An interesting diary by Crashing Vor mentions the possibility of flipping sitting Republican senators, and a comment suggested that the most likely are Murkowski and Collins. I started to write a comment about this but it got so long that I decided it would be a diary of its own.
I find it unlikely that Collins would flip because it wouldn’t really do her any good. Democrats in the senate would be unlikely to give her any perks because she so recently showed herself to be easily swayed by meaningless promises on the health care bill. Giving her seats on any valued committees when she has so recently shown herself to have no scruples would alienate Democrats who actually earned their seats. I doubt that it would give Collins any help in her own district either, since she would lose most Republicans for switching and gain few Democrats because of her actual voting record.
With regard to Murkowski, I find it much more likely that she might change parties. Since she won an election with a write-in campaign against a tea party fanatic she has some actual track record of opposing that faction, and she could cast her decision as a matter of principle. She could probably keep a plurality of the Republicans who voted for her in previous elections, because they went against the party to elect her. Democrats in Alaska have shown great flexibility in tactical voting, so if she flips parties and actually supports a substantial portion of the Democratic agenda while occasionally straying from the fold to appease her Republican base she could be a useful vote for the things that matter most, like judgeships and elections for Speaker. She might be aggravating, but if she’s on our side more than 51% of the time she’d be valuable.
If Murkowski sees that the election is lost for the Republicans, she might change parties a bit before the election rather than afterward so she will look less like an opportunist. That said, I think she might pursue a different strategy. Flipping to independent prior to the election and casting some symbolic no votes on unimportant legislation wouldn’t commit her to caucusing with the Democrats after the election. It would be a canny move no matter who wins. She may portray herself as a principled conservative if one side wins and a person of conscience who broke with the party as the other side wins. After the Democrats win she could point to Angus King and say she is the second Independent to caucus loyally with the Democrats. Should the Republicans pull off the election she might claim a position as an Angus King of the right, a reliable vote despite the I after her name. If there’s any downside for her, I don’t see it.
This also helps her in a situation that any Republican with good political instincts has to be thinking about. Should the Republican party split into a business-oriented and relatively moderate party and a Trump-and-Evangelical cult, aRepublican who recently broke with the party and can claim it is for matters of principle would be ideally positioned to lead the more realist group. A senator who has a sense of both how the wind is blowing at the moment and of the seismic shifts in the political landscape might find a lot of reasons to jump from her party, but to jump only half way to ours.
And here’s the diary by Crashing Vor that started this line of thought: www.dailykos.com/...