Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) finally decided she would be principled on Monday afternoon, ending the will-she-or-won't-she speculation about the latest really awful Obamacare repeal attempt from her Republican colleagues. That should be the death blow to the bill, with Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Ted Cruz (R-TX) also saying they will vote no. But no one trusts Paul to do anything he says he will, and Cruz is just holding out for a bribe or two, so this isn't over yet. In fact, leadership seems to be thinking, forcing a vote on this terrible bill might make it pass.
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Tex.) did not rule out the possibility of holding a vote on the proposal despite clear signs that it did not have sufficient support to pass. Many Republicans feel pressure from voters to keep pushing to repeal the ACA before moving on to other issues.
“There are a lot of people who want to vote yes and be recorded as voting yes,” Cornyn said, adding that the Republican conference would decide the matter Tuesday, when lawmakers will meet for the first time since leaving for recess last week. “I think there is some advantage to showing you’re trying and doing the best you can.”
There's also got be more than a few who would much rather not to have to take this vote at all, particularly after the Congressional Budget Office score noting that it couldn't even predict how many people would lose coverage, particularly since the bill seems to be rather a moving target—would senators even really know what it was they were voting on?
This is what they'll be evaluating today at their weekly conference meeting—who they can bribe, who they can threaten and who are lost causes and if holding a vote could force 50 of them to destroy healthcare for millions. (By the way, it's been nearly a week since anyone checked in with House Speaker Paul Ryan on the prospects for the House to rubber stamp whatever the Senate sends them, something senators might want to think about today.)
Clearly, though, leadership is thinking that they can force this by forcing the vote and that they can browbeat senators into keeping the promise of repealing Obamacare—and none of their other promises about protecting people with pre-existing conditions or making sure everyone is covered or that it would be affordable. We'll see today how many of the rank and file are willing to jump off that cliff.
This round of Trumpcare clearly isn’t going to be really dead until October 1st. ANYTHING can happen this week. Call your senators at (202) 224-3121 and urge them to vote “NO." (After you call, please tell us how it went.)