This is a brief update, and I apologize for not being able to write as in depth and update as often during this. That said, I think we’re in good hands with everyone on the site who has written diaries.
Irma continues to deepen today. At the time I began writing this (just after 3pm EDT), the storm’s central pressure dropped to 917 millibars. This is not a weakening hurricane by any measure, despite directly crossing several mountainous islands. Land interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba may take some toll on the hurricane, and hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles that last roughly 36-48 hours. Irma has not had one of these since it’s reached its peak, and they’re tough to forecast.
Let’s briefly go island group by island group.
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
Antigua appears to have come through the hurricane okay, it was not in the most extreme winds. Barbuda on the other hand suffered a direct strike. NOAA’s instruments failed as the winds on Barbuda gusted past 155mph.
Early reports indicate the island seems to have come through the hurricane a bit better than one would expect, but there’s not a lot of contact. This information now confirmed false. Barbuda is wrecked.
ANGUILLA
Widespread destruction reported on Anguilla. NOAA’s tide gauges failed.
ST. BARTHS
Considerable damage reported on St. Barths.
ST. MARTIN/MARTEEN
The joint French/Dutch island took a devastating hit. Princess Juliana Airport is completely destroyed, from both wind and storm surge damage. The airport is infamous amongst plane watchers, as there is a famous clothing-optional beach directly at the end of the runway.
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
Tortola and Virgin Gorda took direct strikes from the eye. Some early photos have come out on social media showing trees stripped completely of leaves and bark. Buildings appear to still be standing and somewhat intact, a testament to the strong building codes in the islands. I haven’t seen any reports from Anegada yet.
US VIRGIN ISLANDS
Irma is directly pummeling these islands right now and it does not look good.
PUERTO RICO
Irma’s intense eyewall looks to directly cross a portion of the island, and the rains will be devastating. Puerto Rico is in crisis, and Washington’s indifference has been palpable. Over 3.6 million people live in Puerto Rico, with an even wider diaspora living in Florida and New York State.
I really worry about San Juan, currently about to experience the worst of Irma (at the time of this writing.)
BEYOND THE CARIBBEAN
The Bahamas and the British colony at the Turks and Caicos are next. Some of the Bahamian islands in Irma’s direct projected path were wrecked by Hurricane Joaquin in 2014. Haiti and the Dominican Republic, right now, look to be spared the worst of the winds but not the rain.
Of considerable interest is when and where Irma will turn north. It is going to turn north, perhaps sharply. A trough will pick the storm up (and spare the Gulf Coast—remain wary if you’re west of Mobile, but you’re probably safe from this one) Most of today’s model ensemble runs for both major models (GFS and the Euro) have come to a consensus that rides the hurricane on or near the Florida peninsula, still as an intense hurricane. This will occur on Sunday, with winds arriving Saturday night. As a result mandatory evacuations have been ordered for the Florida Keys and parts of Broward County, FL. Miami-Dade is preparing to order evacuations for its Zones A and B and if you live in Miami-Dade, you absolutely should already know what zone you live in.
I’m not an official, and would tell people to follow the orders of officials. But I will say that while Andrew wasn’t really known for its storm surge, there in fact was one, of 17 feet at Burger King’s former headquarters on Biscayne Bay south of Miami. Irma may be considerably more intense than Andrew.
I’m not going to speculate now on whether Irma’s eye and eyewall will cross the Florida coast, or where, but “on or near” could mean a windy day to complete catastrophe. I don’t think guidance will know until tomorrow.
“On or Near” has implications further north, and states of emergency have been declared in Georgia and South Carolina. Some guidance indicates that Irma may come ashore near Savannah, GA, as an intense hurricane. It’s been over a century since an intense hurricane has hit Savannah, and the city is much more surge prone than others. This would be on Monday.
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, Sep 6, 2017 · 8:26:39 PM +00:00 · terrypinder
Cross your fingers for this to be right on Puerto Rico but the core of the most intense winds may just barely miss the island.
Also, there are two other storms out there. Katia, in the southern Gulf, expected to strike near Tampico, and Jose, behind Irma.
Wednesday, Sep 6, 2017 · 8:58:38 PM +00:00 · terrypinder
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.
The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the
progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.
Wednesday, Sep 6, 2017 · 9:08:42 PM +00:00 · terrypinder
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
...QUICKLY STRENGTHENING JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 45.8W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
Wednesday, Sep 6, 2017 · 9:11:56 PM +00:00 · terrypinder
Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017
...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Laguna Verde