Sources have informed the Associated Press that despite Pr*sident Donald Trump’s loud opposition to the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement, he will likely approve continued relief from economic sanctions that the agreement decreed in exchange for strict controls on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear development program. That’s good news if it turns out to be true, because Iran would almost certainly withdraw from the agreement if those suspended sanctions were reimposed. And that would bolster Iran’s hardliners. Matthew Lee and Josh Lederman report:
But Trump is likely to pair his decision to renew the concessions to Tehran with new, targeted sanctions on Iranian businesses and people, the six people briefed on the matter said. The restrictions could hit some firms and individuals whose sanctions were scrapped under the 2015 nuclear agreement, a decision that could test Tehran’s willingness to abide by its side of the bargain.
The individuals — two administration officials, two congressional aides and two outside experts who consult with the government — weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity. They cautioned that Trump could still reject the recommendation from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis and national security adviser H.R. McMaster and that no final decision had been made. They said heated discussions were going on within the administration and with key Republican lawmakers.
In addition to the sanctions relief, which is provided by means of waivers, Trump has to decide by Saturday whether he will recertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement. That pact was hammered out by Iran, the U.S., the other four permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and Germany, collectively known as the P5+1. The recertification is required every 90 days under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) that Congress passed when the agreement was approved.
The first two times the deadline came up this year, Trump grudgingly certified that Iran is complying with what is formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But in July he made clear to his staff that he wanted them to come up with a rationale for not recertifying compliance when the next deadline came up in October.
When that date arrived, he did not recertify. But it became clear he wanted to eat his cake and have it too when he didn’t withdraw from the agreement as he had strongly hinted he would. Since his campaign for the White House in 2016, he has called the agreement a “horrible” deal that he wants to dump or greatly redraft. Withdrawal would have severe diplomatic consequences, not just with Iran, but with U.S. allies, and Trump’s advisers were able to persuade him of this.
The decision not to recertify triggered a 60-day period of review by Congress under INARA. The Senate could have reimposed nuclear-related sanctions after the review, but the 60 days passed without any action on that front. Part of the reason? Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency charged with monitoring the agreement have repeatedly said Iran is complying with it.
The waivers of nuclear-related economic sanctions that must be renewed this week are, according to the Congressional Research Service:
- Jan. 10: Sections 212-213 of the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act
- Jan. 10: Sections 1244-1247 of the Iran Freedom and Counter Proliferation Act
- Jan. 11: Section 1245(d) of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2012, also known as the Kirk-Menendez Amendment
- Jan. 17: Section 4(c)(1)(A) of the Iran Sanctions Act (as amended)
Despite his opposition to the deal, Trump did not actively support an addition to the JCPOA as proposed by Republican Sens. Bob Corker and Tom Cotton.
But he, others in the administration and many members of Congress, including some Democrats, are keen on imposing sanctions not related to the nuclear deal. The targets: Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for rebels in Yemen, and support for activities in the Middle East that the U.S. has labeled terrorist. His advisers have also been working with senators to come up with a way to get rid of INARA’s recertification requirement, which is a bone in Trump’s throat. Without that 90-day mandate, he could continue to attack the agreement without having to take action to actually wreck it—the perfect solution for a man renowned for a lack of principles.
In a commentary at Lawfare, Elena Chachko writes:
According to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, more non-nuclear sanctions will follow:
The United States will continue to decisively counter the Iranian regime's malign activity, including additional sanctions targeting human rights abuses. We will not hesitate to call out the regime's economic mismanagement, and diversion of significant resources to fund threatening missile systems at the expense of its citizenry.
Similarly, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in interviews with CNN and the Associated Press on Friday that more non-nuclear sanctions “will be coming.” He also said that the administration is currently working with Congress on a “fix” that would allow the U.S. to continue implementing the JCPOA. Such a fix, according to the AP, would not add nuclear sanctions. Tillerson implied that Trump would renew the sanctions waivers if Congress promised prompt action on Iran.
For now, at least, it appears the nuclear agreement will hold despite Trump and the Senate war hawks’ bluster.