The Washington Post just published this news, “Harvard study estimates thousands died in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria” which will not come as a shock to people who have actually been following the situation post-Maria in Puerto Rico.
Campaign Action
Some highlights:
Researchers in the United States and Puerto Rico, led by scientists at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, calculated the number of deaths by surveying nearly 3,300 randomly chosen households across the island and comparing the estimated post-hurricane death rate to the mortality rate for the year before. Their surveys indicated that the mortality rate was 14.3 deaths per 1,000 residents from Sept. 20 through Dec. 31, a 62 percent increase in the mortality rate compared to 2016, or 4,645 “excess deaths.” “Our results indicate that the official death count of 64 is a substantial underestimate of the true burden of mortality after Hurricane Maria,” the authors wrote.
Substantial underestimate — is quite an understatement.
The official toll included a variety of people from across Puerto Rico, such as those who suffered injuries, were swept away in floodwaters, or were unable to reach hospitals while facing severe medical conditions. No. 56 was a person from the city of Carolina who was bleeding from the mouth but could not reach a hospital in the days after the storm. Once arrived, the patient was diagnosed with pneumonia and died of kidney failure. No. 43, from Juncos, suffered from respiratory ailments and went to the hospital — only to be released because of the coming storm. That person later returned, dead.
The new study indicates there likely were thousands more, like Leon, who died in the weeks and months that followed but were not counted. Their deaths have long raised questions about the manner and integrity of the Puerto Rico government’s protocols for certifying hurricane-related deaths.
The Center for Investigative Journalism in Puerto Rico has gone to court in an effort to seek the island’s Department of Health and Demographic Registry’s mortality data for the months since November, the last month information was available. The Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics also announced in recent weeks it would perform an independent death count and use subpoena powers to retrieve the data. Spokesman Eric Perlloni Alayon said in a statement the government is still trying to verify the death toll and does not plan to release any new data.
Trump can’t cover this up with paper towels.
Tuesday, May 29, 2018 · 3:14:30 PM +00:00 · Denise Oliver Velez
Update: hattip comment from walterc
Here’s a link to the study in the New England Journal of Medicine: "Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria".
This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care.
...
We sampled 3299 households composed of 9522 persons.
They based their numbers on a survey of households, so deaths in single person households were not counted. When they corrected for this survivor bias, they estimated 5740 excess deaths due to the hurricane.
This is more than triple the official death toll of Hurricane Katrina. I suspect that the Katrina death toll was also higher than the official count, but by hundreds not thousands.