The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA Redistricting: On Monday, Pennsylvania's state Supreme Court dealt Republican gerrymandering a crippling blow when it struck down the GOP's congressional map for illegally discriminating against Democratic voters. The court has ordered the GOP-controlled legislature to draw and pass a new map by Feb. 15, in time for the 2018 elections, but Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf will almost certainly veto any new gerrymander if Republicans attempt one. If that were to happen, the court itself would draw new nonpartisan districts, which could lead to major Democratic gains this fall—anywhere from one to as many as six seats. And even better, the U.S. Supreme Court will likely have little leeway to overrule this decision.
Campaign Action
As shown in the first map at the top of this post (see here for a larger version), Republicans passed an extreme gerrymander following the 2010 census that enabled them to obtain a 13-to-5 majority in the state's congressional delegation, even though Pennsylvania is an evenly divided swing state. That lopsided distribution of seats held up in 2012 even as Obama won the Keystone State—and Democratic House candidates won more votes than Republicans statewide—and again in 2016, when Donald Trump barely carried it. As we have previously detailed, the second map shown here illustrates what a hypothetical nonpartisan map might look like, which would not only make for a more equitable partisan balance but also increase black representation.
In an important backdrop to this decision, Democrats won a pivotal majority on the state Supreme Court in the 2015 elections, giving the plaintiffs a fair shot at invalidating the GOP's map. And crucially, this legal challenge relied solely on the state constitution's guarantees of free speech and equal protection rights. Thus, as long as any new maps comply with federal law, the U.S. Supreme Court would have very little ability to override the state court's interpretation of Pennsylvania's own constitution. Democrats therefore aren't likely to face the same kind of disappointment they recently did in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans say they will still try to wage a long-shot appeal.
At the same time, because it's based on state law, this ruling doesn't set a legal precedent for other states. However, the standard the judges have established could influence federal courts that are hearing challenges to other partisan gerrymanders; plaintiffs in major cases in Maryland, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all attempting to invalidate similar gerrymanders in their states under the U.S. Constitution. This ruling could also encourage reformers to challenge maps elsewhere under their own state constitutions.
Ultimately, this ruling is a monumental victory against one of the worst Republican gerrymanders in the country, and it's a massive game-changer for Democratic chances of gaining a House majority in November.
Senate
● MD-Sen: Chelsea Manning, the former Army soldier who was convicted of sharing hundreds of thousands of classified military reports with the site Wikileaks, recently announced she'd challenge Sen. Ben Cardin in this year's Democratic primary, but over the weekend, she was seen keeping the kind of company that would make progressives aghast. On Saturday night, Manning appeared at a party in New York City celebrating the anniversary of Trump's inauguration that was attended by top deplorables like James O'Keefe, Jack Posobiec, and Mike Cernovich. Afterwards, Manning claimed she had been there to "crash" the event, but according to BuzzFeed, she was seen "smiling and socializing with attendees," and one unnamed source who claims to know Manning says "she was not there protesting" but rather "was there in a effort to bridge gaps between left and right."
● WI-Sen: Rich guy and 2012 GOP primary runner-up Eric Hovde continues to keep us guessing about whether he will dive into the August contest to face Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, but he seems to be leaning against it. Hovde recently told the Associated Press that Team Blue's unexpected victory last week in the state's 10th Senate District, a seat that had backed Trump 55-38, "factors in" to whether or not he'll run for the Senate again. Hovde added that if he sees more signs that Democrats are doing well in the cycle, that could also play a role in his decision. Last month, Hovde sounded a whole lot more interested in running, saying at the time that he was "taking certain steps" towards getting in.
Hovde said on Saturday, however, that doesn't feel compelled to decide in the next 30 days. Of course, Hovde said back in December of 2016 that he'd take six to nine months to make up his mind, so we wouldn't trust any timeline he put out. The Wisconsin filing deadline is at the beginning of June so, eventually, this will-he-or-won't-he saga will end. The Republican primary is currently a duel between businessman and veteran Kevin Nicholson, a former Democrat who has the support of the dystopian anti-tax Club for Growth, and state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who is closer to the state GOP establishment.
Gubernatorial
● HI-Gov: Hoo boy. Democratic Gov. David Ige was already reeling after the false missile alert that terrified the state of Hawaii a week ago, and the latest news is even worse. At a hearing before state lawmakers on Friday, Maj. Gen. Arthur Logan, the head of the state's national guard, testified that he had called Ige just two minutes after the false alarm went out to let him know it had been sent in error. The alert was not retracted, however, for another 36 minutes, leading state Rep. Kaniela Ing (who is running for Congress) to ask Logan, "If the governor found out it was a false alarm, why didn't he go straight to the media, straight to Twitter, straight to Facebook?"
