With the calendar flipping to 2018, our minds turn to flipping state races and winning back our government. In the largest swing state 2018 is a huge year ripe with chances. Can the Democrats flip the state senate? Win back the two southern most SoFla congressional seats? Take a “stretch” seat back from the GOP? Make inroads in the state house? Win the governor’s mansion for the first time in two decades? The answer to all could be yes, but it will require a lot of work. One of the hardest feats would be flipping the state house, but after Virginia, it isn’t entirely out of the question. This piece will look at the GOP-held Hillary seats from 2016, races where we were within margin last cycle, open seats, and generally competitive races.
In a chamber of 120 seats, we’re currently down 79-41 with a few special elections coming up. Needless to say, we’ve got some work to do on a map that’s tougher than the senate. However, in 2016, Hillary won 54 seats, 14 that are currently GOP-controlled. In ‘12 President Obama won 55. 2018 also brings all 4 statewide offices up for election, and all 4 incumbents are term-limited so the races will be open (CFO is a minor caveat since Atwater resigned earlier and Patronis will run for his first full-term.) The swing we’ve seen in 2017 in places like Georgia, Virginia, and Oklahoma, show us that while some races seem more daunting, there are even more competitive districts in this chamber than maybe once thought. We’ve got competitive seats, now we need to make sure we have the best candidates. Hopefully if you live in one of the competitive seats that currently doesn’t have a candidate you can play a role in finding the right person, or being that person.
First, the Hillary seats
Districts 21, 30, 44, 47, 63, 89, 103, 105, 110, 111, 115, 116, 119, and 120.
21 *New Candidate*: the race was 54-46 in 2016, but Hillary won here by 0.1%. The seat is swinging towards us since 2012 and is a great opportunity to flip. This seat is situated in Gilchrist and Dixie county- a mostly rural seat. We currently have Joe Additon and Jason Haeseler filed to run in this race.
30: The 2016 race here was 53-47 but Hillary won the seat by 8%. The seat moved almost 7 points our direction since the ‘12 race. This district has a base in Maitland, and is the Orlando-area, just North of Winter Park. Daniel Anderson is the only Democrat who has filed here so far.
44: This race was uncontested in 2016 but Hillary won here by 6%, a 13% swing from 2012. This is another Orlando-area seat with Lake Buena Vista and Windermere being in the district, roughly SW of Orlando. Both Dawn Antonis and Matthew Matin have filed to run for this seat. This was the seat where we had a special election candidate removed from the race, but who’s name still appeared on the ballot. This is a very winnable seat with the right candidate.
47: This race was 53-47 in 2016 and Hillary won here by almost 13%, a 12 point swing since 2012. Miller is vacating the seat to run against Rep. Murphy. So a Planned Parenthood activitst, Anna Eskamani, is running. The seat is in the Orlando-area suburbs, just east of Orlando. Eskamani has been off to a lightning pace, and is running a great race. She has kept Dem challengers out of the race, and appears to be the only person running to take the seat. This will be an open race.
63: This race was 51-49 in ‘16 and Hillary won by 10 points here, a 3 point swing from ‘12. This seat is based in Tampa and is a huge pickup opportunity for us. However, as of this writing, no candidate had filed with the state to run here. Since the seat is Tampa-based, we definitely have possible challengers here. The filing deadline is still 5 months away, so there is plenty of time to get the right candidate for this seat.
89 *New Candidate*: An uncontested seat in 2016 that Hillary won by 0.5%, a 5 point swing from Obama’s ‘12 margin. This seat is a long coastal seat with West Palm suburbs, Lantana, Gulf Stream, and Highland Beach in the district, as well as parts of Boca Raton. Ryan Rossi, James Bonfiglio, and Tina Polsky have filed to challenge for this district. This will be an open race.
103: 53-47 in the ‘16 race, but Hillary won here by 20 points, a 10 point swing from ‘12. This seat contains parts of Doral, Hialeah Gardens, and Miramar. This will be an open seat but we currently have no candidates who have filed to be in this race.
105: This race was 53-48 in ‘16, where Hillary won by 15 points, an 8 point swing from ‘12. This is a SoFla seat based in Miami-Dade. Javier Estevez has filed to run here, as the son of two Cuban immigrants, has written pieces on Medium about protecting DACA, and providing true representation for young Cubans. This will be an open seat.
