Donald Trump is just six senate votes away from an impeachment, and Irish bookie Paddy Power is now offering even odds that he will be gone before the end of his first presidency. While most Daily Kos readers will probably party like it’s 1999 if the Donald gets drumpfed, it’s important to realize that politics is a messy business, and to be careful what you wish for.
Let’s look at the potential winners and losers of a Trump impeachment, before we start burning our MAGA hats in celebration.
1. Winner: Mike Pence
Any successful impeachment before the 2020election means we will get to see what a President Mike Pence looks like. The socially conservative, economically libertarian Veep would be like a blast from the Reaganite past, only with a lot less personal magnetism and charm.
Pence would seem to be much more aligned with traditional GOP values than Trump, and if both houses of Congress remain Republican through the mid-terms and the Donald makes way for Pence, then it will be interesting to see what he can get passed.
2. Loser: LGBT and women’s reproductive rights
Like many evangelical Christians, Pence has rather conservative views on social matters, and is likely to step up the attacks on LGBT and women’s rights that Trump has made in the first months of his presidency. With the Donald, you get the feeling that he is mostly playing to his base, but Pence has a voting record as governor and Congressman which suggests he truly believes it.
For example, he has been trying to reduce funding for Planned Parenthood for a decade, and opposes sex education in schools, supporting abstinence education in its place. Since he is a vocal opponent of same-sex marriage and civil unions, supporters of minority rights should feel very afraid of a Pence presidency.
3. Winner: The Koch Brothers
The shadowy Koch Brothers began to back Trump’s GOP Nomination as soon as it became clear he was the popular favorite. Indeed, there probably hasn’t been a Presidential candidate so aligned with their anti-global warming mantra since Reagan. However, it’s always been clear that the neo-liberal Kochs never agreed with Trump’s protectionist stance, and now they have the Republicans in office to do their bidding, they would surely love a Pence presidency for the rest of this term.
Mikey boy certainly sees eye-to-eye with Charles and David on most issues and would likely be the perfect candidate to push their agenda. Like the ending of every Scooby-Doo episode, a Trump impeachment and Pence Presidency will see the evil puppet masters finally being unmasked, but this time round, the Koch Brothers will probably get away with it, pesky kids be damned.
4. Loser: The gambling industry
As well as being anti-women’s rights, Pence is also known to be against all kinds of pleasures and vices. Although he probably won’t try to bring back prohibition in his first term, it is known from his time as governor of Indiana that he is vehemently anti-gambling. With casino mogul Trump out of the way, Pence is likely to crack down on the online gambling industry, which has only recently started to get back on its feet after 2011’s Black Friday ruling.
The two big Daily Fantasy Sports operators (Fan Duel and Draft Kings) could be the biggest losers of a Pence presidency, as they have been operating in a grey area since their inception. Expect to see alot of Americans switching to bitcoin-funded anonymous online casinos and bookies in offshore locations, away from Pence’s prying eyes.
5. Winner: Immigrants, legal and illegal…. but not refugees
Trump made a wall on the Mexican border a cornerstone of his Presidential bid, with the Mexicans expected to pay for it too. Well, 7 months in, and there hasn’t been so much as a brick laid yet, and it’s hard to see a Trump impeachment leading to any toughening of border policy.
Although he flip-flops during interviews on the issue, Pence’s voting record, as well as his support from the pro-immigration Kochs, suggests he will be lenient on undocumented immigrants and sanctuary cities, as well as visas for skilled workers. However, Pence’s more open attitude towards immigration doesn’t seem to extend to refugees, as he attempted unsuccessfully to prevent refugees from Syria being resettled in Indiana while he was governor of the state.
6. Loser: Vladimir Putin (and the Alt-Right)
Although a smoking gun has not been found(yet), the Russians most likely had a hand in Trump’s win, and it seems that Donald and Vlad have a great personal relationship. But the Russia fan club was never a big part of the Trump administration, and with Mike Flynn and Stephen Bannon now gone and Jared Kushner taking more of a central role, Putin has very little influence left in the White House.
If Trump is booted out, the administration could soon be the most anti-Russian since the Cold War. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to war. The Alt-Right will also likely feel the heat of a Trump impeachment. After Charlottesville, there’s not a whole lot of support for them, even within Republican circles. In fact, it was only Trump himself that spoke in support as they were booted off every web host and domain registrar in the world. If Trump goes, we can likely stick a fork in the Alt-Right.
Trump’s odds of making it to the 2020 elections are shortening all the time, and he won’t be able to make too many more mistakes before the rest of his base turn on him and trigger the impeachment process. With Mike Pence poised to take over if he stumbles, we can expect to see a different kind of President with different priorities. For sure, we will get a lot less Tweeting.
But with the potential of a united Congress and White House standing behind the sinister agenda of the Koch brothers, and hawks calling for a confrontation with Russia, anyone who thinks a Pence presidency will be plain sailing should wake up and smell the covfefe.