Logan said he couldn't explain why, but Ige's own answer was just plain stunning. The governor delivered his annual State of the State address on Monday, and in his 50-minute speech he didn't address the missile scare once. But afterwards, when questioned by reporters, Ige claimed that the delay was due in part to the fact that he had … forgotten his Twitter password! [🤯HEAD EXPLODES🤯] Seriously? Seriously? He couldn't even reset the damn password? And what about all the 99 million other ways he could have communicated with the public? This is just insane. At this point, it's hard to imagine Ige could offer any sort of clarification that would feel reassuring.
Ige faces a challenge in August's Democratic primary from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who has been hammering the incumbent over his leadership. He just gave her a whole new line of attack, and if she really wants to troll him, well, she should take to Twitter.
● IA-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering all of 2017 are in. We'll start with the GOP side, where incumbent Kim Reynolds faces a June primary challenge from former Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett.
Reynolds, who was elevated from lieutenant governor to governor last spring when Terry Branstad was appointed ambassador to China, raised $3.74 million, and had $4.14 million in-the-bank. That haul includes $1.3 million from the Republican Governors Association. Corbett, who left office at the start of the year, took in $844,000 during this time, and he had $579,000 on-hand. However, Corbett announced all the way back in July that he had raised $804,000 in his first month on the campaign trail, so it looks like he couldn't attract many new donations after he grabbed the low-hanging fruit.
Things are a lot more crowded on the Democratic side. If no one takes at least 35 percent of the vote in June, the nominee will be selected by a party convention:
State Sen. Nate Boulton: $1.08 million raised, $481,000 cash-on-hand
SEIU 199 Leader Cathy Glasson: $1.32 million raised, $729,000 cash-on-hand
Businessman Fred Hubbell: $2.94 million raised, additional $118,000 self-funded, $1.23 million cash-on-hand
Former state party chair Andy McGuire: $422,000 raised, additional $255,000 self-funded, $255,000 cash-on-hand
Former Tom Vilsack chief of staff John Norris: $279,000 raised, additional $23,000 self-funded, $144,000 cash-on-hand
Two other Democrats we've mentioned before, former Des Moines School Board President Jonathan Neiderbach and former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn, each had less than $200 in the bank.
While Boulton has the support of a number of labor groups, the SEIU is very much in Glasson's camp. The national SEIU contributed $1.2 million to Glasson's campaign before the end of 2017 (which accounts for the vast majority of her fundraising), and Iowa Starting Line reports that they've donated more since then.
Hubbell is wealthy, but notably, he hasn't done much self-funding yet. There's a lot of time left before the primary, however, and Hubbell has the ability to underwrite his campaign if he wants to.
● IL-Gov: Uh, what primary is Chris Kennedy running in again? Speaking to a reporter the other day, Kennedy—who is ostensibly seeking the Democratic nomination in this year's gubernatorial race—inexplicably decided to offer praise for Illinois' Republican governor:
"I think Bruce Rauner is trying to do what he thinks is best for the state of Illinois. Now we may disagree on what that is. His willingness to speak truth to power, to take on the powers that have been strangling the economy for decades of this state, is something I think he should be applauded for."
Kennedy claimed his remarks were "taken out of context," but there's video of the exchange, and, well, no. Kennedy, a wealthy businessman who is the son of RFK, faces state Sen. Daniel Biss and billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker in the March primary.
● MO-Gov: Republican Gov. Eric Greitens is already under investigation by local law enforcement authorities for allegedly blackmailing a former lover with a compromising photo, and now he may be under federal investigation, too, though apparently concerning a different matter entirely. CNN says that the FBI recently began looking into Greitens, though it says the "scope" of the inquiry was "not immediately clear." However, Republican state Sen. Rob Schaff separately told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he's spoken to the FBI about a $500,000 donation that a wealthy donor, David Humphreys, gave to Greitens, who went on to support legislation that would have made it harder to sue Humphreys' building products company. An attorney for Greitens says his camp has "seen no indication of an FBI investigation."
● NV-Gov: On Monday, the Nevada State Education Association backed Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani in the June Democratic primary. Primary foe and fellow Commissioner Steve Sisolak received the endorsement of the Clark County Education Association earlier this month, and the two groups are often at odds. However, Jon Ralston says that the state group is more influential. Giunchigliani, who got her start as a special education teacher, led each group decades ago.
