The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
● MD-06, MD-Gov: Ah, just what Democrats have been clamoring for: a rich moderate former banker who likes to punch at the left is running for president! All the luck in the world to Rep. John Delaney. Later, bro.
Campaign Action
Anyhow, Delaney's decision to leave Maryland politics behind for the national scene impacts two elections next year. One is the race for governor, which he'd been contemplating for some time. With Delaney gone, other candidates either in the contest or considering it now no longer have to worry that he might flood the race with his own money (estimated net worth: $215 million).
Beyond that, though, Delaney doesn't have much of a base or even a profile outside of his congressional district, which includes a large portion of Montgomery County in the D.C. suburbs, as well as some heavily Republican territory in the ancestrally red northwest corner of the state. Based on those considerations alone, he probably wasn't keeping anyone out of the primary for the right to take on GOP Gov. Larry Hogan.
Rather, it's that House seat where Delaney's departure will be more acutely felt. Maryland was one of just a handful of states where Democrats controlled the redistricting process ahead of the 2012 elections, and lawmakers redrew the GOP-held 6th District to make it more amenable to a Democratic candidate—specifically Rob Garagiola, the state Senate majority leader at the time. The old 6th had gone 58-40 for John McCain in 2008, but the current version voted 56-42 for Barack Obama that year.
In a surprise, though, Delaney, then a political newcomer, used his personal wealth and an endorsement from Bill Clinton to crush Garagiola 54-29 in the primary. Delaney went on to unseat longtime Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett by a wide 59-38 margin, making his hold on this district look secure. Looks, however, proved deceiving, as Delaney nearly got a huge shock the following cycle, beating back an unheralded GOP opponent by just a single point in 2014.
That sort of result could prove worrisome for Democrats, who now are tasked with keeping this seat blue in another midterm year. Fortunately, the 2018 elections are shaping up to favor the Democrats, but Republicans will likely make a play for the 6th regardless, and Team Red has a large bench in northwest portion of the seat, which includes Hagerstown. But Democrats retain the advantage, as Hillary Clinton carried the district 55-40, a little bit better than Obama's 55-43 win four years earlier.
And while Delaney was weighing a run for governor, several Montgomery County Democrats in fact began taking steps to prepare bids to succeed him. The furthest along are state House Majority Leader Bill Frick and Del. Aruna Miller, both of whom have already started raising real money.
It's also possible that another very rich guy could try to follow in Delaney's footsteps: Businessman David Trone, who owns a chain of liquor stores, had said he's considering the race, too. Trone's one prior stab at elective office didn't go very well, though, as he spent $12 million last year seeking the neighboring 8th District (which was then open), only to lose the primary 34-27 to then-state Sen. Jamie Raskin.
Most of the Democratic candidates who end of running will probably hail from Montgomery County, though it's possible that some from Frederick County could eye this race. As is often the case with open seats, we're likely to hear from more names on both sides soon.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Alright, we've got another poll of the Aug. 15 GOP primary for Alabama's special Senate election that's unfolding in this odd, odd-numbered year. For the Raycom News Network, local Republican pollster Strategy Research finds appointed Sen. Luther Strange edging former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore 35-33, with Rep. Mo Brooks a dismal third at 16. Strange's standing is similar to the 33 percent that a recent poll from Cygnal, another GOP pollster from Alabama, gave him, though in that survey, Moore was further behind with 26 while Brooks also had just 16 percent there.
Strategy Research also has some numbers for the Democratic primary. Unfortunately, they find a mysterious Some Dude with a famous name—Robert Kennedy, Jr.—leading the one serious candidate, former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, 49-28. Jones is a very long long-shot, but Kennedy is a no-shot, so hopefully Jones is spending whatever he's got in these last couple of weeks to boost awareness of his campaign. If no one clears 50 percent in either primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a Sept. 26 runoff, but if this poll is correct, Kennedy is on the verge of walking away with the Democratic nomination.
● MI-Sen: The Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, has released a survey of a hypothetical matchup between Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Republican Robert Ritchie (aka Kid Rock) and find Stabenow trailing 49-46. Unsurprisingly, they also find … do we call him Ritchie on second reference? Kid Rock? Just "Rock"? oy … they also find the vulgar singer-songwriter and vocal Trump supporter dominating in a GOP primary with 50 percent of the vote. (None of the actual declared candidates breaks out of the single digits.) Mr. Rock recently said he'd announce whether he'll actually challenge Stabenow "in the next six weeks or so," which would give him until a little bit after Labor Day to decide.
Gubernatorial
● SC-Gov: Well, no one seems to be particularly afraid of Henry McMaster, the guy who became governor of South Carolina after Trump beamed up Nikki Haley to serve as his U.N. ambassador. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant, who ascended to McMaster's post when McMaster got bumped upstairs, just announced that he, too, would join the GOP primary, which also features former state health department chief Catherine Templeton. Bryant, who was a state senator until he was promoted this year, adds that he plans to self-fund "a significant amount," though he didn't offer a specific dollar-figure.
McMaster's been weakened by an ongoing—and expanding—corruption investigation; while he hasn't been named as a target, his longtime consultant is in the crosshairs, and the probe hasn't reflected well on the governor. In another state, Bryant's entry might actually have been a rare bit of good news for an embattled office-holder like McMaster, since crowded nomination battles usually benefit incumbents. But as we've noted before, there's no getting saved by the clown car in South Carolina: If no candidate takes a majority of the vote, then the top two move on to a runoff.
House
● AZ-02: Rep. Raul Grijalva, the longest-serving Democrat in Arizona's congressional delegation, has endorsed Mary Matiella, a former assistant secretary of the Army, in the race to challenge GOP Rep. Martha McSally. Interestingly, Grijalva chose Matiella over Ann Kirkpatrick, a former House colleague who used to represent the 1st District but is now seeking a comeback in the 2nd. Also running is former state Rep. Matt Heinz, the Democrats' 2016 nominee.
● IL-06: GOP Rep. Peter Roskam is a tough campaigner and a monster fundraiser (he pulled in an eye-popping $833,000 in the second quarter alone), but he nevertheless keeps attracting new Democratic opponents. The latest is businesswoman Becky Anderson, a city council member in Naperville, a city of 147,000. Interestingly, of the half-dozen other Democrats running here, five are women, making Anderson the sixth.
Other Races
● TX-AG: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was indicted two years ago on charges of securities fraud, is finally set to go on trial on Dec. 11. However, two prior trial dates were previously cancelled due to disputes between prosecutors and Paxton, so don't book any non-refundable plane tickets just yet. Paxton, a Republican, is accused of misleading investors in two companies he had solicited funds for without disclosing that he was getting compensated by those same firms, prior to getting elected to his current post. Paxton has long denied the allegations and insists he will run for a second term as attorney general next year.
