New year!
… old election.
Also, those thousands of new elections coming up this fall.
But we need to dispense with one of the outstanding ones from November 2017 first. (Maybe!)
The rather epic and unpredictable journey of the election in Virginia House District 94 has taken perhaps its final turn. (Unless it hasn’t! Is the election alive or dead?)
- After a decision by the three-judge recount panel to deny Democrat Shelly Simonds’ request to reconsider their lousy decision that moved the race from a one-vote win for Simonds to a tie, the race was determined by the drawing of lots on Thursday morning.
- The film canister containing a slip of paper with Republican Del. David Yancey’s name was drawn from a stoneware bowl, making him the official winner of the election and giving Republicans a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates when it convenes on Jan. 10.
But! This race still might not be over.
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- Simonds may opt to ask for yet another recount, which may or may not be permitted by state law.
- While one statute says that recount proceedings "shall be final and not subject to appeal," a separate statute says that whoever loses the drawing of lots may seek another recount.
- A lawsuit over the recount judges’ garbage decision to count a previously-unchallenged-and-discarded ballot is also possible.
Additionally, there’s the itty bitty matter of the 147 voters in the House District 28 election who received ballots for the incorrect district. Democrat Joshua Cole lost this race by just 73 votes, which is, like, fewer than the 147 voters who got ballots for the wrong district, Democrats have asked a federal court to order a new election.
- A hearing on the matter is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on Friday.
Okay, enough Virginia for the moment.
The majority of the nation’s legislatures convene in January, and 6,066 legislative seats will be on the ballot this fall, which means we’re about to be up to our eyeballs in statehouse action all over the place.
Live Free or Poll Tax: Republicans in New Hampshire are moving forward with their plan to essentially impose a poll tax on a certain segment of the electorate that tends to not vote for them.
Fun fact! This latest proposal is also very similar to a law that the New Hampshire Supreme Court struck down in 2015.
Land of 10,000 Titles: When Democratic Lt. Gov. Tina Smith replaced Al Franken as U.S. Senator from Minnesota, Republican Senate president Michelle Fischbach automatically ascended to the right hand of Mark Dayton the position of lieutenant governor.
- But Fischbach wants to have her statewide office and eat it, too: She doesn’t want to give up her seat in the closely divided Minnesota state Senate (34 Republicans, 32 Democrats, and one Democratic open seat) to serve as LG.
- That’s kinda too bad, though, because the state constitution prohibits anyone serving in the state Senate from also serving as lieutenant governor.
- Fischbach is trying to clumsily walk a line she thinks will prevent her from having to resign from the Senate.
- Minnesota Democrats are planning to sue to force Fischbach out of her Senate seat if she continues to try to hold both offices.
- Fischbach has vowed to run for her own seat again if she’s forced to resign and a special election is called.
Expect Democrats to play hardball against Fischbach’s have-it-both-ways ploy; the state Senate isn’t up for election again until 2020, so a Fischbach exit would give Democrats a glimmer of a shadow of a chance to flip the chamber before then. (Her seat is very red, but stranger things have happened in special elections this cycle.)
Oooooooklahoma, Where The Lines Come Sweeping Down The Plains: A group in Oklahoma wants to change the way legislative districts are drawn in the state.
- “Represent Oklahoma” plans to collect signatures to place a “state question” on the ballot that would create an independent redistricting commission.
- While the language for the measure “isn’t finalized,” Represent Oklahoma says the commission would include members of all the state’s recognized political parties—and lawmakers, lobbyists, and their families would be prohibited from serving on it.
Fun fact! Democrats flipped four heavily Republican legislative seats in Oklahoma from red to blue in 2017!
Foxconned: Remember that ugly corporate giveaway Wisconsin Republicans gave to a flat-screen manufacturer to woo their factory to the state?
- The GOP-controlled legislature was so desperate to woo the Foxconn facility to the state that it passed legislation that:
- Has state taxpayers forking over up to $2.85 billion to the company as an incentive to build their plant and hire workers;
- Exempts Foxconn projects from state environmental rules and protections; and
- Essentially creates a separate state court system just for Foxconn.
- Foxconn-related lawsuits skip the normal appeals process and appeals are expedited to the state Supreme Court, where conservatives just happen to hold a majority.
- Any ruling by lower trial courts would be automatically stayed until a higher court (likely that state Supreme Court) takes action on the case.
- Well, that all happened in 2017, but now it’s an election year, and state Democrats plan to use Republicans’ Foxconn votes against them in November 2018.
- Democratic Assembly Leader Gordon Hintz is compiling a list of highway projects and their corresponding districts that will be delayed as the state prioritizes construction on roads near Foxconn’s proposed plant—ideal fodder for direct mail and campaign ads.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin lawmakers continue to wait on a decision in a potentially landmark partisan gerrymandering case targeting their map for the state Assembly that’s before the U.S. Supreme Court. A ruling against the Republican-gerrymandered maps could result in way less crappy legislative districts before the 2018 elections.
Empire Statehouse: The 2018 election season is beginning to heat up in New York, too, as a group of legit Democrats gears up to take on the Independent Democratic Conference.
- The IDC is a group of turncoat state Senate DINOs who broke away from the Democrats in 2011 to share power with Republicans, thus giving the minority party effective majority control of a legislative chamber in one of the bluest states in the nation.
- The IDC has prevented a number of progressive agenda items from becoming law in New York, such as expanding reproductive rights, transgender rights, healthcare access, and voting rights.
- But progressive Democratic candidates are already stepping forward to take on the well-financed, entrenched incumbents of the IDC in primaries this year.
- And if 2017’s elections are any harbinger, voters are eager this cycle to elect candidates who support progressive policies. New York’s September primaries will be well worth watching.
Bird’s The Word: Basketball Hall of Famer Larry Bird’s older brother (Mark) just announced he’s running for a seat in the Indiana state House (he’s a Democrat, by the by), which is a pretty solid segue to this week’s data interlude.
- Check out our fresh new data from Indiana, which brings the number of states for which we’ve finished calculating the 2016 presidential results in all legislative districts to 47. You can find our master list of states right here, and a summary of the median seats in each chamber right over here.
Time to go break some New Year’s resolutions. Until next week!