● OH-Gov: Rep. Marcia Fudge, who represents much of the Cleveland area, endorsed former state Attorney General Richard Cordray on Monday for the May Democratic primary. Fudge had previously supported former Rep. Betty Sutton, who dropped out of the race this month to become Cordray's running mate.
House
● CA-10: On Monday, engineer and businessman T.J. Cox received an endorsement from Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney, who represents the neighboring 9th Congressional District. Cox faces a Democratic field that includes investor Josh Harder, former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno, and emergency room nurse Dotty Nygard, while beekeeper Michael Eggman, the 2014 and 2016 nominee against GOP Rep. Jeff Dunham, is reportedly considering a third try.
● CA-49: On Monday, San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar, a Republican who was recently selected to chair the board, set up a campaign account with the FEC. Gaspar has not publicly announced that she'll run to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa yet, but Jason Roe, her campaign consultant, confirmed she was in. The Voice of San Diego reports that she'll have the support of San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Rep. Ed Royce (who is also retiring this year). Gaspar recently met with Speaker Paul Ryan in D.C., though there's no word if national Republicans favor her.
Gaspar was first elected to the county board in 2016 by unseating Democratic incumbent Dave Roberts 50.3-49.7 in an officially nonpartisan race even as Clinton was carrying her seat 57-37; several of Roberts' staffers had recently resigned and accused him of acting inappropriately. Gaspar made news in her first meeting on the board when she was the one member to vote against raising members' pay, though she later said she would accept the raise herself. Gaspar notably was the key vote on a bill barring new marijuana dispensaries and farms in San Diego County. Gaspar's colleagues picked her to chair the board earlier this month.
Gaspar joins Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, Board of Equalization Chair Diane Harkey, and San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Brian Maryott on the GOP side in the June top-two primary. Several Democrats are also seeking this coastal seat, which swung from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and Gaspar could make it tougher for two Republicans to grab both general election spots.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side of the aisle, Rep. Juan Vargas, who represents another House seat in the San Diego area, has thrown his support behind Sara Jacobs, a former Hillary Clinton presidential campaign policy adviser, in the crowded Democratic contest for this open seat.
● IL-03: Is Dan Lipinski finally feeling the heat? Just a few days after two fellow Democrats from Illinois' congressional delegation took the extremely unusual step of endorsing his primary challenger, businesswoman Marie Newman, Lipinski decided to quietly bow out of a planned speaking role at the "March for Life" in Washington, DC over the weekend. Lipinski claims he was a no-show after Trump was been added to the speakers' list, saying that because "no one knows what the President may say at any time … I did not want to put myself in a potentially morally compromised situation." That fear may well have motivated Lipinski to bail, but it's also true that now's not the time he wants to be touting his anti-choice credentials as loudly as he's accustomed to. And simply the fact that he's concerned about blowback, whatever the reason, suggests that he's actually taking his primary seriously.
● IN-08: National and state Democrats have wanted former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel to run for higher office for years (he's been recruited for governor, Senate, and the House), and they may be about to get their wish. The Courier & Press reports that leading Democrats "expect" Weinzapfel will announce a bid in the next week and that he has privately told them he’s running. Weinzapfel, who currently serves as the chancellor of Ivy Tech Community College's local campus, was more coy, though he said he told people on Saturday that he "would make a public announcement either way next week." Weinzapfel ran for a previous version of this seat all the way back in 1996, and he narrowly lost to GOP incumbent John Hostettler 50-48.
This seat, which includes Terre Haute and Evansville, has historically been very competitive territory. The district was even once so infamous for ousting incumbents from both parties that for decades, it was known as "The Bloody 8th." (We think the Pink Slip Seat is better, but we don't come up with these nicknames.) The GOP has been doing very well here across the board in recent years, however, and the seat went from a rough 58-40 Romney to a brutal 65-31 Trump. Despite years of uncompetitive elections, Bucshon had just a meh $412,000 in the bank at the end of September, and if voters are once again looking to fire someone, he may not be prepared to ward them off.
● MS-03: On Monday, state Sen. Sally Doty announced she was joining the GOP primary for this conservative open seat. Doty, who represents Brookhaven at the southern end of the district, has served as Elections Committee chair, where the Clarion Ledger says she "helped pass sweeping campaign finance reform," though she helped keep early voting and online voter registration out of the final bill. Doty also successfully pushed for the state's first divorce-reform bill in decades, which proponents said would make it easier for abused spouses to get out of their marriages. If Doty wins, she would be Mississippi's first-ever female member of Congress. (Vermont is the only other remaining state with this not-so-nice claim to fame.)
