Citigroup, working with the Oxford Martin School—a virtual college at Oxford University devoted to furturist topics--has done some of the pre-eminent work on the implications of accelerating technological change for labor, in three book-size studies. The last is here:
www.privatebank.citibank.com/…
Oxford Martin came up with the well-quoted 47% estimate of currently automatable jobs, and the quite scary concept of “premature deindustrialization” in developing nations resulting from automated solutions.
Now, they have moved on to a new step, addressing income and wealth inequality in the industrialized world. It is the first in an ongoing series on the topic.
ir.citi.com/…
A brief summary quote from the introduction:
Why Inequality Matters
Economic inequalities have soared: Income and wealth inequality have risensignificantly across most advanced economies since the 1980s. Top income andwealth shares have driven much of the increase in inequalities. There is no sign of a reversal.
Inequalities are everywhere: Inequalities have been rising between regions,between generations, between industries, and between firms.
Inequality is not exogenous: While technological change is contributing to inequality, inequality was falling until the 1980s when tax rates began to become less progressive, labor unions were weakened and the financial sector was deregulated. Differences in inequality levels across countries are large.
Inequality has contributed to declining social trust, the erosion of social cohesion, and degradation of political processes: Civic engagement and political participation have declined as economic inequalities have risen.Inequality is also linked to rising support of populism.
Inequality may undermine growth: More unequal countries tend to grow ‘less fast’ than more equal ones. Global growth has declined in recent decades, while inequalities have risen.
Yes, I know, banks are the bad guys, and yes, I used to work for this one. Nevertheless, the work they are doing with Oxford Martin on labor issues related to technological change and the political and policy causes and implications of income and wealth inequality is of high academic quality and extremely relevant in the fight to take back the US from its enemies on the right. You can hate Citi as a bank, but this joint work is a gift for the political battle. It’s more difficult to deny than non-academic, work in the popular press perceived to be coming from the left. I know some of these people, and they are passionate and very, very bright.