National Storm Center 1 PM Update here: Now forecast to become a possible Cat 4 or near Cat 4 storm.
Update 12:15 PM CDT: As expected, Harvey has been upgraded to a Cat 1 hurricane. Next National Weather Service update at 1 PM CDT — DS
A storm called Harvey has spun up out of nowhere and is now threatening the Texas coast. It may strengthen to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane before it makes landfall. Harvey started as a tropical depression, nudged into tropical storm status several days ago, weakened earlier this week, and is now moving over warm water, rapidly intensifying, and bearing down on the Texas coast just south of Houston as of Thursday at noon. More from the Washington Post on this quickly changing storm:
Because it is positioned over extremely warm waters and strengthening so fast, Harvey may become the first major hurricane landfall, rated Category 3 or higher (on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson intensity scale) to strike U.S. soil in 12 years. This is now the official forecast of the National Hurricane Center, which predicts the storm to make landfall as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds.
Harvey could make official landfall as early as Friday or as late as Saturday depending on course changes and other variables. It is expected to slow down and/or stall on or just past the coast. The current course puts the storm into Corpus Christi and a small shift could put the most powerful, northwest corner of Harvey right on top of parts of the highly populated Houston region.
Per usual, bear in mind that a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm is no fun to sit out and should not be taken lightly, especially for anyone near a flood-prone area. A Cat 3 is considered a major hurricane and should absolutely be avoided, most especially by those on or near the coast, if at all possible. Follow the National Hurricane Center, and the WeatherUnderground site and their Twitter page for the latest developments. See also Jrooth’s diary here.