Mississippi State House of Representatives Districts
Below you'll find an alternative to Mississippi's House of Representatives districts. What you'll notice is that my version has more Black opportunity districts than the actual map. This comparison will show a different interpretation of how representative districts ought to be drawn. Unlike with the Senate article, the numbering of the districts in the map below does not keep to the previous numbering as close as possible. Trying to recreate the actual districts was not practical using DRA since there are many split voting precincts. It's also hard to find a current statewide map of Mississippi House of Representatives districts. Therefore, the images presented here are only of my alternative version.
Memphis Suburbs 1-10
Here you'll see that the districts are rather compact. The current map plan has 2 Black opportunity districts. My map has at least 3. My 5th district's Black population is significantly unpacked from its actual counterpart. The current district's Black population is 71%; mine is 46%. With a PVI of D+6, my district is capable of electing a Black representative. My 8th district's Black population is also unpacked from 60% to 47%. It also has a D+6 PVI and a Black VAP of 45%. Its neighbor the 9th now becomes a more competitive district since it takes in more Black voters. Its Black VAP is at 40% and it has a R+2 PVI. Just like the in senate map, Benton County is kept in this region increasing the chances of Black representation.
My 1st district also has a PVI of D+6, meaning there's a new competitive district in DeSoto County. The remaining districts are solidly Republican and White.
Northeast 11-15, 17-24, 26, 30, 35
Here you'll see that the districts are compact including a couple that are comprised entirely of a single county. The big differences here are with the Black opportunity districts. The current map has two in this region, with one based mostly in Lee County and another based in Clay and Monroe Counties. My version keeps a Lee County Black district, but brings its Black population down from 64% to 55%. It also has a Black VAP of 52% and a D+13 PVI. Its southern neighbor the 24th is a new mostly Black district in the region. My 24th combines the heavily Black, rural populations of Monroe and Chickasaw counties. Its Black VAP is 52% and its PVI is at D+10. Compare this to the current map, which combines Monroe's Black population with much of mostly Black Clay County, and you'll see that my version unpacks that district's Black population, thus doubling Black representation.
In Lafayette County, my 30th remains a competitive R+3 district. I would have preferred to keep this district similar to, or the same as, the actual district, since it keeps the city of Oxford together. However, that would require precincts to be split, something I couldn't do with DRA. The remaining districts are solidly Republican and White.
Delta 16, 27-29, 32, 34, 38-42, 45, 66-68, 71, 72
Just as with the previous regions, my version increases the amount of Black opportunity districts. Currently there are 14 Black districts out of a total of 18 in this region. My version has 15 Black districts out of 17. Since my Tunica based 5th district doesn't come into this region, an extra Black district is created - the 28th. My Panola County based 27th is like the actual 11th. However, it unpacks the Black population from 63% to 53%. My Bolivar County based 16th and 40th districts are similar to their actual counterparts, but are slightly unpacked. My Washington County based 41st and 42nd are also similar to their actual counterparts both geographically and demographically. The Sunflower County based 39th is also very similar to its counterpart.
My Tallahatchie County based 38th is also a mostly Black district. Compared to the actual map, this moves all other districts out of the county, including its eastern neighbor, a mostly White district with a large Black population based out of Yalobusha County, which is currently held by a White Democrat. My version, the 34th, instead heads north into Panola County and south into Grenada County, increasing its White population. This makes the district less Democratic, but the longtime incumbent White Democrat would still be favored.
There is more significant change just south of this area. In Leflore County lies my 32nd district. Most of its population comes from the city of Greenwood. Compared to the actual map, it's geographically more compact. My 45th district closely resembles its actual counterpart geographically, but not demographically. My 45th takes in parts of Carroll, Montgomery, and Leflore counties. However, the parts it takes in make it a mostly Black district instead of mostly White. The 29th is mostly White and solidly Republican.
My Holmes based 66th is a more compact version than the actual district, but is demographically similar. My Yazoo based 67th has no obvious counterpart, as there are many districts taking in parts of the county. The district is mostly Black and solidly Democratic.
