Mary Jo Sheeley is an environmental lawyer and long time Richmond resident. She has experience in organizing, campaigning, and policy activism, and her connections from those, as well as her law career were seen as a significant step up in the race. In a bit of an upset, Adams won with 47% to Sheepley’s 36% and Pearson-Nelson’s 17%.
- HD-70 (D): Delores McQuinn has represented this heavily Democratic Richmond district since she was first elected in 2009, having previously served on the Richmond City Council and School board. She hadn’t been challenged in the primary or general since then, and has racked up a liberal record that suits her district. Nevertheless, community activist Alex Mejias challenged her. Like in the case of HD-57, the challenger never really gave a reason to replace the incumbent, except this time, no major groups went to back for Mejias. He lost to McQuinn 80%-20%.
- HD-72 (R): HD-72 is in many ways a less extreme version of HD-68, which it borders. It’s also an Obama-Clinton district, although it swung only from 45-54 to 49-44. You’d expect it then to be a 2nd tier pick-up opportunity. And it would be, if it weren’t for one man, Jimmie Massie. He’s the representative of this seat, a 5 term incumbent who never made waves, built up a large war chest, and has yet to face a general election challenger. So what did he do to make this seat competitive then? He’s retired, leaving open a seat that Clinton won and T-Mac came close to. While Democrats settled on Schuyler VanValkenburg, two Republicans jumped in. Ernesto Sampson is not a character in a bad romance novel, but instead is a VMI grad with a financial firm who has been involved in Republican politics for years, including a 2009 run for the then heavily Democratic 69th. He ran a bit of a country club Republican campaign, and while he had some support in Henrico, there was one important source of support he didn’t have, Jimme Massie. Massie instead backed Eddie Whitlock, who’s been a fixture in Richmond area Republican politics for decades. With Massie’s support and some deep pockets, he cruised to a 67%-33% victory.
- HD-81 (D): One feature that has divided the Mid-Atlantic from the south is that while suburbs in the Mid-Atlantic have been moving left at a fairly brisk clip over the last couple of decades, in the south they’ve barely backed off from being blood red. That is to say that if the 81st had been in drawn around Richmond or DC instead of Virginia Beach, it would be competitive, or even blue by now, but instead it’s a 37-57 Trump seat that even voted for EW Jackson, meaning it’s not seen as one of the districts seen as competitive, and incumbent Barry Knight isn’t any sort of controversial. Two candidates opted to take him on though. Nancy Carothers filled out her paperwork, and not much else. She barely even had a website, and raised a total of $245, which is a record for this cycle, just not the kind you’d want to set. Her opponent didn’t do too much better. Kimberly Tucker is a retired teacher who founded the local Indivisible chapter and ran on a very common theme for Democrats in HoD races: healthcare. While she raised very little as well (about $2,000), her connections from Indivisible and campaigning tenacity helped her to a 69%-31% victory.
- HD-83 (D): The 83rd is also sits in the Virginia Beach suburbs, but closer to the city, and, perhaps unsurprisingly, less Republican. It’s a 43-51 Trump and 46-53 Romney district. Perhaps surprisingly, T-Mac came closer to winning than either, losing only 44-49. That 5 point loss isn’t too much, and since Northam represented a tidewater district until recently, it’s not crazy to think he could do pretty well in this district, but incumbents take a lot of money and resources to oust, so the 83th, which is at least the 25th or so best pickup opportunity in the state, isn’t being targeted this cycle. And on top of that, the incumbent Chris Stolle comes from a powerful family and would have backup in a tough race. Two Democrats opted to challenge him, kind of. Two candidates filed, but one, Justin Morgan, dropped out. David Rose-Carmack, a Hampton Roads native and political scientist, more or less won the nomination by default, even though he still technically had to compete in the primary.
- HD-89 (D): This Norfolk district is safely blue, and has been represented by Daun Sessoms Hester since a special election in 2012. She opted to return to local politics this year, leaving the seat open. Joe Dillard is Norfolk’s NAACP president, at 26 the youngest person elected to chapter president, and ran a grassroots campaign, backed by a few allies. Jay Jones is a lawyer and lifelong Norfolk resident. More importantly, he is the son of the Jerrauld Jones, the representative for this district from 1986-2002, and later member of the Warner administration. He was the overwhelming choice of power players, statewide and local, for this seat once he decided to run. This race had its share of drama, though, with allegations that the Norfolk Democrats offered Dillard money to drop out of the race. While a special prosecutor found that it did not constitute bribery, it’s still not a great look, and was, as it turns out, unnecessary, as Jones beat Dillard 66%-34%.
