The raw data has been floating around for quite some time now, and I think anyone who had a peek at it has been bracing for the worst. Well, the definitive analysis has now been delivered. It’s positively revolting. Without a doubt, the purists among us elected Trump.
The Guide to the 21016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, authored by statisticians from Harvard, UMass Amherst and YouGov and based on data assembled by researchers from 60 participating universities, was released yesterday. It concludes that, on a national basis, those who voted for Sanders in the primary voted in the general election as follows:
That’s not an image error. 12% voted for Trump. Another 11% voted third-party or didn’t vote at all.
In the critical states, 16% of those who voted for Sanders in the PA primary voted for Trump in the general. In WI and MI, it was 9% and 8% respectively. To put this into raw numbers, Sanders-to-Trump voters ultimately gave Trump the margin he needed to win in each of those states:
- In Wisconsin, roughly 51K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 22K votes.
- In Michigan, roughly 47K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 10K votes.
- In Pennsylvania, roughly 116K Sanders voters backed Trump in a state he won by just 44K votes.
Keep in mind that a Sanders-to-Trump vote is doubly painful because it likely represents a net +2 for Trump (absolute +1 vote for Trump and likely -1 vote for Clinton). Also, the above analysis in these three states is before you even get to Sanders voters who protest voted or didn't vote at all.
And here’s an extra kick in the balls — these folks were not Rs and were generally ideologically progressive:
They fucking did it out of purist spite, apparently thinking they had the luxury to do so (i.e., Clinton would win anyway) or they were somehow rejecting the status quo. We now are enduring a national nightmare which will deleteriously impact the political and socioeconomic trajectory of this nation for decades to come.
Elections have consequences. Until progressives understand that and vote with discipline in every federal, state and local election, we will be forced to endure the absolute insanity you see now. We can only be a political force when we vote en masse all the time, create political momentum and bring the rest of America along with us.
THE SINGLE GREATEST ISSUE FACING THE WORLD —AND NOT JUST THIS GREAT NATION — IS THE FACT THAT PROGRESSIVES IN THE U.S. ARE NOT DISCIPLINED VOTERS AND THEREBY CEDE POWER TO THE UNHINGED GOP. IT IS THE ISSUE THAT SUPERSEDES ALL ISSUES.