From almost the moment it formed, expectations have been that Hurricane Irma would hook right as it approached Florida, carrying it north and east, away from the scalding waters that have nursed it’s unmatched intensity. That hasn’t happened. Irma has stubbornly held course, moving west northwest with barely a wobble in a course that’s taken it from near the coast of Africa to grind the north shore of Cuba. Michael Weissenstein reports:
Early Saturday, the hurricane center said the storm was centered about 10 miles (15 kilometers) northwest of the town of Caibarien, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 kph). Soldiers and government workers earlier had gone through coastal towns enforcing the evacuation, taking people to shelters at government buildings and schools - and even caves.
Many of Irma's victims fled their islands on ferries and fishing boats for fear of Hurricane Jose, a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds that could punish some places all over again this weekend.
Some islands, though, received a last-minute reprieve as a hurricane warning for Barbuda and Anguilla was downgraded to a tropical storm. Both islands were devastated by Irma.
Forecasts on Friday still called for the storm to turn hard right as it crossed the home stretch to the US, but now that final directional change has been delayed again. Rather than strike near Miami, as forecasts indicated mid-week, or on the east side of Florida’s southern tip, it now appears that Irma will sail over the Florida Keys and actually strike the peninsula on the Gulf side, coming ashore near Sanibel Island then moving from the area around Cape Coral to Tampa. Wind speeds at landfall are still expected to exceed 150 mph.
The good news is that this will minimize damage to the heavily populated area on the East Coast from Miami through Palm Beach. The bad news is … everything else. Though much of the most extreme storm surge is projected to go into the area in and around Everglades National Park, significant surge will affect cities on the Gulf Coast as far up as Gasparilla Sound. And a Category 4 storm — at least — is going to slam Florida’s Gulf coast, which had been expected to come through this thing with minimal damage. That’s not going to happen now.
Those on the Gulf Coast who felt safe based on predictions of Irma hanging to the east, there is still time to get out of the area. And if you can get out, get out.
Storm Surge Predictions
- SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
- Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
- Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
- Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
- Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft
Rainfall Predictions
- The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
- The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
- The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Wind Predictions
- Key West / Marathon 150 mph
- Sanibel Island / Cape Coral — 150 mph
- Tampa — 120 mph