110: 55-45 in ‘16 but Hillary won by more than 7 points, a 6 point swing from ‘12. This district contains Miami Lakes and Hialeah. We currently do not have anyone filed to run in this district.
115: 54-46 in the 2016 race but Hillary won here by nearly 11 points, a 10 point swing from 2012. The seat is based in South Miami with Palmetto Bay in the district. Both James Schulman and the ‘16 challenger Jeffrey Solomon have filed here. This will be an open seat in ‘18.
116: 62-38 was the 2016 margin in this race, but Hillary won here by 4.5% nearly a 15 point swing from 2012. This seat is also South Miami based in Doral. The seat will be open in ‘18 but we currently don’t have anyone filed to run here.
119: This was an uncontested seat in ‘16, a district that Hillary won by 13 points, a 12 point swing from ‘12 margins. Another South Florida seat that will be open in 2018, but we do not have anyone filed here, there are currently 5+ GOP candidates filed here to replace Nunez.
120: The margin in the 2016 race was 57-43 here, but Hillary won by 1.7%, not as strong as our 5% win in ‘12. This is another SoFla seat, the southern most house seat based in Monroe Co. with the Florida Keys. We have no candidates currently filed to be in this race.
Next: the 10 most competitive races in 2016 (some are also described above)
1. District 36: The race was 51-50 here and less than 500 votes. This seat is based in Port Richey/New Port Richey. We currently have a challenger here Dr. Linda Jack.
2. District 63: Outlined above, a 51-49 race where we currently have no challenger
3. District 105: Outlined above, 53-48 race, where Javier Estevez has filed.
4. District 103: Outlined above, a 53-47 race, where we currently have no challenger.
5. District 41: A 53-47 race that we lost by 4,165 votes in ‘16. We currently have Carmelo Garcia filed in this race, butt will need another candidate.
6. District 30: Outlined above, a 53-47 race that we lost by 5,002 votes in ‘16. Daniel Anderson has filed here.
7. District 47: Outlined above, a 53-47 race that we lost by 5,057 votes in ‘16. Anna Eskamani is running here. Last month she continued to pile up on endorsements from unions, state lawmakers, and progressive leaders. She also added to her fundraising haul to flip this seat.
8. District 21: Outlined above, a 54-46 race that we lost by 6,175 votes in ‘16. Joe Addition is running here as well as the newest candidate Jason Haeseler.
9. District 93: A seat we lost 54-56, or by 6,519 votes in ‘16. Clinton lost this district by 1% in 2016, Obama by 4 points in ‘12. It is swinging our way. Emma Collum and Stephanie Myers are running here. This seat will be an open race in 2018, and is based in South Florida in Ft. Lauderdale suburbs.
10. District 59: a 54-46 race that we lost by 6,572 votes in 2016. R+0.4 in ‘16 that Obama won by 0.2 in ‘12. A competitive district based in Tampa suburbs and East Tampa. We currently have no one filed to run in this seat.
Other Competitive Seats: (Lean/Likely R)
29, 42, 50, 60, 64, 67, 69, 72, 85
29*New Candidate*: Uncontested in '16 R+4 presidential numbers after being R+10 in '12. This seat is swinging our way and is based in Longwood/Lake Mary area. Attorney Patrick Brandt has filed here along with Darryl Block.
42: 55-45 in ‘16, R+8 in 2016 after being D+0.7 for Obama in 2012. This seat is parts of Polk and Osceola counties with Frostproof and St. Cloud in this district. Stellar candidate Barbara Cady is filed to run here and raising good money.
50: 57-43 in the ‘16 race R+3.7 at the presidential level after R+6.4 in ‘12, a three point swing to us. The seat is based in Brevard and Orange Counties, parts of the Orlando suburbs and Titusville in the seat. Educator and small business owner Pamela Dirschka is filed to run here, and received a shout out from Gwen Graham recently after meeting at FDP state conference this Fall.
60: 57-43 in 2016’s contest, R+1.3 in 2016 presidential race, a 6 point swing from R+7.5 in ‘12. This seat is in the Tampa-area suburbs in Hillsborough County. We have Debra Bellanti who just filed here.
64*New Candidate*: An uncontested seat in ‘16 that was R+9 at the presidential level, a 3 point swing to us after R+12 for Romney. Situated between Clearwater and Tampa, with Oldsmar and Safety Harbor in the district. Chris Smutko is already filed to run here along with Heather Stahl.
