Welcome to the 2018 addition of OGGoldy’s Minnesota legislature preview. Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area; Part I will focus on those seats. Metro seats will be covered in Part II
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. District 1A has 4rd term incumbent Dan Fabian was first elected in 2010, and has entrenched himself fully. He has not been seriously challenged since 2010, and is facing token opposition in DFLer Stephen Moeller. Fabian looks a lock to return to St. Paul for another 2 years. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts, with Fabian having quite the rapport with aforementioned vehicle manufacturer. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A, the Kiel has still won convincingly every biennium since 2010. 1B includes East Grand Forks and Theif River Falls, the latter of which is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of Arctic Cat (Yes, both major American snowmobile/ATV manufacturer’s are in the same Senate district in the middle-of-nowhere-Minnesota). Dems recruited local union official and retired Air Force veteran Brent Lindstrom, who defeated the 2016 Dem nominee at the convention. Still, Kiel will win safely.
House A
Romney (R) 54-43
Trump (R) 65-28
McFadden (R) 49-47
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump (R) 61-31
Franken (D) 49-45
Safe R
District 2: District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. This seat has changed hands multiple times in the last few cycles, with Democrat Roger Erickson alternating winning in 08, and 12, with Republican David Hancock winning in 10 and 14. In 2016 Matt Grossell won easily over Jerry Loud, who defeated Erickson in the primary due to Loud being Native. After the primary, it came to light that Loud had a long history of being adomestic abuser, and lost handily to Grossell. This cycle, Dems settled on Michael Northbird, who seems to be running a good campaign and has outraised Grossell. Local Dems seem to be high on Northbird, so while this district has moved to the right of late, it’s in the Lean R category. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012 and has held it since. Green will be facing 2016 nomine: farmer Bryan Klabunde. Klabunde is not going to be more than a speed bump to Green for the second cycle in a row.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Trump (R) 60-33
Franken (D) 49-47
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Trump 64-29
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk. Bakk, along with long-term incumbent Mary Murphy and 2015 Special election winner Rock Ecklund (Both DFL) should win by their customary landslides against token opposition from Randy Goutermont and Keith MacDonald respectively.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Trump (R) 49-42
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Clinton (D) 50-42
Franken (D) 61-36
Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. The city of Moorhead more or less makes up the 4A half of the district, and is represented by Ben Lien, who has represented the area since 2012. Lien is facing off against 22-year-old college student Republican Jordan Idso for the second time, and should win by 25+ for the second time against him. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) looks to lock in his10th term in the House. He had a closer than expected 8-point race in 2016 facing off against a strong well-funded run by a County Commissioner during the Trump wipeout of outstate Dems. The GOP punted on this seat this cycle after coming up short, with a Some Dude last-day entrant Jason Peterson being the only Republican that wanted to run, and hasn’t run any sort of campaign at all, so expect Marquart to return to his normal 30-point victories this cycle. Marquart is at the top of the list when it comes to strongest DFLers to run to succeed Peterson when Peterson hangs it up.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Clinton (D) 48-41
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 57-35
Franken (D) 52-43
Safe D
District 5: The amalgam district, and is the most politically interesting in outstate Minnesota, with both seats hotly contested: 5B is the western influences of the Iron Range, and 5A is decisively not. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. Eichorn lost to Anzelc 57-43 last cycle. In 5A we have our first marquee race in numerical order. Freshman GOP Rep narrowly defeated DFL incumbent John Persell in one of the most highly contested race of that cycle, and Persell is going for a rematch. Persell has outraised Bliss, though both candidates are raising big cash. In the 2018 statewide primaries, Dems got 57% of the votes vs 43% for Republicans, and all signs point to Persell being a slight favorite, though this is an area where Trump really made headway with the electorate vs Generic R, so it’s trending from left to right. This is a seat to watch closely on election night. