Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/1

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news.

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Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 3:53:03 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: On Monday, Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello endorsed Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum as both parties have been competing for Florida's growing share of Puerto Rican voters. Indeed, Republican Gov. Rick Scott in particular had unsuccessfully sought out Rossello's backing against Nelson after visiting Puerto Rico eight times since Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017 and prompted tens of thousands of citizens to relocate to Florida.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 4:00:30 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

TN-Sen: The Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity has dumped another $499k into Tennessee to oppose Democrat Phil Bredesen and support Republican Marsha Blackburn over health care.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 4:09:45 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

TX-Sen: Outside groups continue to up their investment to save vulnerable GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, and the PAC Texans Are has added another $1.1 million to oppose Democrat Beto O'Rourke. Additionally, the hardline anti-tax Club for Growth has made another $868,000 buy against O'Rourke. Their spot recycles an earlier attack that claims O'Rourke favored using eminent domain while on the El Paso City Council to "bulldoze a neighborhood" and transfer the land to his "billionaire" developer father-in-law, insinuating it was part of a corruption scheme.

However, as we noted back when the Club hit O'Rourke on the issue last month, O'Rourke's father-in-law had promised to donate any profits to a nonprofit organization to avoid a conflict of interest. Furthermore, O'Rourke ultimately voted to ban the use of eminent domain for this project following public input, and the proposed redevelopment never ended up happening.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 4:21:47 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

MN-Gov: Things continue to look increasingly dire for Republican Jeff Johnson after the RGA canceled another two weeks of their ad reservation here. The RGA still has time booked for the final two weeks through Election Day, but Johnson is looking like a decided underdog with just five weeks to go.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 4:51:13 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

NM-Gov: Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham has debuted a response ad to a recent commercial from Republican Steve Pearce that had attacked the integrity of a terminally ill man who had defended her in one of her previous spots. Lujan Grisham's ad calls Pearce "reprehensible" for "smear[ing] a man with stage four pancreatic cancer just to win a political campaign." It then excoriates Pearce for his false attacks without repeating them, and the spot finishes by blasting Pearce for repeatedly voting to raise healthcare premiums for older people and to remove protections for pre-existing conditions.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 5:06:49 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

RI-Gov: The RGA has contributed another $475,000 to their affiliated group Rhode Island Forward. WPRI's Ted Nesi says this takes their total investment here to $925,000 so far, while the DGA has sent $1 million to aid Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 5:14:55 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

IA-01: Democrat Abby Finkenauer is up with what we believe is her first ad highlighting the House Ethics Committee investigation against Republican incumbent Rod Blum. Last month, the committee announced they were extending their investigation and planned to announce "a course of action" on or before Dec. 17. While the committee didn't specify what it was investigating Blum for, he soon angrily confirmed that it was about reports that he'd broken House ethics rules for failing to disclose a company he played a role in.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 5:22:28 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

TX-07: GOP Rep. John Culberson's newest spot stars Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, who generated plenty of positive attention last year for housing people displaced by Hurricane Harvey at his furniture stores. McIngvale excitedly tells the audience that "We are Texans and we take care of each other," and that he knows of no other Texan in Washington "who took care of Houston better during the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey than my friend John Culberson."

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 5:30:07 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

TX-32: GOP Rep. Pete Sessions went up with his first TV spot over the weekend, and it features several arrows hitting one of his campaign yard signs. Sessions explains to the audience "the liberals" have made him a target because they're out for "revenge because I ran the campaign that removed Nancy Pelosi as speaker," a reference to his role as NRCC chair during the 2010 GOP wave. The incumbent then pledges to keep working for "free enterprise" and good jobs and healthcare.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 5:41:17 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Chicago, IL Mayor: On Monday, Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia announced that he would not run for mayor next year. Garcia, who lost to incumbent Rahm Emanuel 56-44 in 2015, had been considering a second bid, and he allowed his allies to open a fundraising committee for him last month. However, Garcia is the Democratic nominee for a safely blue House seat this year, and he said he felt like he "need[ed] to keep my word to the people who voted for me" for Congress rather than immediately seek another new office.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 6:03:59 PM +00:00 · David Jarman

Demographics: We’re only a little more than halfway through the 2010s-era House map, and with the 2017 American Community Survey newly released, David Jarman takes a closer look at which congressional districts are growing the fastest (and also which ones are shrinking), comparing 2000 Census to 2017 ACS figures. Unsurprisingly, the biggest gains are heavily concentrated in Texas and Florida, both of which are also projected to gain multiple seats through reapportionment in 2022. The article also looks at which CDs have seen the largest gains or losses among residents of particular races and ethnicities (with the largest gains among people of color occurring in Sun Belt states as well).

