No, I am not rescinding anything said in my recent rant on the outcome of the newly settled shutdown. But, having gotten that all off of my scrawny chest, I’m thinking once again about downline implications and possible fallout from the shutdown.
As it stands now, it all comes down as to whether or not Mitch McConnell is a man of his word. When it comes to dealing with the Democrats, as far as I’m concerned, Mitch McConnell’s word isn’t worth wiping your ass with. But, Mitch McConnell isn’t just dealing with the Democrats anymore. While McConnell himself couldn’t be publicly seen working with Schumer on the shutdown, Senators like Flake, Graham, and Collins put their credibility and reputations on the line to solve this. McConnell couldn’t care a tosser about Flake, he’s on his way out, but with a 51-49 (50-49 if McCain continues to be absent) margin in the Senate, I believe that Graham and Collins are going to force Yertl the Turtle is going to have to be an honest broker. Especially since Lindsey Graham brought a good faith agreement to the Tangerine Tantrum, only to be treated to a shithole shower.
Look, I’m no dewy eyed bumpkin gazing at all of the big buildings in New York. This is not going to be a clean DACA fix. There are going to be other moving parts of any DACA agreement, most likely including wall funding, and the lottery visa. Democrats like Luis Gutierrez have already said they’d give him the money for the damn wall in return for full protection for DACA recipients, and the visa lottery is no hill worth dying on, most people didn’t even know it existed until it became “a thing.” I personally believe that increased pressure from moderate Republicans, many of whom may well face tough reelection campaigns in 2020, will force McConnell to keep his word, and a sane bill will pass the Senate.
This will put the ball firmly in Paul Ryan’s playground, and a certain shitstorm. It was pointed out over the weekend on MSNBC that 2018 is a twin edged sword. While there are vulnerable red state Democrats in the Senate at risk, it is worth remembering that the GOP already controls the chamber. But there are also a large number of GOP House incumbents who have not already filed their paperwork for their House retirement benefits that are in vulnerable districts where DACA is an issue. If the Senate sends a moderate, obviously bipartisan bill over, especially if the margin is strong, vulnerable House incumbents are going to be screaming at Ryan to bring it to the floor to give them cover. If he refuses to bring it to the floor, they’re toast in November, and he loses his gavel in January. If he does, the Freedom Caucus starts a civil war to oust him from his Speakership, and El Rushbo, Fox, Breitbart and all the rest of the far right sound machine brand him a traitor to conservatism. If a bill gets to the House, it’s a true damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Ryan.
As always, the wild card is Trump. If a moderate bill comes out of the Senate, does he push Ryan to get this to the floor? If Trump does that, he likely gets a bill to sign, and a victory lap as the one who took care of the DREAMERs. But if he does that, he alienates the hard right wingers in his own base, infuriating them by handing out permanent residence status. As hard as he’s played to his base, and as inherently racist as he is, it’s hard to see him doing that. But, if he just sits on his hands, and lets the House torpedo the Senate bill in the House, then he paints the GOP as intransigent and unfair to the DREAMERs, energizes the Democratic base even more, And most likely loses the House in November, and possibly even the senate in the wave of discontent. Remember this. 87% of Americans want a fix for DACA, including a clear majority of Republican voters. If the Senate produces a logical bill, especially one that deals with security, and the GOP doesn’t pass it, If the GOP House scuttles a viable solution, large numbers of them may sit out November in protest.
So, this has potentially opened up a big enough can of worms to keep a fisherman happy for a month. While the Democrats clearly appear to have lost this round, at least as far as public perception is concerned, the mechanics of how the shutdown ended could place the GOP in greater peril heading into November than the Democrats. It all boils down to how close the moderate GOP Senators who put their reputations on the line here hold McConnell’s feet to the fire. Don’t touch that dial.