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of freshman Republican Rep Sandy Layman. Layman served in the Pawlenty cabinet and was a major recruit for Team Red in 2016. In return, The Democrats have nominated former long-time Itasca County Sherriff and current Grand Rapids School Board member Pat Medure, who has nearly universal name recognition in this area. Madure has outraised Layman by 50%, and the amount of money raised on this race far exceeds any other outstate race this year. Given the higher performance by Trump and the stronger nature of Layman vs Bliss makes this a Tilt R seat in my book. Republicans and Democrats both see this as ground zero for outstate House seats that.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Trump (R) 51-39
Franken (D) 52-43
Tilt D
House B
Obama (D) 49-48
Trump (R) 56-36
Franken (D) 53-43
Tilt R
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range: heavily DFL turf, though was seduced by Trump specifically in 2016. Julie Sandstede (DFL) is now running as a freshman incumbent after a really wild primary in 2016. She can expect a much less interesting cycle this year as she didn’t have a serious primary nor does she have a strong GOP opponent. Expect her to defeat Some Dude Guy Anderson in November. Over in 6B, we have the open seat being vacated by Jason Metsa, who unsuccessfully ran for the DFL nomination to MN8 this year. The GOP has nominated against 33-year-old Army Reservist Skeeter Tomczak (real name). I’ve never met Tomczak, but I know quite a few people that do know him, as he and I are the same age, graduating the same year. Tomczak has a reputation of being a bit of a Dudley Do-Right, which apparently has followed him from childhood to his military career, and didn’t do him well in his 2016 run against State Senator David Tomassoni (who isn’t up this year). The DFL has nominated Aurora mayor Dave Lislegard after a primary against a less mining-friendly DFLer in August. Lislegard is basically Jason Metsa if Metsa were 10 years older. Lislegard is also really well funded, out raising Tomczak 10:1.
House A
Obama (D) 63-34
Trump (R) 47-44
Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 62-36
Trump (R) 47-45
Franken (D) 61-34
Safe D
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range that Dems win by 35-40 in most every election. In 7A sophomore Jennifer Schultz will win in a landslide in this deep blue district. In 7B, freshman Liz Olson is also going to win in a comparable landslide for the seat. The GOP nominated Dada Krivagorsky and Caroline Burley, FWIW.
House A
Obama (D) 67-30
Clinton (D) 61-28
Franken (D) 69-28
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 70-28
Clinton (D) 58-32
Franken (D) 70-27
Safe D
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this district in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again for a an 12th term vs. Some Dude(tte)Brittney Johnson. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state in 2012. It won’t happen again this cycle though, as she is a lock to beat social worker Gail Kulp for the second time in as many cycles.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Trump (R) 63-31
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 65-28
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but I think those days are now behind us now. 1st term GOP Representative is a shoo-in against DFLer Alex Hering. In 9B, 3rd term incumbent Republican Ron Kresha will easily win against Stephen Browning.
House A
Romney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 70-23
McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 73-21
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R
District 10: This is a sleepy north central Minnesota seat, and is home to Joe Radinovich. The fact that he was able to win 10B as a 26 year old kid is pretty amazing in retrospect 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts. 2-term GOP Rep. Josh Heintzman is getting a free pass this year more or less, as he defeated a much stronger and better funded candidate in 2016. He is safe against Some Dude Dale Menk (DFL). The man who narrowly defeated Joe Radinovich in 2014, Dale Lueck, also has a sleepwalk of a race against another Some Dude: Phil Yetzer.
House A
Romney (R) 55-43
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 53-44
Trump (R) 62-31
Franken (D) 48.3-47.6
Safe R
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County to the north, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. In 11A, DFL incumbent Mike Sundin (DFL) will easily win a 4th term against Republican realtor Jeff Dotseth. In 11B, incumbent GOP Rep Jason Rarick has entrenched himself nicely in his once-swingy but reddening district after just 4 years. Dems did get a decent candidate in Hinckley City Councilman Tim Burkhardt, but it appears as though Rarick isn’t bother spending in the district, and Burkhardt hasn’t really set the world on fire, so Rarick is very likely to win.