Finally, the remaining three districts are more compact and mostly Black. In actuality, there are only 2 Black districts here. The current 54th district appears squeezed among surrounding Black districts. My 68th district becomes mostly Black by taking in Humphreys and Sharkey counties. The two remaining districts are simply more compact versions to their counterparts.
East Central 25, 31, 33, 36, 37, 43, 44, 46, 47, 70, 73, 74, 76-79, 80, 82, 83
In this region you'll see more unpacking of Black voters allowing for more Black opportunity districts both here and in neighboring regions. My 25th brings the Black population down to a still solid 58% and has a Black VAP of 54%; Clay County is kept whole. In Lowndes County, my 33rd brings the Black population down by about 10%, allowing the 31st to have some semblance of competitiveness. When comparing this to the actual map, you'll see that my version of this county's has fewer and more compact districts.
In Oktibbeha County, the 36th and 37th mirror each other's PVI. The 37th has a much lower Black population, but it has D+11 PVI, meaning it's capable of electing a Black representative. This district does seem more like some of the actual mostly White, but large Black voting bloc allowing a White Democrat to win, districts. While this may be the case here, the overall amount of Black opportunity districts increases significantly.
My Noxubee County based 43rd and Kemper County based 78th are similar to their counterparts on the actual map. The 43rd's Black population goes from 69% to 62%. The 78th has more significant changes. My district takes in all of Kemper along with parts of Lauderdale and Neshoba. However, its Black population becomes a plurality. This is partially due to the district no longer taking in part of Meridian in Lauderdale County. This allows for two mostly Black districts in Lauderdale County.
The current map has one Black district in Lauderdale that takes in most of the city of Meridian. Its Black population is at 78%. The 73rd and 74th districts in my version are both mostly Black at 58% and 60% respectively. Their Black VAPs are at 54% and 55%, respectively. The other two districts that take parts of this county, the 77th and 80th, are mostly White, solidly Republican districts.
Looking further south, you'll see the 79th district taking in the eastern half of Jasper County, along with parts of Clarke and Wayne counties. This is a mostly Black district that most closely resembles the 80th on the current map. The current 80th takes in parts of Jasper and Clarke counties, but instead goes into Jones County taking in most of the city of Laurel. This district's Black population is 71%. My version, the 79th, has a total Black population of 61% and a Black VAP of 58%. This lets Laurel go into its own district.
The remaining districts in this region are mostly White and solidly Republican with the exception of the 44th and the 70th. These are new competitive districts. Attala County makes up most of the 44th district in my version. The actual map has four districts taking parts of this county. My district is 49% White and 48% Black, but has a 52% White VAP and a 45% Black VAP. In some parts of the state this would be a pretty Democratic district, but it has an R+3 PVI. Still, Democrats would be in a good position to win this competitive district as they hold more heavily Republican districts. The 70th district takes in parts of Newton and Scott counties. Its plurality Black total population of 48% contrasts with a plurality White VAP of 46%, which gives it a very slight D+1 PVI.
Capital Region 48-65, 69, 75
Overall, the Rankin County districts are a bit neater, but are mostly the same demographically. They're mostly White, heavily Republican districts in a suburban county adjacent to the state's largest city and capital. The more significant changes come in Hinds and Madison counties.
Madison County has 4 entire districts, including two Black opportunity districts. The 52nd gets much of its population from the city of Canton and most closely resembles the actual 57th. However, my district's Black population is 54%, whereas the actual district's Black population is 71%. The 55th district doesn't have an obvious counterpart on the actual map. It's a plurality Black district with a Black VAP of 46%. Its current PVI is R+2, but looking at further back at its electoral history, it gave Obama over 64% of the vote in 2008 and in 2012. The other two districts are mostly White and solidly Republican.
