The deal today has obviously divided the left as is evidenced on twitter and Daily KOS. There's a few key points that people are missing though and it really changed my perspective once I thought about it. I'm not going to lie, I was pissed when I heard Democrats "caved”, but after thinking it over and hearing arguments from both sides I've changed my mind. Here's why:
On March 8th DACA will expire. Republicans promised they wanted to help the Dreamers yet they never passed anything in the 6 months prior where they've had the ability to do so. The White House has waffled on what they want and House conservatives despise immigrants. Does anyone really and truly believe they would've passed DACA before the deadline expired? Because I sure don't. There actions speak loudly on what their intentions are.
Maybe instead of dealing with a bill that their base despises, but 80% of the country supports they could just let it slip by as their base won't punish them. Or at least that's probably what they wanted. There was no guarantee of action on DACA. Zero. They figured they'd be able to get Democrats to cave and fund the government with the CHIP bargaining piece they've been screaming about funding. They figured Democrats would say “eh we got part of what we want let's hope Republicans will keep their word on DACA”. They figured wrong.
Democrats weren't fooled by this and instead held firm that we need a vote on DACA. On a meaningless vote we also allowed our vulnerable red state Senators to vote against the party and look moderate to boost their re-election chances in the fall. This of course surprised Republicans. The disbelief on McConnell’s face was real, but for a different reason. Now Republicans were stuck with a government shutdown under their unified control. They aren't stupid, no matter how much they tried to spin they knew they would get the majority of the blame and facing an already tough midterms would damage their ever shrinking chance at keeping the House.
They hoped after a day or two Democrats would come crawling back willing to reopen the government with no concessions needed. They thought that because of the past history this was what would happen. It didn't and Democrats held firm. That's when Republicans realized they needed to give something or else it would be a disaster for them. Democrats at the same time got together a coalition of 30 moderates from both parties to agree to the deal that was about to be struck.
McConnell gave them the public promise to move on DACA AND (this is the important part) do it before government funding runs out. Before there was no guarantee, now there is. This public promise as well as Democrats willing to play nice and reopen the government then gives the red state Democrats a bigger willingness to hold the line in 3 weeks. They have the backup evidence to do so “80% of Americans want Dreamers protected, McConnell promised us a vote, he broke that promise and that's why I'm not voting to fund the government today” is a much stronger argument then before.
Not only that, but the group of 30 moderates which include Republicans would be more likely to give cover to Democrats and vote with them to not fund the government if the promise to pass DACA isn't met. With McCain out and only a 1 vote margin there's a zero percent chance Republicans can invoke the nuclear option (this is why Alabama was soooo important).
Now Republicans have backed themselves into a corner. The only way the government reopens is if they pass some form of DACA without the wall (Republicans hate the wall too). That means either the conservative base goes apocalyptic on the party and in the House or they get the sole blame of the shutdown and economic damage it would cause.
The public wants DACA, they saw Democrats negotiate and be reasonable on an issue they agree with, but probably don't want to shut the government down over. Now congress has 3 weeks to come up with a solution. Democrats negotiated in good faith and if McConnell refuses a vote then people become more willing to shutdown the government over it based on the prior flexibility of Democrats.
Another possibility is the Senate passes a bill, the House refuses and the House GOP get the blame. Or they both pass a bill and Trump vetoes it, which based on the “Schumer gave him the wall and he still said no” meeting would place the blame directly on Trump.
This of course doesn't mention the fact that CHIP can't be used as a bargaining piece later on and gives families peace of mind after months of worry what would happen to their child’s healthcare. Most voters already saw the GOP take CHIP hostage so their opinion on the party is already sour and easier to get them to side with us in 3 weeks.
The dynamics have completely changed based on all the actions and statements of Democrats. There is no outcome where they lose now. Even if DACA passes it's a win for Democrats as their base is euphoric and Republicans base swear off ever voting Republican. If it comes to a shutdown we have all the leverage we need to beat Republicans with and if the shutdown lasts a long time there goes the one positive factor going into the midterms for the GOP: the economy. And why? Because they wouldn't pass a bill that 80% of Americans agree on.
Every single move has been used to give Democrats back up in case McConnell reneges on his pledge, which is likely. And for those worried Democrats won't hold firm in 3 weeks I point to this. Democrats were willing to shutdown the government if DACA wasn't passed even if it contained funding for 9 million children. Why in the hell would they not be willing to with less incentive? Doesn't make sense to me.
Let the Republicans crow about Democrats caving, let the nuclear meltdown on the left happen, both have no idea how brilliant of a position we are in to win DACA passage. It may not happen right away, but if it doesn't Republicans will pay a steep price thanks to the maneuvering of the Democrats in the Senate.
Bravo!