House A
Obama (D) 62-36
Clinton (D) 47-45
Franken (D) 62-33
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 61-31
Franken (D) 50-45
Likely R
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. This is one area that the DFL prospects dim most as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. In 12A circa 2014, Representative Jay McNamar (DFL) lost his seat by 700 votes against now- GOP Representative Jeff Backer, with Becker winning the rematch 60-39, and the district hasn’t gotten bluer in the last few years. The Dem running against Backer is retired teacher Murray Smart. True to form in rural America, Smart was actually Backer’s high school social studies teacher way back when. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and incumbent Paul Anderson (R) has an opponent this year, unlike in 2016. Though local country musician Ben Schirmers isn’t a huge “get” in terms candidate quality.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Trump 59-33
Franken (D) 51-44
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 62-36
Trump 70-24
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican, but has gone to the right Democrats now and then, such as former State Representative Larry Hosch. This district is the only one in the state to have a SENATE election this year, a special election to fill the remaining 2 years on Lt. Governor Michelle Fischbach’s unexpired term after she ascended to the Lt. Governorship with the appointment of Tina Smith to the US Senate earlier this year. Both parties are actually taking this senate seat very seriously, as the chamber is currently TIED at 33 seats apiece, and if Dems can snag this pickup, it could give them unified control of government for the next 2 years. It’s an uphill climb for sure, but the DFL is pulling out all the stops due to the stakes. The DFL nominee is Joe Perske, the former mayor of heavily Republican Sartell, Minnesota, and is now a Stearns County Commissioner representing a very conservative portion of the country. Republicans are nominating 3rd term 13A representative Jeff Howe. Both parties have waived public subsidies and spending limits (which means BIG money is pouring into this race). I give the strong edge to Howe, but Perske should not be counted out all together, as he has been elected to a County Commission district that is approximately coterminous with the Senate seat, and won it in 2016 with Trump topping the ticket. Regardless of who wins the Senate seat 13A gets new representation in St. Paul. Republican Rocori school board member Lisa Demuth should be considered the favorite in the race, though the Dems aren’t punting on this seat, having recruited long-time political science professor Jim Read to be their standard bearer. Read has outraised Demuth, and while this race didn’t initially seem to be on anyone’s radar before the whole Fischbach ordeal and ensuing musical chairs, it is definitely a seat both parties feel they can win, and are throwing money at it pretty hard. Next door in 13B, Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll isn’t in any real danger, though did draw English Professor Heidi Everett as an opponent, but O’Driscoll is simply too strong to unseat.
Senate
Likely R
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 64-29
McFadden (R) 50-45
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Trump (R) 63-30
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area, and is home to St. Cloud State University. Mid-sized college towns have not been friendly this cycle, so that will definitely play into this cycle. Tama Theis (R-14A) is running for reelection against college professor Aric Putnam for the second cycle in a row. This race wasn’t on many radars in 2016, but Theis was nearly caught off guard and with no COH come election day and won more narrowly than expected, and was pulled across the finish line by Trump. This time Theis hasn’t been caught flat footed this time, though she has been significantly outraised by Putnam again. Dems are bullish on this, though Republicans aren’t going to cede the seat. District 14B has seen perhaps the wildest swings of any House district in the state. This is largely due to the fact that St. Cloud State University, with its 15,000 students, makes up a large portion of this district, and they tend to have inconsistent turnout in various elections. In the other half of the district, GOP incumbent Jim Knoblach is once again in for a tight race following his highly contested 2016 election. Knoblach faces 2016 SD14 candidate Jim Wolgamott, in another expensive race that is expected to be tight all the way through. Knoblach has the slight fundraising advantage in the race, and has a long history of getting elected in this area, so even though SCSU is in his district, he is probably a slight favorite for reelection.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Trump (R) 51-40
Fanken (D) 50-46
Tilt R
House B
Obama (D) 53-43
Trump (R) 46-43
Franken (D) 54-41
Tilt R
District 15: This is a fairly Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson has represented this seat since 1998, and won’t be ending her streak now against DFLer Emy Minzel. In the more conservative 15B, 3-term GOP incumbent Jim Newberger decided to end his political career early on his kamikaze run against Amy Klobuchar this year, leaving 15B vacant. Republican businessman Shane Mekeland is going to win in November against 2016 Dem nominee Karla Scapanski.
