A federal court panel of 3 just struck down North Carolina's second congressional map of the decade. While the first was struck down over racial gerrymandering issues, this one was struck down over partisan gerrymandering. If you ask, North Carolina Republicans will insist those are very different things. The court declined to immediately appoint a Special Master (more on that later) at this time and instead ordered Republicans to redraw the map without partisan influence.
I see three ways new districts could go. For each of those three scenarios, I drew up a congressional map of North Carolina.
Prologue: Current Map
I just want to say a quick word about each of the current districts and why they are the way they are
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NC-01: The 1st needs to be an African American access district, but including Durham is obviously an attempt to put as many Democratic voters in the district as possible.
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NC-02: This district dilutes Raleigh suburbs with some Republican rural voters.
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NC-03: Honestly a sensible district, given what was done to the 1st.
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NC-04: Instead of doing the right thing and making a Raleigh based district in Wake County, the 4th takes in Chapel Hill as well to pack Democratic voters.
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NC-05: The 5th includes the Democratic cities of Winston-Salem and Boone, then puts them in with the most Republican part of the state.
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NC-06: The 6th takes pieces of Greensboro, as well as Democratic Chatham County, then reaches around for Republican rural areas to overwhelm them with.
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NC-07: While it make not be true now, it used to be not too long ago that the SE corner of the state was more Democratic downballot, so the 7th goes to only the reddest places in that area.
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NC-08: The 8th is a big long arm connecting Republican rural areas and suburban Cabarrus County, all to outvote somewhat Democratic Fayetteville.
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NC-09: As drawn, the intention was that the rural areas would be a draw and Union County/the white part of Charlotte would decide the election for Republican. Now that arm into Charlotte’s more Democratic, but the rural areas have moved right.
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NC-10: This part of the state is pretty Republican, so it was used to defuse Asheville’s liberal lean.
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NC-11: Back when rural Appalachian whites were still Democratic downballot, including Asheville in the district could tip it for a moderate Democrat like Heath Schuler, so the city was removed.
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NC-12: This is a Democratic vote sink taking in only the most Democratic parts of Charlotte
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NC-13: The majority of Greensboro (and High Point) is connected to super Republican areas to the west, though this particular district may not be holding up as well as Republicans hoped.
District |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
PVI |
D+17 |
R+7 |
R+12 |
D+17 |
R+10 |
R+9 |
R+9 |
R+8 |
R+8 |
R+12 |
R+14 |
D+18 |
R+6 |
Scenario 1: Republican Gentlemander
In this scenario, Republicans decide to submit a cleaner map that's less egregious in terms of districts that blatantly cut up communities of interest and are not compact, all in order to increase partisan gain. Instead they make a series of mostly reasonable looking and somewhat justifiable individual choices that create Republican leaning map overall, but one that noticeably decreases their advantage. This would be to cede some ground in order to avoid a totally fair map.
Districts:
- NC-01: The first pulls out of Durham. This is probably the most cautious I was with this map, mostly because courts seem especially sympathetic to arguments about packing minority voters. It's now 46% black.
- NC-02: Doesn't change too much, really. Gets a little more of the Raleigh suburbs.
- NC-03: The addition of Wilmington is the big change here. And at first it may make the district look weird. But I think Republicans believe they could plausibly argue that since the first took some inland population centers away from it, it made sense to turn the 3rd into a fully coastal district by putting in Wilmington.
- NC-04: The 4th current connects the easternmost and westernmost cities in the Research Triangle and is just indefensible. This 4th trades Chapel Hill for Durham, a larger and less white city. While this still packs Democrats, the district itself is more compact and cohesive, and is now majority minority.
- NC-05: The 5th used to be a pretty Republican district that drowned out Winston-Salem and Boone. Now it's a very Republican district that drowns out Boone.
- NC-06: The only interesting change here is adding in Chapel Hill.
- NC-07: It doesn't look too different, but the 7th changed a lot. It lost Wilmington and picked up Fayetteville. That isn't as lateral a move as it may seem, since the latter is significantly more Democratic than the former. But the rural areas in the 7th have become more hostile to Democrats downballot, so the district can afford to move a little to the left while not really endangering the Republican hold on it.
- NC-08: Much like the 7th, this district would have been dangerous for Republicans when it was first drawn, but increasing racial polarization among rural whites, as well as the right turn the Lumbee took, means that this district probably stays safely Republican.
- NC-09: A bit of Charlotte gets drowned out by a lot of exurbs. This is actually a pretty fair district if you accept the 12th as it's currently drawn
- NC-10: It loses Asheville.
