What a difference a day makes.
Hurricane Irma proceeded further west than anticipated by the consensus models yesterday morning. The mid-day run of the ECMWF led the parade of models shifting the track west. As a result, it looks like we in the SE Florida Metro Area are going to mostly dodge the bullet (although I hasten to say we will be seeing significant effects today through all day tomorrow including potential tornadoes, and any shift back east in track would bring stronger effects our way. But we will at this point almost certainly be spared the core of the storm.
But our good fortune is at the expense of the people on the north coast of Cuba, which has been pounded by category 4 conditions all night. As of the 8am advisory, Irma has been downgraded to category 3 remains a category 4 storm with 130 mph winds and is still churning along the Cuba coast. The storm is expected to begin making the turn north today. Later on, our good fortune is at the expense of those on the west coast of Florida. They are now facing the dire threat we faced a short day ago.
As Irma crosses the very warm waters of the Florida Straits it is likely to regain strength to a strong category 4 or possible category 5 status before making landfall in the lower Keys and later along the southwest or west coast of the Florida peninsula.
Here are the ensembles from the overnight run of the ECMWF:
And from this morning’s run of the GFS:
As you can see, the consensus has shifted to the Florida west coast.
The southwest and west coast of the Florida peninsula from Marco Island north through the big bend will see severe conditions as Irma passes through. Of particular concern are first Port Charlotte and then the Tampa Bay area, as a track close offshore could lead to catastrophic storm surge. Tampa Bay in particular is vulnerable to massive surge if the winds are from the south or southeast.
Best of luck to all in the path, and swift recovery to all those who have already experienced this monster.
Saturday, Sep 9, 2017 · 3:26:50 PM +00:00
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jrooth
11 am advisory graphic:
As of 11 am, Irma’s minimum central pressure has gone up to 941mb and maximum sustained winds are 125 mph. The eye should be emerging off the Cuba coast in the next couple of hours. After that we can expect so re-strengthening.