Perhaps predictably, when election junkies turn the discussion to 2018, virtually all of the discussion centers on the United States Congress. And, admittedly, that’s understandable. For one thing, the Democratic prospects (in the House, at least) have greatly improved over the course of the year. For another, any surge in Democratic membership in the Congress would be heartening to progressives eager to see some sort of a bulwark against the Trump presidency.
More quietly, however, there is a huge set of elections next year that could have long-lasting implications for the Democrats as they seek to claw their way out of the minority across the United States. And those are the roughly three dozen gubernatorial elections which will grace the ballot next November.
If you read the piece on Sunday where we explored November’s off-year elections, you know that the Democrats have a very good chance of reducing that deficit, given that New Jersey Democrat Phil Murphy is an overwhelming favorite to flip that statehouse for the blue team. However, painfully, that would only mildly dent the enormous statehouse deficit that the Democrats currently face. Indeed, a Murphy win would only get the Democrats to 16 governors out of 50 (one governor, Bill Walker of Alaska, is an Independent).
However, there are some real opportunities for the Democrats in 2018. In fact, the Democratic gubernatorial landscape in 2018 looks a lot like the Republican Senate landscape—few vulnerable seats and a boatload of targets on favorable turf.
Consider: there are eight Republican-held gubernatorial seats up next year in states which were won last year by Hillary Clinton. Some of those will feature potentially vulnerable incumbents (Bruce Rauner in Illinois), and others will feature open-seat races in amenable territory (New Mexico). What’s more—there are five gubernatorial seats up in GOP-held states where Donald Trump won by margins ranging from 0-5 points. Some of these will almost certainly be in play, given the states in question (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin).
That adds up to a total of thirteen Republican-held statehouses which will be in play for the Democrats. Conversely, there is exactly one state which Trump carried which will feature a Democratic governor on the ballot: Pennsylvania. And there is only one state carried by Hillary Clinton by 0-5 points on the docket held by the Democrats: Minnesota.
Besides the obvious implications for policy in these states (governors can serve as a check on out-of-control state legislature, and lord knows there are few of those), there is also a critical component of these gubernatorial elections: redistricting. With the exception of Vermont and New Hampshire (where 2-year terms are the norm), governors elected in 2018 will serve until after the redistricting cycle has closed. Democratic gubernatorial gains next November will quite literally impact legislative and federal balances of power for the decade to follow.
That alone makes it worth watching. So, as we focus on the balance of power in the House, and the key races for the Senate, do not take your eyes off of those statehouses. On paper, it should be a very good cycle for the Democrats, and those victories could go a long way toward restoring legislative parity for the Democratic Party.