California recently surpassed the United Kingdom (😮!) to become the World’s fifth largest economy, if measured separately from the united states. Since the Great Recession, California has added 2 million jobs and grown its GDP by $700 billion. The state has 12% of the U.S. population, but has contributed 16% of the country's job growth over the last five years. Governor Jerry Brown inherited a budget deficit when he took office in 2011, but the state now has a $9 billion budget surplus. And all the while, Democrats dominate California politics. Democrats hold a super-majority in the state legislature and a near(1) super-majority in the state senate. Both Senators are Democrats, and only 14 of the 53 member congressional delegation are Republicans...for now(2). And under almost single party dominance and economic success, Democrats are doing something staggering: building the Nation’s first entirely new high speed rail network. Yes, this is actually happening.
History
The history of California High Speed Rail (CAHSR) dates back to 1996, when the State legislature chartered the CAHSR Authority (CAHSRA) to prepare for a ballot measure in 1998 or 2000. The ballot measure was delayed until 2008 over budgetary concerns by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, when it finally appeared as Proposition 1a on the ballot. Proposition 1a passed 52.6% to 47.4% (Obama won California 61% to 37%). Proposition 1a allocated $9 billion for the construction of CAHSR from San Francisco to Los Angeles.
The present estimate for the completed system is $77.3 billion.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 included $8 billion for High Speed Rail, according to legend, at the urging of Joe Biden. California initially received $2.343 billion of that $8 billion, plus an additional $0.898 billion in 2010, for a total of $3.241 billion. Because of the time it takes to actually allocate the funds, which is a subject for a separate diary, implementation is highly vulnerable to changing political climates at the state level.
After the 2010 midterms, states that had initially requested and received (but not yet allocated) funding, rejected those funds at the behest of their newly elected Republican Governors. California received an additional $0.624 billion from Ohio and Wisconsin, plus $0.3 billion of the $2.02 billion Florida’s Governor Rick Scott rejected, for a total of $0.924 billion.
When you add up all these sources, California has about $13 billion for high speed rail (in 2010 dollars). As you can see, that’s not nearly close to the $77.3 billion (2018 dollars), which will only rise as time goes on due to escalation.
What is CAHSR?
417(3) miles of 350(4) km/h High Speed Rail from San Jose to Los Angeles, plus an additional 51 miles of 165 km/h from San Jose to San Francisco, plus an additional approx. 50 miles of 200 km/h trackage from the main route to Merced and Anaheim. This is all to be built in what is called Phase 1, and includes 12 (or 15(5)) stations. Travel time from downtown San Francisco to Los Angeles will be under 2 hours and 40 minutes. CAHSR includes expansion up to approx. 800 miles and 24 stations by connecting Sacramento and San Diego to the system under a Phase 2.
CAHSR Alignment, Phases 1 and 2. Click on here for a larger map.
What’s Being Built Right Now?
The 13 billion from Proposition 1a and the stimulus is to be used towards building 130 miles of Phase 1 in the Central Valley, from Madera to Bakersfield, to be allocated in four construction packages (CP1 through CP5).
CAHSR Through the Central Valley, being built now. Click here for a larger image. CP5 is not shown. Total extent is about 130 miles.
Here’s some more information about the four construction packages:
- CP1: The 32-mile stretch from Avenue 19 in Madera County to East American Avenue in Fresno County. It includes 12 grade separations, 2 viaducts, 1 tunnel, and a major river crossing over the San Joaquin River. Completion is expected in 2019.
- CP2-3: The 60 miles stretch from the terminus of CP1 at East American Avenue in Fresno to 1 mile north of the Tulare-Kern County line. It includes approximately 36 grade separations, using viaducts, underpasses, and overpasses.
- CP4: The 22 mile stretch from the terminus of CP2-3 1 mile north of the Tulare/Kern County Line to Poplar Avenue north of Bakersfield. It will include construction of at-grade, retained fill and aerial sections of the high-speed rail alignment and the relocation of four miles of existing Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) tracks.
- CP5: This package has not yet been bid, but will connect the terminus of CP4 at Poplar Ave. north of Bakersfield to an extent south/east of Bakersfield.
Construction of these packages was supposed to be complete in 2018. The delays behind commencing CAHSR project are a topic for a separate diary, and include an onslaught of litigation prior to awarding the construction contracts (i.e., delays not due to construction). After the packages were finally awarded, construction was further delayed due to difficulties in the 1,100 property acquisitions needed. Supposedly property acquisition delays are now mostly in the past.