- HD-92 (D): Jeion Ward has represented this safely blue Hampton district since 2003. She has a good relationship with labor, serving on an AFT board herself, and has been a quiet workhorse member of the house, as have many Democrats have been in the age of Republican control. Still, this year she found herself in her first contested election since she first entered he house. Mic Harris is a veteran from who settled into Hampton a little over a decade ago, a not-uncommon story. He chose not to attack Ward, but to run has having a “new perspective”. Like the other races with this dynamic, Ward flattened him, 88%-12%.
- HD-99 (D): The 99th district is covers the Northern Neck, the sparsely populated territory between the Potomac and the Rappahannock Rivers, and some of of Caroline County. As with most rural tidewater districts, it has a decently sized black population but a reflexively Republican white population that keeps it in Republican hands, with Trump winning 58-39, and even EW Jackson winning 59-41. Francis Edwards was born in the UK, then became a higher up in QVC, before moving to Weems, a small town on the east coat of the district. He ran a lean, but competent campaign, and was a full time candidate, traveling all over the district to meet voters. Vivian Messner ran a campaign, that I’ll generously call grassroots. She barely raised enough money to get on the ballot, and didn’t even have a website. Still, as a long time resident of Oak Grove, on the far west of the district, she was well known. The final result mostly turned on geography, with each candidate doing well in their respective side of the district, and Edwards winning 54%-46%.
Final Notes
Outside of a couple house elections, the winning candidates in major races weren’t surprising. But the actual margins tell us a few things. Northam’s solid win is a testament to the strength of the VA Democratic establishment in relation to the national organizations. The primary itself was most likely helpful for Northam. The positive and energetic campaign by Perriello energized the base, and forced Northam to sharpen his skills, which were a bit rusty after his lazy campaign in 2013 where he was essentially guaranteed victory. Perriello also immediately endorsed Northam and has been a visible presence in aid of VA Dems on the campaign trail. But while the Democratic primaries reaffirmed traditional notions of how Virginia campaigns function, the Republican primaries are a warning sign for the VAGOP.
You see, after 2013, when all statewide Republican nominations were decided by caucuses and the result was two terrible extremist choices and one normal candidate that was likely sunk by the other two, VAGOP leaders knew exactly what the problem was-the caucuses, which were obviously reflecting the desired of true believer activists over primary voters, who they knew would never have voted for someone like Ken Cuccinelli or EW Jackson. So, they fought hard for primaries and got them. Then the campaign started, and Gillespie had every advantage: name rec from his 2014 senate run, scores of endorsements, and a more than 3:1 spending advantage over his closest rival, Corey Stewart. It’s hard to describe just how embarrassing Stewart’s campaign was, in addition to being hateful. It was disorganized, with ads that were amateurish enough that you’d be forgiven for being surprised when the narrator said “for governor”. He was caught editing his own Wikipedia page and couldn’t even get endorsements from local GOP officials in his home county. And yet, Stewart almost won, as did similarly objectionable Bryce Reeves in the lt. governor’s race. While Stewart lost, he demonstrated a viable coalition in statewide primaries that will only grow stronger as the VAGOP continues to bleed its more moderate suburban members and pick up voters in the southwest of the state, voters who the VAGOP is currently funding an effort to get registered. While there are clouds on the horizon, in the short term, they did get the nominees they wanted, although Corey Stewart, it may shock you to learn, was not a particularly gracious loser. He has still not endorsed Gillespie, even going as far as to say “There’s one word you’ll never hear from me, and that's 'unity.'” Perriello enthusiastically endorsed Northam the night of the primary.
In the HoD races, there were a few surprises, but no real shocks. Neither party really screwed anything up and nominated someone unelectable in a competitive seat. Virginia is one of the most incumbent friendly states in the country, and all of the incumbents running had a good night in their primaries. Well all but one, that is. Ron Villanueva endured a personal and extremely negative campaign against him and massively outspent his opponent, only to win by a relatively narrow 59-41. That makes his race a little more interesting, as the Democrats nominated the more “clean” candidate, and HD-21 is an Obama-Clinton district, albeit narrowly, by 5 points both times.
But beyond the specifics, there’s one figure that augers well for Democrats: 542,816 to 365,782. That’s how many voted the Democrats and Republicans had in their primaries, respectively. Breaking that down by county, you get the map I used as a header
which would not be a bad outcome at all if it came to pass in November.
*Alexandria and Arlington from NOVA; Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, and Chesapeake from Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Roanoke.