Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation hits Illinois, where a two-year long budget standoff between the Democratic legislature and GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner came to an end on Thursday when the legislature voted to override Rauner’s veto and pass a spending plan. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new data sets; you can also find all of our calculations from 2016 and past cycles here.
Illinois was one of the very few states where Democrats were able to draw the legislative and congressional maps after the 2010 census. However, while Team Blue holds strong majorities in both chambers of the legislature, they’ve been locked in a long and bloody struggle with Rauner, who unseated Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014. Democrats ended the 2014 cycle with a 71-47 majority in the state House, which was exactly the three-fifths majority they needed to override Rauner’s vetoes. Democrats also held a 39-20 Senate edge, three more than they needed to override vetoes. Team Blue couldn’t afford any defections in the House if they wanted to pass a budget without GOP help, but they got one.
In 2016, state Rep. Ken Dunkin provided the key vote that prevented his fellow Democrats from reversing Rauner’s cuts to key social services. Speaker Mike Madigan declared war on Dunkin, who represented a safely blue Chicago seat, and Barack Obama himself even recorded an ad for Juliana Stratton, Dunkin’s primary foe. Rauner and his allies spent heavily to boost Dunkin in the Democratic primary, but Stratton won 68-32. However, Team Blue lost seats even as Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump 56-39 in the state. While Democrats still held a 37-22 Senate supermajority, their smaller 67-51 House edge meant that they needed at least four Republicans to help override a Rauner veto.
Illinois’ long budget mess continued for months into 2017, with the state’s credit rating in real danger of getting downgraded to junk status. On Thursday, the legislature finally voted to override Rauner’s veto and pass its first budget in two years. Ultimately, the critical override votes got exactly the minimum amount of support they needed in each chamber. (The House actually voted to override the vetoes of three bills; in this post we’ll be referring to the most important of them, SB-09, which raised income taxes.) Illinois’ financial situation is still far from solved, and Rauner and his allies are hoping that voters will react badly to the legislature’s decision to raise taxes as Rauner runs for re-election next year.
The wealthy Rauner spent heavily in the 2016 legislative races, and we’re likely to see more action there in 2018 as well. However, it’s unclear exactly where the battleground districts will be. While Clinton’s 56-39 statewide victory was very similar to Obama’s 58-41 win over Mitt Romney, there were plenty of swings in each direction. Clinton outpaced Obama in the Chicago suburbs, but downstate Illinois, the vast area outside the Chicago metro area, went the other way.
We’ll start with a look at the Senate, where half the members are up in presidential years, and the rest are up in midterm cycles. Clinton carried 42 of the 59 seats, four more than Obama took in 2012. Six seats flipped from Romney to Clinton, while only two went from Obama to Trump. Both of those Obama/Trump seats are in Democratic hands, though only one of them was up last year. Democratic state Sen. William Haine, whose St. Louis-area SD-56 flipped from 50-48 Obama to 52-42 Trump, did not even face GOP opposition in 2016. State Sen. Andy Manar, another Democrat from downstate Illinois, last won in 2014 by a 56-44 margin; his SD-48 went from 50-48 Obama to 56-39 Trump. No Senate Democrats hold Romney/Trump seats. Both Democrats voted for the veto override, and Haine even attended despite ill health.
All six Romney/Clinton Senate seats are held by Republicans, while Neil Anderson is the one Republican in a Obama/Clinton seat. The least Trump-y GOP-held seat is SD-24, located in DuPage County in suburban Chicago. This seat swung from 52-46 Romney to 53-40 Clinton; Republican Chris Nybo was last on the ballot in 2014, when he won 60-40. Anderson’s Rock Island-area SD-36 moved in the other direction, going from 60-39 Obama to just 49-45 Clinton. Anderson also will next be up in 2018. The one Senate Republican to vote for the override was Dale Righter, who actually represents Trump’s single best seat. Righter’s SD-55 went from 66-32 Romney to 74-20 Trump, though Righter won’t need to face primary voters until 2020.
One Republican who actually did win while his seat was swinging against Trump was Daily Kos Elections favorite Jim Oberweis. Oberweis, a wealthy dairy magnate, infamously lost five straight congressional and statewide races in the first decade of the 2000s, earning himself the nickname “the Milk Dud.” Oberweis finally scored a win in 2012 when he won SD-25, a suburban Chicago seat that backed Romney 53-45. Oberweis then proceeded to launch a longshot bid against Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin in 2014, and he predictably lost 54-43. But last year Oberweis defended his seat 55-45 even as Clinton was winning it 48-45.
We’ll now take a look at the state House. Clinton won 76 of the 118 seats, trading seven Obama seats for eight Romney districts. Thirteen Republicans hail from Clinton turf, while four Democrats represent Trump seats. Of that quartet of Democrats, two hold Romney/Trump seats. Democratic state Rep. Brandon Phelps won his downstate HD-118 58-42 last year even as his seat shifted from an already tough 58-40 Romney to a brutal 68-28 Trump. Fellow downstate Democratic incumbent Jerry Costello Jr. didn’t face any opposition in HD-116, which went from 57-41 Romney to 66-29 Trump. On Thursday, Phelps voted to override the veto, while Costello opposed it. The two Democrats in Obama/Trump seats also split their votes, with Daniel Beiser voting yes and Katie Stewart voting no. No Democrats hold any of the Romney/Clinton seats.
Of the 13 Republicans in Clinton seats, only four hold Obama/Clinton districts. Of the eight Obama/Trump seats, six are held by the GOP. The Republican with the least Trump-y seat is Peter Breen in HD-48. According to our calculations, Romney won this DuPage County seat by 10
votes, but Clinton won it 55-38. However, Breen
defended his district 57-43, and he voted against the override. One of the big questions of 2018 will be whether districts like this that were repelled by Trump continue to favor the GOP downballot, or if he’ll do them more damage from the White House.