- NC-11: The 11th used to combine Dem curious Appalachian Western NC with hippie liberal Asheville. In 2012 Republicans removed Asheville to take the district for themselves. This map remedies that blatant partisan maneuver, but keeps the district pretty Republican because of how strongly Republican the rural areas are now.
- NC-12: I didn't really touch it
- NC-13: After 12 districts of finding new configurations of Republican advantages, this is where the only big concession comes in. It's just not possible to split Winston-Salem and Greensboro into two Republican districts without it looking like an egregious, obvious gerrymander. Plus Tedd Budd is looking like he'll be in for a real fight anyway this year, so it's not the concession of a safe district.
District |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
PVI |
D+8 |
R+7 |
R+12 |
D+20 |
R+20 |
R+7 |
R+5 |
R+5 |
R+15 |
R+18 |
R+9 |
R+18 |
D+10 |
Make no mistake, this is still a gerrymander. It is likely to produce a 9-4 delegation in a swing state. But it would still help us. Most importantly, we'd get a safely Democratic district in the Triad. But it's also worth noting that this map would weaken Republicans in several districts. For the most part this is likely not going to matter. It's even possible they limited their loss to one next year instead of two or more. But it's also possible that a very bad year for Republicans could result in putting something new in play.
Scenario 2: Fair Map
How would North Carolina get a fair congressional map? Simple. The Republican legislature doesn’t send in a map or, more likely, sends in a plan that the court deems to be still drawn with too much partisan intent. The court would then appoint a what’s known a special master. A special master is a general name for someone who is tasked with implementing a court’s order. In this case, it would be an expert in redistricting, who would be given the criteria the court sets out and would create a new map from scratch. They’d also get paid handsomely for it, in the realm of $200/hr potentially.
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NC-01: In drawing a minority access district it’s important to balance out making the district safe for that minority group with not packing those voters into one district and diluting that community’s voting strength. This iteration of the 1st district is 45% black, while still being compact and leaving Durham and Granville Counties out.
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NC-02: The 2nd now covers a slightly more outer ring of suburbs around Raleigh. It becomes slightly more Republican relative to the current 2nd, but may still be competitive.
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NC-03: The 3rd pushes inland and takes in the area in between Fayetteville, Goldsboro, and Wilmington. since the 3rd is largely a rural district, this new territory fits in well from a community of interest standpoint.
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NC-04: This 4th is now the southern 2/3 or so of Wake County. It contains Raleigh and some suburbs, but loses Chapel Hill.
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NC-05: This 5th is considerably east compared to its current iteration, and harkens back more to the 5th of the 90s and early 2000s, and now has neither Winston-Salem nor Boone.
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NC-06: Chapel Hill and Durham belong together in any sane congressional map. They are right next to each other and very closely related. The 6th also takes in the rest of the Research Triangle not in any other district, and extends north to Virginia and west to the Triad, making a very compact district. It’s also safely Democratic, in contrast to the current Republican 6th.
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NC-07: By adding Fayetteville to the 7th it becomes a swing district, albeit one that Trump managed to win despite Obama carrying it in 2012, largely owing to the swing in the rural area, particularly Brunswick County. It's also the only Obama-Trump district in the state. Both won narrowly. While putting Wilmington and Fayettteville in the same district is something of an unprecedented move in North Carolina, I contend that it works well. They are both similarly sized military cities, and not putting them together would mean both are in a district with a large number of rural voters.
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NC-08: This district is just sort of the rural, mostly white, stuff between the 7th and Charlotte.
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NC-09: The 9th is a mostly suburban district that goes east and west of Charlotte, crossing over the north of the city. The more west you go past Charlotte in the district, the more rural it gets, however, and Cleveland County is only barely part of the Charlotte area.
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NC-10: The 10th moves north and is now just the northwest corner of the state. It’s pretty rural and white, barely touching down into the Charlotte metro
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NC-11: The 11th gets Asheville back. Really that’s all there is to say.
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NC-12: The 12th now compacts even further into the southernmost 730,000ish people in Mecklenburg County. It’s still safely Democratic
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NC-13: Winston-Salem is reunited with Greensboro and High Point. Not shockingly, this district is safely Democratic, and would be the party’s other immediate pickup under this map.
