Top story in the tropics tonight are Maria, Jose, and Lee. Maria is headed to the Leeward Islands this week. Jose is headed northward, perhaps grazing southeast New England, and Lee, thankfully, may fall apart.
MARIA
Maria became a hurricane as of 5pm AST today.
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 57.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. The Hurricane Watch has been
discontinued for these islands.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued tonight or on
Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.8
North, longitude 57.5 West. Maria is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward
Islands Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern
Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria could
be near major hurricane intensity when it moves across the Leeward
Islands Monday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 982 mb
(29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Here we go again. Some of the same islands devastated by Irma earlier this month are now in the path of Maria, and places Irma largely spared, like St. Croix and Puerto Rico, are directly in Maria’s crosshairs.
This morning Maria didn’t look that great but it’s worked the dry air within it. Unfortunately this probably means it may intensify rather rapidly as it moves through the Leewards tomorrow, and it may be an intense hurricane on approach to Puerto Rico.
It’s going to be a long week with this one. After Thursday, I’m really not sure where Maria will be going. It largely depends on what Jose does this week.
JOSE
Jose is the storm that will not go away and I’m not even sure we’ll be rid of Jose by the end of this week.
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware,
to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from
East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including
Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook
* Delaware Bay South
* East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina
northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 71.8 West. Jose is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is
forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next
couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several
days in these areas. For more information, please consult products
from your local weather office.
RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and
southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and
from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause
isolated flooding and flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Jose will likely move northward toward Cape Cod but likely will miss the Cape and the Islands by about a hundred miles later this week. But because the wind field is large and expected to expand, tropical storm watches are up for a large part of the US East Coast.
The problem here is Jose may get stuck a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod. Modeling indicates Maria and Jose will do some kind of tango, and Maria’s future track is largely dependent on if Jose gets stuck.
But in the immediate future, Maria is likely to deal a devastating blow to the USVI and Puerto Rico on Tuesday.
Sunday, Sep 17, 2017 · 11:49:30 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 57.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES