With three retirements of pragmatic (no, they are not moderate) Republican members of the House in the last week leaving three vulnerable open seats ripe for a Democratic pickup, it’s beginning to look a lot like 2008 again—except worse for Republicans. We’re currently up to 17 empty seats for Republicans, a number they did not reach until December of 2007 in the 2008 cycle, the last big Democratic wave year.
When you’re trying to hold on to power in the House, you want as few open seats as possible: Despite Congress’s deep unpopularity, incumbents simply have a better chance to win than newcomers. There’s just no way to spin this. But, oh, some will try:
“It’s not about the current climate,” NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers said Friday in a brief interview. “We are going to see more retirements because right now we are so below the historic average of retirements,” he said, noting that Reichert and Dent brought the total to seven, far less than the typical two dozen who depart each cycle.
Hoo boy. Well, yes, two dozen is typical for the total number of House Republicans who retire each cycle. But that counts all retirements, including those who leave in order to run for a different office. Stivers here is comparing these apples to the oranges of the eight (not seven) Republicans who have outright called it quits so far this year without any other political ambitions. The apples he should be comparing to number 17 in total, which includes members of the House running for senator or governor. And yes, as we can see above, 17 open seats this early in the cycle is most definitely not typical.
But what about the Democrats?
Democratic retirements are in the middle of the pack for this time of the cycle. We’re not looking at a record low or anything, but we’re below the pace of 2010 and 2012.
Now here’s the same type of graph for Republicans:
One of these is not like the other. There is usually a stampede for the exits at some point, but this year it’s started several months earlier than usual. That doesn’t necessarily mean the total number of vacated seats will be a record—but it won’t be small for sure. You’ll notice that a large number of retirements itself is no sign of certain doom: 2014, after all, was quite the good year for Republicans. Nevertheless, all other things being equal, it’s easier to pick off open seats than those with an entrenched incumbent, and with a deeply unpopular Trump weighing down Republicans at the top of the ticket, all of this open turf won’t be fun for the GOP to defend.
P.S. You can stay up-to-date on all retirements by bookmarking the Daily Kos Elections House open seat tracker!