District |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
PVI |
D+7 |
R+8 |
R+15 |
D+9 |
R+22 |
D+12 |
R+2 |
R+12 |
R+9 |
R+20 |
R+9 |
D+13 |
D+9 |
This map gives Democrats two automatic pickups, NC-06 and NC-13, and puts a 3rd, NC-07, immediately into play. After that, pickings get slim. NC-02 and NC-09 are both in play, but would be tough nuts to crack. And NC-11 might be competitive, but it’s the farthest of reaches. You might be doing some quick math and notice that in a neutral environment like 2012, this map would produce a 7R-5D-1 swing set of races. The slight Republican lean isn’t too surprising, considering North Carolina is a somewhat (R+3) Republican leaning state, despite its swingy reputation.
Scenario 3: Democratic Gentlemander
- NC-01: This is probably the easternmost version of the seat you can make. It's down to 42% black, which is likely still enough to satisfy VRA standards
- NC-02: This district now includes Durham, Raleigh suburbs, and Rocky Mount. It's an African American opportunity district as well, being safely but not overwhelmingly Democratic, and 30% black. Holding will be done for.
- NC-03: This district loses a few smaller cities and now loops around the first.
- NC-04: This is almost the same as the 4th from the fair map. It’s still safely Democratic.
- NC-05: After losing loses both Winston-Salem and Boone, it becomes a lot bigger, more rural, and more Republican. Foxx and Budd both wind up here, but she should have the upper hand.
- NC-06: The 6th is now a swing district, having gained Chapel Hill and a higher black population among the rural areas. While the surprisingly large amount of the district that is rural has trended decently to the right since 2008, its urban core, around Chapel Hill, Burlington, and the Raleigh suburbs, has helped it to move ever so slightly to the left of the country as a whole. While a good Republican incumbent would have a decent shot at keeping this district, Walker is not that.
- NC-07: It’s a lot like the fair district, but with a bit changing at the border to give Democrats a few hundred more votes. Rouzer will be fighting for his life. This district would almost certainly support a McIntyre comeback, but Democrats could probably find someone more liberal.
- NC-08: The 8th is still just whatever's between Charlotte and the 7th. It squanders a decent amount of black voters to a solidly Republican district, but that’s because they’ve very spread out (and in the case of Robeson County, surrounded by remarkably swingy voters), and to create a Democratic leaning district basically sacrifices the 6th.
- NC-09: The 9th is fully suburban here, essentially consisting of a ring around Charlotte (though dipping into the the northeastern quarter of city a bit) It went for Trump by about 54-42, similar to the current NC-09. Unlike that snaking district, however, this one sticks much closer to the city, and thus has a lot of college educated suburbanites, a demographic that has strongly soured on Trump and the Republicans since the 2016 election.
- NC-10: The 10th is pretty similar Republican Gentlemander one.
- NC-11: This district's actually more similar to the Republican gentlemander than the fair map, with the major difference being that it includes the college town of Boone, which isn’t a crazy move as Boone isn’t too dissimilar from Asheville. This brings the 2016 presidential numbers to about 55-41 Trump, which is on the outer edge of what could be winnable for Democrats. The Appalachian whites of the districts still have some Democratic downballot sympathies, and there’s a decent chance turnout differentials give Democrats a big boost here.
- NC-12: This 12th intentionally hews to the more conservative parts of Charlotte, but there wasn’t too much that could be changed without making the 9th look pretty weird
- NC-13: I included all of Forsyth County to give some of the more liberal voters east of Greensboro to the 6th. It’s still Safe D.
District |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
PVI |
D+5 |
D+8 |
R+18 |
D+9 |
R+22 |
D+2 |
R+2 |
R+15 |
R+8 |
R+20 |
R+8 |
D+13 |
D+8 |
This map gives Democrats two automatic pickups (NC-02 and NC-13). Both districts are D+8 and around 30% black, so black representatives from either wouldn’t be surprising. Part of the reason this map is a subtle Democratic gerrymander is that it will only be in place for 2018 and 2020. The lack of strong incumbent and type of year 2016 is shaping up to be would make NC-06 a likely pickup as well. NC-07 probably leans Democratic in this environment. So Democrats are likely to have at least 7 seats. However, NC-09 and NC-11 both come into play as well, despite a somewhat foreboding PVI.
But interestingly enough, by statistical tests, this isn’t too Democratic leaning. The median district, NC-07, is only slightly to the left of the state (R+2 vs R+3), and the distribution of PVIs is somewhat symmetric. The real Democratic strength come from placing Republican districts within reach during a wave year, and scrambling the populations to negate incumbency advantages.
So what are your thoughts? Do you think these maps accomplish the goals they set? Do you hate the way I cut something up? Did I let some egregious typos slip through? Let me know.