Popular vote loser Donald Trump continues to splinter the Republican party with support for him emerging as the key early issue in Republican primaries. It's not just Trump policies, it's Trump himself and he's making it personal, taking an active role in attacking incumbents who he feels are too critical of him.
Loyalty to Trump has quickly become the most potent issue for the Republican base, according to a dozen candidates and strategists immersed in 2018 races. It has already put Sens. Jeff Flake and Dean Heller under pressure in their states, sparked bickering between GOP candidates in two of Republicans’ top 2018 targets, Indiana and West Virginia, and sunk one candidate running for Alabama’s open Senate seat.
“In any state where Trump has an approval [rating] of 85 percent or better among GOP primary voters, it’s an effective weapon,” said Steven Law, president of Senate Leadership Fund, the Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, while warning every state and every race is different. Ahead of the first round of voting in Alabama’s special Senate election this month, the PAC slammed Rep. Mo Brooks’ over his criticism of Trump in 2016.
Brooks went on to finish a distant third in Tuesday’s primary, a warning to candidates on both sides of the old divide between establishment Republicans and right-wing rebels. For the National Republican Senatorial Committee and establishment Republicans, it illustrates how similar attacks could damage Heller and Flake, who are also facing pressure from Democrats gunning for their seats.
The most immediate worry is in Arizona, where Flake’s constant stream of criticism of Trump in a new book, on cable news and, most recently, in a New York Times op-ed has hurt his standing among the president’s supporters. Trump, who is holding a rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, tweeted in support of Flake’s primary challenger last week. “Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate,” Trump wrote. “He's toxic!”
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With Trump headed to Phoenix on Tuesday, both sides released dueling web ads, one from Ward attacking Flake for criticizing Trump, and one from a Mitch McConnell-aligned Super PAC highlighting Ward's "embarrassing behavior and dangerous ideas."
The problem for the incumbents runs deeper than just Trump tweets—his team runs the Republican National Committee, and the NRSC needs the sign-off of the RNC for using party funds to help the incumbents—not just Flake, but also Dean Heller in Nevada who has been unsuccessfully trying to walk a line between his previous position on Trump—"I vehemently oppose our nominee"—to proving his loyalty, recently revealing to a reporter that he voted for Trump last fall. Heller's dilemma most recently played out in his bad Trumpcare vote which followed weeks of Heller waffling.
But it's not just in the purple states like Nevada and Arizona—House primary fights in West Virginia and Indiana are centered on Trump and whether the candidates show proper—or too much—fealty to him. This is after just seven months of Trump in charge and one big legislative fail. It's going to be a long, long 2018 for Republicans.