House Speaker Paul Ryan doesn't have the votes to pass a continuing resolution to keep government open past Friday, at the moment, dealing with his usual warring factions. And the Senate leadership is worried that the House is going to screw them over and no one knows for sure what is up with Trump. It's just another Thursday with Republicans in charge.
President Donald Trump is personally leaning on GOP lawmakers to fall into line, especially hard-line conservatives who are opposed to virtually anything Ryan and his leadership team propose.
Across the Capitol, Senate Democrats are upset about the House potentially jamming them with a last-minute bill that would do nothing more than avert the worst-case scenario. They're still smarting over Trump seemingly backing away last week from a bipartisan deal to protect 700,000 Dreamers from deportation.
It's not just Senate Democrats who are unhappy about that reversal. Someone who rarely sticks his head above water over in the Senate, Mike Rounds (R-SD) has not only cosponsored the bipartisan immigration and Dream Act bill a group of senators are trying to get to the floor in exchange for keeping government open, he's now the critical "no" vote on a short-term spending bill. With Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) out and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) saying he'll vote against it, Mitch McConnell doesn't have a majority of Republicans.
Meanwhile, Trump is apparently endorsing a stand-alone Children's Health Insurance Program vote, tweeting "CHIP should be part of a long term solution, not a 30 Day, or short term, extension!" That's Ryan's primary hostage for bashing the Democrats for not voting for this bill. If Trump is really saying "do this as a standalone" that completely upends everything Ryan has been doing with this spending bill. Not that he had the Freedom Caucus on board anyway.
As of now, the House is planning vote sometime after 7 PM ET Thursday night, but this could extend into the weekend, easily.