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 6:32:22 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

TX-23: One-upping a more-subtle attack ad from their allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund, the NRCC’s latest spot outright accuses Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones of only using her Spanish-derived middle name when it was time to run for office in this heavily Latino district. As we noted when the CLF dropped their ad calling her just "Gina Jones" last week, Ortiz Jones is a Filipina-American who was raised by her immigrant single mother, Victorina Ortiz. While this district is predominantly Mexican-American, both of those countries bear some commonalities of having both once been Spanish colonies, and these ads are an attempt to "other" her.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 7:10:54 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Ad Roundup:

• IN-Sen: Majority Forward (against Mike Braun (R))
• ND-Sen: Kevin Cramer (R)
• AZ-Gov: RGA (against David Garcia (D))
• AZ-02: DCCC (against Lea Marquez Peterson (R))
• CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc)
• FL-18: Lauren Baer (D)
• IA-03: David Young (R-inc); DCCC (against David Young (R-inc))
• IN-02: Mel Hall (D)
• MI-06: Fred Upton (R-inc)
• MN-01: Dan Feehan (D)
• MN-02: Angie Craig (D)
• MO-02: Cort VanOstran (D)
• NC-02: DCCC (against George Holding (R-inc))
• NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc)
• NV-03: Congressional Leadership Fund (against Susie Lee (D))
• VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D)

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 7:31:48 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Polls:

• FL-Sen: Cherry Communications (R) for the Florida Chamber of Commerce: Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48, Rick Scott (R): 46 (June: 48-45 Scott)
• FL-Sen: PPP (D): Nelson (D-inc): 48, Scott (R): 44 (August: 46-45 Nelson)
• MO-Sen: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Josh Hawley (R): 48, Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (July: 48-46 Hawley)
• MT-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group (D) for AARP: Jon Tester (D-inc): 50, Matt Rosendale (R): 43
• MT-Sen: PPP (D) for Protect Our Care: Tester (D-inc): 49, Rosendale (R): 45
• NJ-Sen: Stockton University: Bob Menendez (D-inc): 45, Bob Hugin (R): 43

While the AARP recently released a few polls that only sampled voters over the age of 50, this Montana poll is for the entire electorate. While the release says the poll " included an oversample of 350 voters 50+ for additional analysis," they add that "[d]ata was weighed to ensure it was representative of the likely voting universe."

We've seen very few polls of the Montana Senate race in the last month. A mid-September YouGov poll gave Tester a 47-45 lead, while an NRSC survey had a 44-44 tie.

New Jersey has been polled even less. A Quinnipiac poll from mid-August gave Menendez a 43-37 lead, but we have little other information.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 7:49:41 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

CA-39: After a barrage of blistering ads by the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund accusing Democrat Gil Cisneros of being a sexual harasser based on accusations from a former Democratic candidate for state Assembly, Melissa Fazli, Fazli herself issued a press release via the Cisneros campaign on Monday withdrawing her allegations and denouncing the CLF. In her own words:

"I misunderstood the conversations that I had with Gil Cisneros at the Democratic convention and after. I don’t believe that Gil sexually harassed me. The Congressional Leadership Fund lied. Rather than standing with victims and survivors of harassment and assault, they are weaponizing my story for their own political gain. I denounce their ads. Emotions, anxiety, and stress have multiplied 100-fold for women like myself during this MeToo movement. I believe Mr. Cisneros has a good heart and is truly sorry for the handling of my accusations."

