The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading off
● NV State Senate: Shady GOP antics are afoot in the Silver State.
Nevada Republicans are, understandably, less than thrilled about losing what had been a slim 11-10 majority to the Democrats in the 2016 elections. The loss of Senate control coincided with a dramatic power shift towards Democrats in the state Assembly, where Republicans went from a 24-15 majority (plus one Libertarian) to a 17-25 minority overnight last fall. And one senator added insult to the GOP’s new minority-status injury by leaving the Republican caucus a few days after the election, declaring herself an independent and caucusing with Democrats, giving them an effective 12-9 majority in the state Senate. Only GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval stands between Republicans and relative political irrelevance in the state.
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Republicans theoretically have a chance for a comeback next year, but their electoral prospects are less than sunny in the upper chamber. In 2018, the half of the state Senate that wasn’t on the ballot last fall is up for election. Unfortunately for the GOP, however, the 10 Senate seats going before voters next year include only three districts currently held by Democrats, all of whom survived the rather difficult 2014 cycle with strong performances. The most viable pickup “opportunity” for Republicans is to replace party-switcher Patricia Farley in a seat where Clinton edged Trump 48-47. But that only matters if they can successfully play defense, because one Republican incumbent on the ballot next fall currently occupies a seat Clinton carried easily (52-43), giving Democrats an opportunity to further expand their majority.
So, faced with a tough election cycle, Republicans could attempt to do things like recruit great candidates, raise a ton of money, or resign themselves to working cooperatively with their Democratic colleagues for the next three years to advance policies that move Nevada forward.
Instead, Republicans are trying to trigger election do-overs in three districts: two in seats they lost last fall and one in a competitive district they worry they can’t win in a general election. The third senator they’re trying to recall—Farley, who now caucuses with Democrats—isn’t even running for re-election, but Republicans are clearly worried they won’t pick her open seat back up.
Multiple media outlets are already decrying Republicans’ attempt to recall Farley and two of her colleagues, Democratic Sens. Joyce Woodhouse and Nicole Cannizzaro. Provisions for recalling elected officials exist in state law, but to date, no Nevada legislator has ever been successfully recalled from office.
For that track record to change, petitioners must get signatures from 25 percent of each district’s voters who participated in the 2016 elections within 90 days. The organizations behind the signature-gathering efforts won’t reveal the rationale for these senators’ recalls (legally, they don’t have to until signatures are submitted). Sandoval and most GOP state senators are distancing themselves from the recall efforts, but no Republicans have been willing to condemn it on the record. Republican Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson, however, says the recalls are a response to a legislative session he decried as “pro-felon and anti-business.”
Roberson’s statement gets closer to the dirty heart of the matter: Democratic senators cast votes Republicans don’t like. Elections matter; winners get to govern. Democrats in Nevada have conducted normal legislative business, proposing and voting on bills, some of which Republicans also supported, some of which they did not.
Being in a legislative minority is no fun, and Republicans reasonably expect to be stuck there through the next election cycle. But triggering new elections just to undo the results of the most recent election simply because you don’t like them is a lousy way to do democracy, and it effectively demonstrates why Republicans deserve their minority status. They can’t sell their candidates or their ideas to the electorate, so they’re attempting to trigger (historically) lower-turnout special elections in the hope it will give them more control over who shows up at the ballot box (although recent special election results suggest Republicans are screwed in that regard, too).
We won’t know until late October or early November whether these efforts to trigger recalls will be successful, but the mere fact that Republicans are attempting this farce is both troubling and an insult to these districts’ voters, who sent the candidates of their choice to Carson City as recently as last fall. But regardless of the success of these antics, the recall attempts themselves prove Nevada Republicans are willing to take extreme measures to take back the majority and merit continued scrutiny, lest they try to pull further shenanigans.
Senate
● IN-Sen: This is just too enjoyable not to read. Then click this, and this for more context.
● ND-Sen: State Sen. Tom Campbell just recently became the first prominent Republican to join next year's race against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but he is already out with his second TV ad. The segment features a shot of Trump before Campbell advocates: "cut spending, build the wall, bold tax reform, and term limits." Campbell's spot introduces himself as a "conservative farmer" and "not a career politician," conspicuously omitting that he has served in the state senate since 2012.
● WV-Sen: In case there were still any doubts, West Virginia's Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin reiterated on Friday that he won't be joining Trump's cabinet, saying "That's not going to happen." Manchin faces a difficult re-election battle next year in this 68-26 Trump state, and Democrats would almost certainly be unable to hold Manchin's seat without him.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Former GOP state Senate President Ben Stevens revealed in an interview on Thursday that he is considering running for governor against independent incumbent Bill Walker next year. Like his father, the late Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, the younger Stevens was also the subject of a federal investigation into political corruption last decade. While Ben Stevens was never convicted like his father was in 2008, or even charged with a crime, the details of the investigation surely don't make him look good.
While he was serving in the legislature, Stevens was paid over $240,000 for "consulting" for Veco, which the Alaska Dispatch News described as a "politically active oil-field services company at the center of the investigation and whose executives testified in subsequent corruption trials." Stevens never accounted for what he did to earn that money, and a Veco executive testified in another legislator's trial that it was a bribe, but Stevens went uncharged and didn't seek re-election to the state Senate in 2006.
While Sen. Ted Stevens was a four decades-long political institution in Alaska, he narrowly lost his own bid for re-election in 2008 to Democrat Mark Begich after the incumbent was convicted a mere week before the election on several counts of lying on Senate ethics forms. That conviction was later overturned, and Stevens died in a plane crash in 2010. However, it's unclear if the lingering odor of corruption surrounding both members of the Stevens family will prove to be a major hindrance if Ben Stevens runs for office again.
● FL-Gov, FL-18: Back in December, former Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy hadn't ruled out running for governor or his old 18th Congressional District again in 2018, but on Friday he confirmed to CNN what had long appeared likely: He won't be running for office next year. Murphy gave up his Palm Beach and Treasure Coast-area House seat to challenge Republican Sen. Marco Rubio last year, but lost by 52-44. His options for federal office in 2018 were limited, since Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is seeking re-election and freshman GOP Rep. Brian Mast appears heavily favored after Trump won the 18th District by 53-44. However, the 34-year-old Murphy didn't rule out running for office again in some future election cycle.
House
● CA-10: Former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, a Democrat, had previously said she was considering a campaign for California's 10th District. She recently filed to run with the FEC, but Madueno has yet to formally announce whether she's running or if this is just an "exploratory" phase. This Modesto-based seat favored Hillary Clinton 49-46, but Republican Rep. Jeff Denham narrowly won his fourth term by 52-48 in a heated race last year.
● CO-06: Former Obama-administration Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who had previously served as a Democratic senator and state attorney general in Colorado, gave his backing to Jason Crow in the Democratic primary in Colorado's 6th District. Crow, who is an attorney and former Army Ranger, doesn't have the formal backing of the DCCC. However, key national Democrats like New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, who chairs the DCCC, have made it known that they favor Crow. He faces a field that includes clean-energy expert Levi Tillemann for the nomination to take on Republican Rep. Mike Coffman in this suburban Aurora-based seat, which backed Hillary Clinton 50-41.
● MA-03: On Friday, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh announced that Democrat Daniel Koh will resign as his chief of staff at the end of August. Koh is reportedly preparing to run to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Niki Tsongas in Massachusetts' 3rd District, but he has so far only refused to rule out running rather than directly express his interest in the race. Although the 3rd District covers the Merrimack Valley and no part of Boston, the 32-year-old Koh is originally from Andover. This district supported Hillary Clinton by 58-35, and should heavily favor Democrats next year.