After construction of CP1-5, the Amtrak San Joaquin will begin using the newly constructed HSR tracks. The San Joaquin will be able to significantly reduce travel time by up to an hour from Bakersfield to Sacramento, since on the exclusive HSR tracks, it will be able to run at top speed, something which cannot presently be done on the shared freight line presently used.
Instead of a series of photograph of all the construction, here is a corny video put out by the Authority:
Why is HSR in California so Special?
Well, HSR has historically worked the best in places where there is flat terrain and high population density. Even in authoritarian states like China, with no environmental laws and private property rights, HSR has been constructed where it makes the most economic sense. Look at the following maps of China and Europe, two locations with the preponderance of HSR in the World:
In China, where there theoretically could be no limitations on where HSR is built, note the overlap between population density, flat terrain, and the rail route. Not all rail lines shown are HSR.
In Europe, there is more construction of HSR in locations where the population density is lower. Also, more terrain has been overcome, but note the highest density in NW France, Germany, and Denmark and the Netherlands.
Contrast this construction to the United States, which certainly is populous, but not in the flat open spaces. California is no exception.
The population density of California is much more concentrated and much lower. CAHSR must also cross some challenging terrain.
In other words, California, like most of the United States is a challenging place to build HSR. But it is.
Isn’t this going to cost too much?
No. A common right-wing attack on public works projects in the United states is that they simply cost too much due to unions, eminent domain purchases, and environmental regulations. Always to attack unions, eminent domain laws, and environmental regulations. And it is important to state that in an oppressive authoritarian regime like China that lacks unions, property rights, and environmental regulations, any public works construction job is going to be cheaper, faster, and easier. From Wikipedia:
“In July 2014 The World Bank reported that the per kilometer cost of California's high-speed rail system was $56 million, more than double the average cost of $17–21 million per km of high speed rail in China and more than the $25–39 million per km average for similar projects in Europe.[77] It should be noted, though, that high real estate prices in California and three mountain ranges to cross contribute to the difference. For example, Construction Package 2-3 in the farmland of the flat Central Valley works out to $11.4 million per km, although this figure does not include electrification or property values, so it's roughly comparable internationally. Furthermore, the proposed High Speed 2 in Great Britain is estimated to be more expensive on a per mile basis than the Californian system”
In other words, in the Central Valley, even with property acquisition, HSR has managed to get construction costs down to internationally comparable levels.
Surviving The Attacks
Ever since Proposition 1A was passed, and the companion funding from the Obama stimulus was awarded to California, CAHSR has been under constant assault. The vanguard of this attack is this unassuming man, Robert Poole.
The man whose job it is to kill rail projects.
Robert Poole works for the Reason Foundation, which is a lobby group for dirty energy masquerading as a think tank, funded by Exxon Mobil and these two guys, who you already know:
Are you surprised these guys are using their money to kill rail and rapid transit projects around the Country?
And Robert Poole has a direct conduit to Ralph Vartabedian of the Los Angeles Times, who churns out critical stories on the project using “research” handed to him by Poole essentially on behalf of Charles and David Koch. And he’s been at it for years. A brief search of Vartabedian’s work will show zero articles imposing the same critical analysis on road projects that routinely fail to deliver and suffer huge cost overruns.
Then of course, there’s the tech lottery winners, who want those billions in public money to fund their perpetual money losing vanity ventures, like a private version of Soviet pre-Venera spaceflight, and hyper loop, to be brought to you by (IRL brilliant guy) Elon Musk:
Spoiler Alert: No he can’t. The electric car is 190 years old and you still can’t turn a profit? How are you going to make hyperloop?
Hyperloop is the engineering equivalent of telling the Thai Navy SEALs how to rescue the stranded children. There’s a whole separate diary that needs to be written on how people need to stop falling for what are really publicly traded corporation publicity ploys by cosplay engineers.
Reasons for Optimism
Democratic wins mean money for public works. I don’t want to make any predictions about November…
I’m not making any predictions, but...
But unlike major policy proposals requiring a filibuster-proof Senate majority and vulnerable years to implement, directing funds to the states can be achieved through reconciliation, and is often far less contentious. Taking the Senate would help (first let’s win the House), but Trump is just the kind of President that could be suckered into giving billions to infrastructure.
To be continued...
This is being built. Right now.
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(1) Democrats need to win a vacant seat and flip one seat in the Senate to obtain a super-majority there.
(2) Cook political report at the time of writing this months ago lists 5 of those 14 seats as tossup or lean R.
(3) Or 437 miles. The final route has not yet been established.
(4) I give speeds in SI units so they may be better compared to existing European and Asian HSR.
(5) The number of stations is also not yet established.