Fazli first made her claims ahead of the June top-two primary, and several of those Cisneros' major Democratic rivals said at the time they "cannot be ignored." However, every bona fide Democrat in the primary endorsed Cisneros after he advanced to the November general election, and no major media outlets ended up covering the story. Nevertheless, that didn't stop the CLF from running ad after ad trying to smear Cisneros as a predator, and it's unlikely to stop them from continuing that line of attack.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 7:59:54 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Polls:

• FL-Gov: Cherry Communications (R) for the Florida Chamber of Commerce: Andrew Gillum (D): 48, Ron DeSantis (R): 42 (September: 47-43 Gillum)
• FL-Gov: PPP (D): Gillum (D): 48, DeSantis (R): 44 (August: 48-43 Gillum)
• NH-Gov: ARG: Chris Sununu (R-inc): 49, Molly Kelly (D): 44
• NY-Gov: Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D-inc): 50, Marc Molinaro (R): 28, Cynthia Nixon (Working Families Party): 10

This is the first poll we've seen of the New Hampshire gubernatorial contest since August, when the University of New Hampshire found Sununu up 48-32. Other polls also have given Sununu strong approval ratings and major outside groups haven't been airing ads here, and we currently rate this as Likely Republican.

In New York, some leaders of the Working Families Party are trying to swap out Nixon, who lost last month's Democratic primary to Cuomo, for the governor. However, it's very unlikely Cuomo will have any trouble winning in November no matter who gets the WFP line.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:01:33 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

WV-03, WV Supreme Court: Former Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins resigned his seat on Sunday and was sworn in West Virginia's newest state Supreme Court justice on Monday, handing Republicans a majority on that court after the GOP-led legislature impeached all of the sitting justices under unseemly circumstances. Jenkins and another Republican appointee will face the voters in November to fill out the remaining terms of two justices who had already resigned prior to removal from office, but there won't be a special election to fill the remainder of Jenkins' House term.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:26:22 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Polls:

• CA-45: GBA Strategies (D) for End Citizens United: Katie Porter (D): 48, Mimi Walters (R-inc): 47
• FL-15: Bold Blue Campaigns (D): Ross Spano (R): 49, Kristen Carlson (D): 46
• IA-03: Siena for the New York Times: Cindy Axne (D): 44, David Young (R-inc): 43
• MT-AL: Benenson Strategy Group (D) for AARP: Greg Gianforte (R-inc): 46, Kathleen Williams (D): 45
• NH-01: ARG: Chris Pappas (D) 55: Eddie Edwards (R): 33
• NH-02: ARG: Annie Kuster (D-inc): 54, Steven Negron (R): 27
• NJ-11: National Research (R) for Jay Webber: Mikie Sherrill (D): 46, Jay Webber (R): 43
• WA-05: FM3 (D) for Lisa Brown: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-inc): 49, Lisa Brown (D): 46

The poll of California's 45th District gives Porter a smaller lead than the recent Siena survey, which had her up 48-43.

The Democratic firm Bold Blue Campaigns says this poll was "independently funded." An early September poll for Carlson's campaign gave her a 48-47 edge in a seat that Trump carried 53-43. So far, no major outside groups have run ads here.

We've seen very little polling out of Montana, and major outside also have yet to run ads here.

The only other survey we've seen out of New Jersey's 11th was a late June Monmouth survey that gave Sherrill a narrow 40-38. Webber's poll gives Trump a 49 percent approval rating, which seems very high. While Trump carried this seat 49-48, this is one of the many well-educated suburban seats where Republicans are especially vulnerable this year.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:27:38 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

CO-06: On Friday, the Congressional Leadership Fund cut off their entire $1 million reservation that had been intended to aid vulnerable Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, but now the NRCC is adding $600,000 to their own buy to support him. However, a mid-September Siena survey for the New York Times had Democrat Jason Crow trouncing Coffman 51-40, and now a new poll by the Democratic firm Normington Petts conducted for End Citizens United finds a similar 49-38 Crow edge after their July poll had Coffman up 44-41.

