The intensity of Hurricane Irma can be expected to vary over the next two days, but at the moment that variation is all in the direction of increasing intensity. At 7 PM EST, the National Hurricane Center reports Irma was located about 90 miles east of the island of Barbuda. It’s sustained winds have increased to 185mph and the central pressure is down to 916mb. Hurricane force winds extend out for 60 miles. Put it all together, and this is among the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Irma is moving westward at 15 mph, so the 1,600 people on Barbuda can expect to face the full wrath of this monster around midnight AST. Hang on tight, folks. The 80,000 people on nearby Antigua are also among the first who will get an all too close encounter with Irma.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
- Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
- Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
- Dominican Republic
The 185mph sustained winds match those of Hurricane Wilma (2005) which fortunately weakened considerably before making a trek across Florida and Gilbert (1988) that slammed into Mexico. The 916mb pressure, down from 931mb on Tuesday morning, puts Irma in company with storms like Ivan (910mb). Irma’s extremely well-formed eye wall and tightly-ordered form suggests that the storm is likely to remain extremely dangerous as it moves across the Caribbean.
Both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands remain solidly in the path of the storm and will face hurricane-force winds, though it seems the strongest winds will affect only the west and east portion of Puerto Rico based on more recent models.
However, this shouldn’t be taken as a comfort. Since the most highly populated areas of Puerto Rico will be in those areas most affected by the eye passing slightly north and slightly east of the island. The purple areas here represent those areas expected to experience hurricane force winds.
Overall Irma remains a dangerous Category 5 storm what it not expected to weaken below a Category 4. Predictions for landful in the US mainland range from from south Florida through
Taylor Trogdon is a Senior Scientist at the National Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, Jose continues to strengthen as it moves west. The storm is travelling down the path of Irma as if the earlier storm dug a path. The current prediction shows Jose moving directly into the area recently plowed by Irma.
Jose wind predictions
Day Time Speed
06 0600 50 MPH
06 1800 65 MPH
07 0600 75 MPH
07 1800 85 MPH
08 1800 110 MPH
09 1800 105 MPH
10 1800 100 MPH
Unfortunately, those slightly lower speeds coming up for Saturday and Sunday don’t represent Jose falling apart. They’re caused by it moving into the water churned by Irma. It’s expected to recover velocity over the following days.
Expect Irma updates with greater frequency through the week.