Doty has some competition in the June primary, however. Also in the running are Baptist Health Foundation President Whit Hughes, who is quite well-connected; Michael Guest, who serves as district attorney of Madison and Rankin Counties in the Jackson suburbs; and investment manager Perry Parker. The filing deadline for this 61-37 Trump seat is in early March, so prospective candidates have a bit more time to decide. If no one takes a majority of the vote in the June primary, there will be a runoff three weeks later.
● PA-07: On Saturday, the New York Times published a bombshell story reporting that GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, who represents a competitive seat in the Philadelphia suburbs, had used thousands in taxpayer dollars to settle a misconduct complaint leveled against him by a former staffer.
The woman, whose name has been withheld, says that in 2016, a senior male aide to Meehan professed a romantic interest in her. She reported the advance to Meehan, and the senior aide left after a reaching an agreement with the congressman. But soon afterwards, Meehan, who is married, himself became interested in the woman, according to the Times, growing "jealous" when he found out she was dating someone and "hostile" when she did not reciprocate his attentions, which included a handwritten letter.
The woman filed a complaint against Meehan last summer and left her job, and the two eventually reached a confidential settlement. The Times, which based this report on interviews with 10 individuals, says that the woman's complaint led to "estrangement from her colleagues, and isolation from friends, family and her boyfriend," adding that the amount she received did not "cover her legal and living expenses while she was out of work."
After the story broke, Meehan's office issued a statement saying the congressman "denies these allegations" and calling on his former aide to wave the confidentiality agreement governing their settlement. While some Democrats have called for Meehan to resign, no Republicans have as yet. However, House Speaker Paul Ryan immediately removed Meehan from the House Ethics Committee, where Meehan had, in a painful irony, been involved in combating sexual harassment, and insisted he should repay the taxpayer money he used to settle the matter.
But Meehan's—and the GOP's—woes go much deeper. Meehan's swingy seat narrowly went for both Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, but up until this week, he presented a very tough target for Democrats. Notably, Meehan had a reputation as a whatever passes for a moderate in today's Republican Party, and he was a strong fundraiser. But the NRCC is now acting leery of Meehan, with committee chair Steve Stivers saying that, while he's "not going to assume somebody's guilty until proven innocent," he wants to wait until the facts come out before deciding if his organization will support the congressman. That's anything but a strong expression of support.
Soon enough, though, the GOP may not even have a 7th District that's worth saving, at least as we presently know it. On Monday, the state Supreme Court struck down Pennsylvania's GOP-drawn congressional map, which you can read about in greater detail in our lead item. But we'll just note that the 7th District is a strong contender for the most gerrymandered House seat in the nation, having been likened to "Goofy kicking Donald Duck."
Just over half of this inkblot of a seat is located in Meehan's home base of Delaware County, from whence it awkwardly snakes north to take in part Montgomery County, while a narrow corridor connects the seat to more conservative turf to the west. This seat is likely to get a bit bluer under a new map, and while it might not transform into an automatic Democratic pickup, it will be tougher for Team Red to hold, whether with a damaged Meehan or an entirely new nominee.
We also saw a new development on the Democratic side on Monday. A few hours before the state Supreme Court released its ruling, former CIA officer Shelly Chauncey announced she would run. Chauncey, who has worked undercover in Latin America and East Asia, has not sought office before, but she may already have some useful political connections. An unnamed Delaware County political insider tells the Philadelphia Inquirer that "one or two" major donors are supporting her, and Chauncey herself says that EMILY's List "seem[s] supportive and are offering their assistance."
A few other Democrats have been running here, but state Sen. Daylin Leach was the only one who had raised much money by the end of September. Leach was accused of sexual harassment in mid-December and said he would "step back" from his campaign, but he hasn't said if he'll get re-enter the race or not. Needless to say, Leach is exactly the wrong candidate to prosecute the case against Meehan. However, with Pennsylvania's congressional map and Pat Meehan's career in flux, the field may change a lot here. The candidate filing deadline is set for early March, but that date could also change pending the implementation of a new map.
● PA-18: There've been reports of private polls showing a single-digit race for the March 13 special election Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, but now there's public confirmation that we've got a very tight contest on our hands, thanks to a new survey from DFM Research, conducted on behalf of the Transportation Division of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers (which has endorsed the Democrat):
Conor Lamb (D): 38
Rick Saccone (R): 41
Undecided: 21
As a reminder, this district went for Donald Trump by a 58-39 margin, but his standing there has since diminished considerably, as DFM's poll gives him just a 49-47 job approval rating. Still, this election should be a snooze-fest for the GOP, yet it's clearly anything but, and this poll is far from the only evidence we have.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with close ties to Paul Ryan, is reportedly gearing up to dump a massive $1.5 million on to the airwaves to prop up the flailing Saccone, which comes on top of heavy spending by two other Republican groups—and a visit to the district just last week by none other than Trump himself. There's still no word, though, as to whether any outside groups are planning to come in to help Lamb, but his fundraising to date has been far superior to Saccone's.
