This week on Diane Rehm’s podcast, she interviewed Edward Luce, author of a new book, “The Retreat of Western Liberalism”. He is the Washington columnist for the Financial TImes. His analysis of the large forces at work that got us to the rise of populaism (Brexit, Trump) and where we are headed seem right on target to me.
By “liberalism” he does not mean the American definition of “left”, but the historic movement going back to the 17th century that led to the modern idea of democracy. In fact, he says that liberalism is a prerequisite to democracy.
- Populism is rooted in the weakening of the middle class and the dissasisfaction and anger arising from that. Trump tapped into this very well.
- Trump is not the cause of populism — he is a symptom.
- This retreat has been going on since 1978.
- The rise of China’s manufacturing ability is a major factor.
- Tax policies since Reagan/Thatcher have made it worse since they they highly favor influential players like the wealthy and corporations.
- The lack of training opportunities in the US and England make them badly positioned to deal with the job losses caused by China and by automation. He points to Germany, where it is possible to be educated for having a job without necessarily having a college degree.
- Trump (and actually Paul Ryan) are heading America in the exact opposite direction to what Trump campaigned on.
- North Korea is a complete wild card, since 31-year old Kim Jung-Un’s reign is completely illegitimate and the threat of being a nuclear power is the only thing that keeps him in his position.
Listen to the podcast linked above — it is just the first half of the program.