Please see my diary from yesterday for a more thorough discussion of the general setup for Hurricane Irma. This is a quick update discussing how the situation evolved overnight.
Irma did not go as far south as it appeared she would as of yesterday. Her WSW motion is still continuing but it looks like she won’t get south of about 16.7 degrees N latitude. This improves the chances that the leeward islands will have the storm pass to their north. It’s still likely that the northernmost islands will see hurricane force winds, and the whole warning area as well as the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are likely to see strong tropical storm force winds. But there’s hope they will dodge the worst effects.
In the longer run, the news is worse. The southward trend in the models continued overnight and both Hispaniola and Cuba are now in play for possible impact. I won’t dignify last night’s “The Day After Tomorrow: Florida Edition” run of the GFS… if you happened to see that, please don’t panic. That much intensity for that amount of time over land is exceedingly unlikely.
But the prospects of a Cuba and Florida impact are increasing, and even the eastern Gulf now appears to be in play, although the higher likelihood is still Florida to the Carolinas. An out-to-sea scenario is getting less likely but a few of the Euro ensemble members still take it out without and US impact.
Here are the latest ECMWF ensembles:
and here are the latest GFS ensembles:
The trend south and west continues.
Monday, Sep 4, 2017 · 3:06:36 PM +00:00 · jrooth
11 am advisory is out. New watches and warnings:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS------------------—
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Saint Maarten.
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.Martin and Saint Barthelemy.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.
New forecast graphic, a tiny bit further south:
Monday, Sep 4, 2017 · 6:23:19 PM +00:00 · jrooth
Mid-day GFS ensembles:
More tightly clustered near Florida, unfortunately.
The 12Z ECMWF operational is coming out but not complete yet. Not looking too good for us either, but better for Cuba anyway.