P.S. The new ruling by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court invalidating the state's congressional map (see our lead item) would not affect this special election, though this district could change ahead of the regularly scheduled November general elections.
● TX-21: Eighteen Republicans are running in the March primary to succeed longtime GOP Rep. Lamar Smith, and the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek takes a look at this oversized field. Svitek writes that there are at least four candidates seen as "more serious:" state Rep. Jason Isaac, former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy, former Bexar County GOP Chair Robert Stovall, and former CIA agent William Negley. That last name is new to us, but Svitek makes a good case for why he could have a shot.
Negley has been emphasizing his experience in Afghanistan, and his yard signs unsubtly label him as a "terrorist hunter." Lots of candidates have interesting backstories but don't have the resources to inform many voters about them, but Negley seems to have friends in high places. Svitek says that not only does Negley hail from a "prestigious family," but he also has the support of state GOP megadonor Red McCombs.
A number of other Republicans are seeking this seat, and some of them have name recognition from previous runs. Most notable is former Rep. Quico Canseco, who was elected to his only term in the neighboring 23rd District in the 2010 GOP wave. However, only about 2 percent of Canseco's old seat is in the 21st, and Canseco's own electoral history is otherwise unimpressive. Most recently, Canseco ran for the 23rd again in 2014 and lost the primary runoff 59-41 to eventual winner Will Hurd. Matt McCall, a perennial candidate who lost the 2016 primary to Smith 60-29, is also in for another bout.
Given how crowded the March primary is, it's plausible that Canseco or McCall could take first or second place through their existing name recognition even if they don't run particularly strong races. In the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, there will be a runoff in May. This seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio and takes up part of the Texas Hill Country, went from 60-38 Romney to a smaller 52-42 spread for Trump, and it could be a good Democratic target in a strong year.
● VA-10: Susan Platt, a former Senate chief of staff to Joe Biden, announced Saturday that she would stay out of the very crowded Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock.
● WI-01: It seems that every month there's a new rumor that Speaker Paul Ryan will step down as the GOP House leader before or shortly after the 2018 elections no matter how they turn out. Ryan notably didn't commit to running for re-election when he was asked about it on Face The Nation on Sunday, saying, "I'm not gonna share my thinking with you before I even talk to my wife," adding, "We're doing fine, I have no plans of going anywhere anytime soon, but that's something my wife and I always decide in late spring of the election year."
Ryan has been very active in the GOP's efforts to keep the House, and it would be a huge surprise, as well as quite bad for the party's morale, if he decided to retire in the middle of a tough cycle. Wisconsin's candidate filing deadline is June 1.
Legislative
● NC Redistricting: In 2017, the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that ordered North Carolina's Republican-dominated legislature to redraw the state's legislative districts due to illegal racial discrimination. Republicans passed new districts last year, but these maps also faced continued opposition from the plaintiffs in the case for discriminating against black voters. On Friday, the lower court imposed legislative districts drawn by a court-appointed nonpartisan expert to replace a handful of the GOP's recently redrawn districts that still contained constitutional violations.
These court-ordered districts won't entirely eliminate the effects of the GOP's gerrymanders, since they're largely limited to a few sizable counties. However, even partially court-drawn maps could give Democrats a strong chance of breaking the GOP's three-fifths supermajorities to allow them to sustain Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's vetoes. Unlike in a recent decision where the Supreme Court overturned a ruling that struck down North Carolina's congressional map for excessive partisanship, there's a much stronger chance that they won't block this ruling, since the jurisprudence against racial gerrymandering is much firmer.
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Pennsylvania HD-35: This is an open seat just outside of Pittsburgh. It was vacated by Democrat Marc Gergely, who pleaded guilty to charges stemming from his involvement in an illegal gambling machine ring.
The Democratic nominee is Austin Davis, the vice chair of the Allegheny County Democratic Party. The Republican nominee is Fawn Walker-Montgomery, a member of the McKeesport City Council. Walker-Montgomery ran for this seat in 2016 and lost 63-37. This seat went 58-39 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 64-35 for Barack Obama in 2012.
