Hurricane Irma is currently passing just north of Puerto Rico, with hurricane force winds passing along the edge of the island and a significant storm surge. However, Puerto Rico seems to have been spared the extreme wind that would come from a direct hit from Irma. The current path suggests that both Haiti and the Dominican Republic will also avoid a direct hit, though both will be subject to tropical storm force winds and a storm surge up to 5 feet.
The brown area in this image represents the area of hurricane force winds with the green areas showing tropical storm force winds. Most of Puerto Rico can also expect to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain as Irma moves past.
Irma — 9PM AST— north of San Juan, PR
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
A number of islands still stand between Irma and a possible landfall in Florida on Sunday, and while an impact near Miami still seems likely, it may be less likely than it was earlier.
Irma should pass near the Turks and Caicos Islands around noon on Thursday. These islands should avoid the highest winds, but they will be subject to an extreme storm surge of 15 to 20 feet along with winds up to hurricane level and heavy rain. Anyone on these islands should seek shelter on high ground. Severe flooding can be expected.
Next in the direct path of Irma are Great Inagua and Little Inagua at the south end of the Bahamas. These two islands are likely to encounter the full brunt of Irma, which is still carrying sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts to 220 mph. The total population of the islands is less than 1,000 most of the island lies below the level of the 20 foot storm surge that is heading its way. The situation for those on these islands is extremely serious.
Beyond Inagua, Irma is projected to thread the needle between Andros on the north and Cuba to the south. However, the storm could still wander in either direction before it reaches this point on Saturday afternoon. The earliest projects for Irma suggested it would hook to the north by this point. Later models, including the European model, suggested an encounter with Cuba. While the NHC model still calls for Irma to pass between the two islands, the Wednesday evening model has the storm beginning to turn earlier than it did in projections on Wednesday morning.
With the projected course of the storm now passing only a few miles inland along Florida’s Atlantic coast, there is a real possibility that the storm could remain offshore, either coming to land further north or curling back out to avoid landfall entirely. However, no one should count on this. There’s an equal chance the storm could move to the west, striking in the Keys and making a more centered trip up the Florida peninsula. Irma could move anywhere within the shaded “cone” — and even that’s not sacred. No one who lives in the south Florida area should take the chance. Irma should be expected to arrive around noon on Sunday, bringing with it high winds, significant rain, and a dangerous storm surge. Do not wait until you are certain you need to get out. Get out now.
Jose
While Hurricane Jose’s early path seemed to follow in Irma’s footsteps, it’s movement from this point should put it significantly north of the route followed by its big sister. The Leeward Islands, fresh off devastation from Irma, can expect additional rain and tropical storm force winds. The good news is, as far as Jose is concerned, that may be it. Predictions have the storm strengthening over the next four days, then diminishing — all in the nicely empty space north of the Bahamas, south of Bermuda, and safely away from the US coast. The island most likely to suffer from Jose — unlucky Barbuda, which took a direct shot from Irma.
Irma’s Wake
Over the last two days, Irma has crossed the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin islands while packing winds of 185 mph. Both wind, rain, and storm surge have contributed to what can only be described as devastation in the wake of the storm.
Barbuda
Reports from the ground indicate that practically every building on this island of about 1,600 people has been destroyed. UN resources are moving in, but indications are that a complete evacuation may be needed — something that would best be done before Jose buffets the area on Saturday.
Anguilla
Seems to have come off better than some other islands, though videos from the storm show fearsome levels of wind.
The tourist board for the Caribbean island of Anguilla says the major resorts on the island survived a hit from Hurricane Irma but many private homes have been damaged.
It also says that the airport did not sustain any major damage but that it remains closed along with two ports.
Saint-Martin
Just to the south of Anguilla, Saint-Martin appears to have taken the brunt of the storm.
"We know that the four most solid buildings on the island have been destroyed which means that more rustic structures have probably been completely or partially destroyed” …
The French government has confirmed there are electrical blackouts and widespread flooding on the islands of St Barthélemy and St Martin.