Last month, the New York Times reported that the well-funded CLF was frustrated that the NRCC hadn't abandoned weak incumbents. Consequently, it may be the NRCC, which partly relies on dues-paying incumbents, is wary of sending less vulnerable incumbents the message that they'll be cut off at a moment's notice if things turn south, lest it prompt seemingly safe members to horde their cash for themselves. That concern is something a megadonor-funded super PAC like CLF doesn't have to worry about.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:33:57 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

PA-10: Medium Buying reports the DCCC will be making its first foray into Pennsylvania's redrawn 10th District, with an ad buy of unspecified size starting on Friday to support Democrat George Scott against Republican Rep. Scott Perry.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:36:34 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

MT-Sen: The American Hospital Association has launched a $353,000 media buy for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:36:46 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

PA-16: The DCCC is increasing their ad buy against Republican Rep. Mike Kelly, bringing their full amount here to $325,000.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:38:27 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

MI-06: The American Hospital Association is spending $254,000 on a media buy in support of GOP Rep. Fred Upton, while the progressive group Change Now has thrown down another $100,000 against him.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:39:43 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

VA-07: The political arm of the League of Conservation Voters has announced a two-week ad buy against GOP Rep. Dave Brat for $327,000.

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 8:44:12 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

House: We have some more outside spending. The political arm of the National Association of Realtors is airing ads in support of four Republicans:

• CO-06: $258,000
• KY-06: $399,000
• TX-07: $352,000
• TX-32: $401,000

Meanwhile, Michael Bloomberg's super PAC Independence USA is spending on digital ads behalf of Democrats in four races:

• CO-06: $210,000
• KS-03: $351,000
• MN-03: $256,000
• NV-04: $80,000

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 9:02:41 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

KS-03: On Sunday, The Hill reported that the NRCC had canceled the $1.2 million in TV time it still had reserved to defend GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, with an unnamed source indicating it was because Team Red was feeling pessimistic about this suburban Kansas City seat. Yoder tried to put on a brave face and noted that the NRCC was still doing a coordinated ad buy for him. However, the NRCC says that buy is just for $95,000.

However, Yoder isn't being left to fend for himself against Democrat Sharice Davids, or at least, not yet. The Hill reports that the well-funded conservative super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund still has $750,000 reserved for this seat. However, the group has already spent $1.8 million against Davids, and that may not have done her enough damage. A recent Siena poll gave Davids a 51-43 lead, and while we thought that was too good to be true at the time, the NRCC's actions indicate that they're also seeing bad numbers.

The NRCC's move was unexpected, but there were signs that Yoder was worried about this fate. Just before Labor Day, Politico reported that Yoder was complaining to his allies that the committee wasn't doing enough to help him. But hey, at least he still has that sweet $95,000 coordinated ad buy!

Monday, Oct 1, 2018 · 9:02:51 PM +00:00 · David Nir

Fundraising: The third fundraising quarter of 2018 ended on Sunday night, and smart campaigns have already started sharing their hauls ahead of the FEC's Oct. 15 filing deadline. The numbers have been eye-popping, with four candidates—all Democrats—announcing seven-figure takes. We'll also have our usual House fundraising chart after the reporting deadline, but in the meantime, we're keeping track of all those $1 million-plus quarters here.

One other note: For the first time ever, Senate candidates will be required to file their fundraising reports electronically, just as House candidates have for over two decades. We're therefore hopeful that we'll be able to bring you a similar chart of Senate fundraising data after Oct. 15.

• CA-10: Josh Harder (D): $3.5 million raised
• IL-13: Betsy Londrigan (D): $1.7 million raised
• KY-06: Amy McGrath (D): $3.65 million raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
• NJ-04: Josh Welle (D): $750,000 raised
• NY-24: Dana Balter (D): $1.5 million raised

Despite all the gonzo million-dollar announcements, the most telling haul might actually be Welle: Though he's running in a very difficult district (Trump carried it 56-41, making it the reddest in New Jersey), he managed to raise what at any other time would be an enormous figure. In fact, says Welle, it's more than what anyone has ever raised against GOP Rep. Chris Smith for an entire cycle! So if Welle is pulling in this kind of cash, just imagine what folks in more competitive seats are going to report.