67: This was a 59-41 contest in 2016, but only R+4 presidential numbers, after D+6 for Obama in 2012. This seat is based in Clearwater, and we currently do not have a candidate.
69*New Candidate*: A 57-43 race in ‘16 that was R+3 presidentially, after being D+3.7 for Obama in 2012. This seat is based in the suburbs of St. Petersburg and takes in St. Pete Beach. Jennifer Webb has already filed to contest this seat again, and bringing in a lot of endorsements. Javier Centenzio has also filed for this seat.
72: This race was 58-42 in ‘16 and was R+4.7 at the presidential level. The seat is situated in the suburbs of Sarasota. Margaret Good is running to flip this seat in a special election. Check out her facebook to join a canvass if you are near the district, or a virtual phone bank, as Good as outraised her opponent and is undergoing extreme attack ads. She’s running a solid campaign to flip this seat.
85: 58-42 in 2016 and was R+10 against Clinton. This seat is located in Palm Beach. We currently have no one filed to run here.
The Others: Other open seats for 2018
1. District 28: 64-36 in 2016 race, R+3.6 in ‘16 R+ 7 in ‘12. An open seat based in Oviedo. Lee Mangold has filed here.
2. District 15: Jay Fant is leaving this Jacksonville-area seat to run for Attorney General. This was an uncontested race in 2016, that was R+8.7 for president after being R+12.6 in ‘12. Tracye Polson has filed here.
3. District 83: This race was 54-46 in 2016, although it was R+10 at the presidential level after being R+2 in 2012. The seat is based in Port St. Lucie. We currently do not have any challengers here.
4. District 71: This was an uncontested race in ‘16 that was R+ 11 at the presidential level after R+6 in 2012. This seat takes in some Sarasota suburbs as well as Bradenton Beach. Engineer Randy Cooper has filed in this race.
5. District 66*New Candidate*: This seat was 58-42 in 2016 and went R+14 at the presidential level. It is based in Clearwater and Alex Heeren has filed to run.
6. District 32: This race was uncontested in ‘16 but was R+15.4 at the presidential level. A Lake Co seat with Clermont and Leesburg in the district. We currently have no one filed here.
7. District 2: The 2016 race was 61-39, and at the presidential level was R+15.7. This is a panhandle seat where Raymond Guillory has filed.
8. District 79: The race was 51-38 in 2016 with a third party candidate taking the rest. R+17 at the presidential level, this seat is suburban Ft. Myers. Mark Lipton is filed to run here.
There are a few other open seats like District 1 where Vicki Garrett has filed, District 37 where Tyler Sanbucci and Tammy Garcia have filed, and District 51 where Michael Blake has filed. They’re tougher seats, but we have candidates in place to engage voters in those districts.
All in all, we’re recruiting great candidates so far, since we still have several months until the filing deadline, and session is winding down, which may prompt more movement. We may see more state reps leave their seats for other races, retire due to the environment, or for other reasons. We are lacking candidates in many of the Tampa-area seats as well as our South Florida Hillary seats. With 14 Hillary districts, 4 races that were lost by 6,000 votes or less in 2016, and another 9 seats where we performed well or that have R+10 or less from last year, we have plenty of targets. Many of the open seats will be very difficult, but we are recruiting and running in districts where we haven’t run in many years (similar to the seats Dems picked up in GA recently). We can’t be certain all the elements of a wave environment will crash on this chamber, but if we prepare like there will be a wave, we can ride it in 2018. With solid candidates, a strong top-of-the-ticket with Graham-Nelson, and contested congressional races, the House is a place where we can certainly make huge inroads this year. Before the 2017 races in Virginia, many experts predicted a superb showing would be to flip 6-8 seats. They flipped 15 (with 2 court cases pending). Florida’s House looks to be a bit out of reach, but so did the HoD in Virginia. We have the targets, we’re building the environment, and statewide races will invest Democrats all over the state. Buckle up for a wild ride in 2018.
Saturday, Jan 13, 2018 · 6:22:51 PM +00:00 · kwaters2008
Updated 1/13 to include new candidates in districts 21, 60, and 89. As session continues new candidates will emerge. Further, since DeSantis announced for Governor, and Shaw appears to be ready to announce for AG, while Tom Lee prepares to exit his senate seat for the CFO race after session, the merry-go-round won’t stop anytime soon. We’re on our way to contesting all of the most competitive seats and in places where we haven’t run in years.