Just watched Chuck Schumer’s interview with Rachel Maddow and now feel that Schumer is truly playing Moneyball, as I speculated in an earlier post. First of all, Schumer is very clear eyed about the chances that DACA will ever win passage. 50/50? Maybe not that good. He faces immigration hardliners at every turn who can’t agree on what they could live with in any DACA proposal.
Did Schumer cave on Friday when he thought he had an agreement with Trump? There was no agreement according to Schumer. The proposal was pulled by Trump aides before it ever got close to an agreement. As Schumer tells it, the outlines of the agreement that eventually reopened the government and included CHIP funding and a public promise from McConnell for a debate and vote on DACA by Feb. 8 did not emerge until Sunday night. Schumer recognized this small but significant concession and readily took it. He recognized that the shutdown had already inflicted the maximum damage on the Republicans that was likely to occur. He also felt that Republican messaging was beginning to take its toll on red state Democratic senators. Now, the focus is squarely on McConnell who either must show some leadership and find a bill that can muster 60 votes or admit that Republicans were never seriously behind a DACA fix. If he can get the votes, then the real fun begins in the House where all bets are off.
So bottom line, Schumer surveyed the battlefield and determined a small victory and a chance to fight again on a battlefield more conducive to a Democratic win was worth taking.