House A
Romney (R) 55-42
Trump (R) 66-26
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 63-35
Trump 71-22
McFadden (R) 57-38
Safe R
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. Both Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and shouldn’t have much difficulty. 6A is not as ancestrally DFL as the northern bank of the Minnesota. 16A is represented by 4th term Republican Chris Swedzinski, who is not in danger of losing in 2018 to DFL challenger Tom Wyatt-Yerka. Downstream from 16A on the Minnesota River lies the more Republican 16B. Paul Torkelson (R) lives here, and has represented the area since being first elected in 2008. He faces DFLer Mindy Kimmel, but the general election is a formality, as Torkelson will win handily.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 60-31
Franekn (D) 49-47
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 57-40
Trump (R) 64-27
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more ancestrally DFL leaning than the southern bank, even if not fully reflected in presidential PVI. Tim Miller (R) is the incumbent Representative having won 2 out of 3 against former Dem representative Andrew Falk. Oddly, 2018 will be a stronger challenge against him than Falk was: as former State Senate Lyle Koenen, who held both this House seat and the Senate seat from 2008 until getting swept out in the 2016 Trump fervor. Fundraising has been mostly equal, with candidates of equal strength, so it will be a close race. So the edge goes to the lean of the seat, which is much more Republican lately. In 17B Dave Baker (R) is running for reelection against Some Dude(tte) Anita Flow, a retired engineer. It’s amazing to think that a seat Franken and Dayton carried as recently as 2014 is now completely off the table for Dems, but here we are.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 63-30
Franken (D) 51-44
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Trump (R) 57-35
Franken (D) 50-46
Safe R
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. The two Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and will win easily. In 18A, long-term incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running again, and is a 100% lock for it, even though he has a name on the ballot against him this cycle, unlike 2016. In 18B, incumbent Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a no-name Dem Ashley Latzke in a formality of an election.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 65-27
McFadden (R) 51-43
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Trump (R) 67-25
McFadden (R) 52-42
Safe R
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. Incumbent 19A Representative Clark Johnson (D) is retiring. His 2014/2016 opponent Kim Spears is running again though. Johnson defeated Spears by 8 and 6 respectively. Democrats are running St. Peter mayor Jeff Brand against Spears. Both Spears and Brand are raising money well, and this open seat is considered a battleground. Given the fact that this is Walz’ home area and long history of electing Dems, I give the edge to Brand. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, freshman incumbent DFLer Jack Considine, a former Mankato city councilman, is running for a 3rd term. He will be facing Mankato businessman Joe Steck. Considine is safe
House A
Obama (D) 52-45
Trump (R) 47-43
Franken (D) 55-40
Lean D
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 48-41
Franken (D) 58-37
Safe D
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Sophomore GOP incumbent Bob Vogel is in his second reelection campaign in 2018. He is a long time bank executive, and presumably has plenty of money to throw around here. He has not needed to self fund in this 58-40 Romney district however. Vogel will run against and beat DFL Some Dude(tte) Barbara Droher Kline. In 20B, David Bly (DFL) is hanging it up, leaving the Northfield based seat open. Democrats have settled on church minister and immigration activist Todd Lippert, while Republicans have gone with trucker Josh Gare. Lippert is a prohibitive favorite, as Gare’s campaign never really got off the ground.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Trump (R) 62-30
McFadden (R) 54-42
Safe R
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Clinton (D) 47-46
Franken (D) 57-39
Safe D
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of MN-2 along the Mississippi river. Freshman GOP Rep Barb Haley is running for reelection for the first time, and she is facing off against Democratic businesswoman Lori Ann Clark. This has proven to be an expensive race as it is seen by both sides as highly competetive. Clark has outraised Haley rather soundly, though Haley still has a larger warchest leftover from 2016. I give the edge to Hayley based on incumbency, but this one will be close. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (R) is running again against Dem lawyer Jonathan Isenor, and it won’t be close.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Trump(R) 51-40
Franken (D) 51-44
Tilt R
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 61-31
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klouchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone Rep Joe Schomacker (R-22A) first won this seat 6 months getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. Now age 32, he drew another Some Dude challenger in Maxwell Kaufman this year, but that’s just a formality, as he will win 60-40. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 8th term against his own Some Dude DFL challenger Chniqua Johnson.
