We’re just over 2 days from Irma’s likely strike on southeast Florida.
There are few changes from this afternoon’s forecast posted by DarkSyde, except that landfall sometime Saturday night into Sunday somewhere between Homestead and Marathon appears more and more likely as very little model guidance takes the core of the hurricane offshore to the east, and the hurricane will be intense, as there’s little in the future path to weaken the hurricane, except for Florida itself. I will also note that the Hurricane Center has nailed its track with Irma almost to the hour, since Tuesday.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017
...IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning east of Cabo Frances Viejo and the Tropical Storm
Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border
with Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1
North, longitude 71.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern
Bahamas this evening. The core of the hurricane will then move
between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day
or two.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 919 mb (27.14 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight.
Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the
southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by
tonight or early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late
Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday evening:
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...
additional 1 to 2 inches
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches
Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should
start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States
later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
For most of Irma’s history as a Category 5, the most intense and extreme winds were confined to a 10-mile band around the eye, surrounded by a 50 mile-wide band of Category 1-3 winds. Recon is currently finding some evidence that the intense band around the eye is expanding.
Irma will ride north during the day on Sunday, its eye partially onshore. It is likely that all of peninsula Florida will experience some level hurricane force winds.
Storm surge is as much a function of bathymetry as well as storm intensity. You’re not going to see a 30-foot Katrina-like surge in Miami because the offshore bathymetry does not support it (west coast Florida on the other hand….) But Biscayne Bay can still funnel water, Irma is coming in at the WORST angle for that, and storm surges of 5 to 10 feet are very possible. Much of South Dade and Miami are just barely above sea-level, and as a result the city ordered the mandatory evacuations of its zones A, B, and C (if we see it go to D and E, that’s essentially most of Dade County). Evacuations are ongoing up the coast into South Carolina.
In Georgia, Governor Deal ordered the evacuation of everyone east of I-95, this includes Brunswick and Savannah.
If you’re in an evacuation zone, the time to go is now. If you don’t feel comfortable about the structure you’re in, you also need to go. If you can’t get far north, shelters are open throughout the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area.
If you plan on staying (as I’ve learned a good deal of my extended family has chosen to do), interior rooms are best. Drag mattresses in there and build a mattress fort and get under it. I’ll assume you have supplies on hand to last 7 to 10 days---it may take that long for aid to arrive.
Good luck, Florida. I really have little confidence that this forecast will get less catastrophic when I get up tomorrow morning.
Updates as I can until 11pm EDT.
Friday, Sep 8, 2017 · 3:03:49 AM +00:00
·
terrypinder
11pm update. winds down to 165mph as it has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and the windfield has spread out.
Watches for South Florida are now warnings.
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward
around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the
Florida Keys.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet southward
around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the
Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Venice.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
north of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet and for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island.
The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Warning for the north coast of the Dominican Republic.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
* North of Bonita Beach to Venice
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet
* North of Bonita Beach to Anna Maria Island
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress
of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 72.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two with a decrease in
forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late
Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to
move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward
the southeastern Bahamas overnight. The core of the hurricane will
then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the
next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
Bonita Beach to Venice...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area in Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions are
occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are spreading across the southeastern Bahamas
and will move into the central Bahamas by early Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions
are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday,
and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys late
Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.