House A
Romney (R) 56-41
Trump(R) 66-27
McFadden (R) 51-51
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Trump (R) 63-30
McFadden (R) 48-45
Safe R
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. The Senate district has 14 year incumbent GOP Senator Julie Rosen against Barbara the winner of the DFL primary in August. Rosen will defeat her, handily. 23A will again reelect Bob Gunther (R) to another term in St. Paul, this time against Heather Klassen. Pervert Tony Cornish (R-23B) resigned a few months ago, and the special election to replace him was won by Republican Jeremy Munson. Munson isn’t expected to face much of a difficult race against Democratic professor Jim Grabowska, with his real test having been passed in the special election earlier this year.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Trump (R) 66-27
McFadden (R) 52-43
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Trump (R) 59-32
Franken (D) 50-45
Safe R
District 24: This is a locally swingy area around Owatana in southern Minnesota that is more Republican upballot. Unlike a lot of other farm areas, this one isn’t really moving right, as Owatana has long been a Republican bastion. It has actually started to move left downballot while the top of the ticket has stayed marginally Republican, making it quite unique in terms of political trends, though it was highly influenced by Trump, greatly improving Republican performance here last cycle. In the more Republican half, 24A, incumbent GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a 4th term, and will face army veteran Joe Heegard and is strongly favored to win again. In 24B we have State Rep Brian Daniels (R) running against Fairbault School Board member Yvette Marthaler. Daniels is the brother of 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell. This is a race that I personally didn’t expect to amount to much, as Daniels defeated a much stronger challenger in 2016. But Marthaler has outraised Daniels and there is some tepid hope for Democrats to win this seat.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 57-33
McFadden (R) 49-47
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Trump (R) 58-33
Franken (D) 50-45
Lean R
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. Republicans showed signs of life in 2014 for the first time in a decade and kept up some of that momentum in 2016, but we will see if that was a real comeback or not. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has. 25A GOP Representative Duane Quam has bizarrely not bothered campaigning while Dem nominee Jamie Mahlberg fundraises and campaigns circles around him. Mahlberg by all accounts is not a super strong candidate, but Quame could potentially fall victim to political laziness if the stars line up. It’s a GOP seat and Quame has held the seat for a while, and should be considered the favorite, but the fundraising numbers are alarming. In 25B, DFL incumbent Duane Sauke faces the voters for the first time as an incumbent after a close race for the open seat in 2016. Republicans have Kenneth Bush, an African American realtor. Bush’s campaign doesn’t appear to have amounted to much and the race is far sleepier than in 2016 when it was a marquee matchup. In 26A we have DFL incumbent Tina Liebling facing former Olmsted County Commissioner Paul F Wilson. It doesn’t seem like Wilson even has a campaign website, but he is a step up from Some Dude, being a former elected official. 2nd term GOP Representative Nels Pierson is running for reelection again, against Eyota City Councilman Tyrel Clark. Cark appears to be on a meteoric rise politically, outraising the incumbent by over 3:1, and while I struggle to say he is outright favored to win, this is on the cusp of being favored to flip in spite of it being an R-leaning district with a scandal free incumbent running for reelection.
House 25A
Romney (R) 52-45
Trump (R) 52-37
McFadden (R) 51-44
Likely R
House 25B
Obama (D) 53-44
Clinton (D) 50-40
Franken (D) 52-44
Likely D
House 26A
Obama (D) 57-40
Clinton (D) 53-36
Franken (D) 56-39
Likely D
House 26B
Romney (R) 53-44
Trump (R) 53-38
McFadden (R) 51-44
Tilt R
Districts 27. This area is swingy historically DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. In 27A, this seat has flipped back and forth for a few cycles now, with Republicans winning in ’10, ’14 and ‘16 and Democrats winning in ’06, ’08, and ’12. Incumbent Republican Peggy Bennett has proven to be a strong politician. Dems are backing local farmer Terry Gjersvik. Gjersvik has actually been running a pretty decent campaign based on everything I can see. Gjersvik has outraised Bennett, but both candidates appear to be taking it seriously. Given the greenness of Gjersvik and Bennett’s proven electoral prowess, I give her a decent advantage, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it flip. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented the area since 2004. Republicans have a name on the ballot, but that’s about it. Christine Green is effectively not a candidate beyond simply being on the ballot, and Poppe will dispatch her with ease.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Trump (R) 55-37
Franken (D) 54-41
Lean R
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Trump (R) 50-42
Franken (D) 56-39
Safe D
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is more swingy. Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades, and isn’t being challenged by anyone at all in 2018. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Davids is facing local DFL school board member, and former Al Franken staffer Thomas Trehus for the second time in as many cycles. Once again, this seat has become incredibly expensive again, following the 2016 cycle which saw over half a million dollars poured into it from all sides. Davids has the fundraising advantage, but both have raised lots of money. I give the advantage to Davids, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the upset here after a close race last time under more Republican-leaning circumstances.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Clinton (D) 46-44
Franken (D) 54-41
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Trump (R) 55-37
Franken (D) 50-42
Lean R