Hinds County has 10 entire districts, all of which are mostly Black and have mostly Black VAPs. The actual map has 9 mostly Black districts, including a few that take in parts of other counties, and 2 mostly White districts that cross the border into Madison County. My version also has more compact districts than the actual map. Due to the dense Black population in this area, it's harder to prevent some districts’ Black percentages from reaching a high amount; still I was able to unpack many when compared to the actual map.
Southwest 81, 85, 89-92, 94-96
In this region, my districts unpack Black voters creating a new Black opportunity district and a new competitive district. The 85th brings down the Black population to a solid 57% from 66%, while being maintained entirely in Copiah County. By taking in all of Lawrence County and part of Lincoln County, the 89th becomes a somewhat competitive district. It has an R+6 PVI due to its large Black VAP, which is at 40%. The new Black opportunity district comes about with the changes in Adams County. The current map divides Adams County among three districts, two of which pack Black voters. My version splits the county between only two districts, one of which is entirely in the county, and unpacks Black voters. The 91st, which takes in Franklin and Jefferson counties and part of Adams, has a total Black population of 50%, a Black VAP of 48%, and a D+7 PVI. The remainder of Adams County is the 92nd, which is also a solid Black district. This pushes the 95th further east into Pike County, but remains a solid Black district while unpacking Black voters. The 94th also unpacks Black voters bringing the total population down from 67% to 60%, while being maintained in Pike County. The remaining districts are mostly White and solidly Republican.
Pine Belt 84, 86-88, 93, 97-99, 100-104, 106-108
This region is heavily White, so most of the changes here make the districts more compact and practical. However, there are more districts that increase Black representation. In Jones County, you'll see the 86th has a bit of a weird look, but the district is contiguous. It's a mostly Black district based out of the city of Laurel, which is something that doesn't exist on the actual map. The actual district combines most of Laurel with parts of Jasper and Clarke counties. Unpacking Black voters creates a new Black opportunity district.
Forrest County also packs Black voters in Hattiesburg into one district; its Black population is at 75%. My version of Forrest County has two Black opportunity districts each with a D+13 PVI. The 100th district's Black population is 52%, while it has a Black VAP of 47%. The 101st district's total Black population is 50% with a Black VAP of 46%. These districts clearly have enough Black voters to ensure that a Black representative would be elected.
The remaining districts are primarily White and Republican with the exception of the 88th, which is another mostly Black district similar to the one currently in use.
Coast 105, 109-122
Like in the Pine Belt, this region does not have as large a Black population as the state at large. Therefore, there were fewer districts to unpack. Some of the precincts in these counties have large populations going well into the thousands making it a little trickier to draw neat districts. The biggest change here is in Gulfport. The current map has a mostly Black district in the city with its Black population reaching 63%. My 111th district cedes a large portion of the city's Black population to the 112th. The 111th is still a district in which a Black representative can win even with its total Black population at 49% and Black VAP of 47%, as it has a D+15 PVI. The 112th becomes a competitive district, still mostly White, but with a large Black population and an R+1 PVI. It's neighbor, the 118th, is not so heavily Republican with an R+8 PVI. Usually, this type of district would still be solidly Republican, but Mississippi Democrats are able to win even more Republican districts. For instance, house minority leader David Baria has held onto his Hancock County district, the 122nd, for years. My 105th is essentially the same district and it has an R+23 PVI. The 121st district is the only other Black district in the area and is similar to its counterpart on the actual map. The remaining districts are heavily White and very Republican, including the 117th, which has the most Republican leaning PVI of R+42.
In many areas, Black voters are packed or diluted to the point of decreasing the total amount of Black districts. This alternative version of the Mississippi House of Representatives districts demonstrates that the state can certainly draw more Black opportunity districts. This version also demonstrates that this can be accomplished by drawing more practical districts that respect communities of interest as well as political and geographical boundaries. My version has around 50 districts that could elect a Black representative. The current map has around 42. There are also a few new competitive districts throughout the state. My intent, just as with the state senate districts map, is to show that more appropriate districts are clearly missing from the current district plan that is in use.
P.S. Mississippi has a unique rule that applies to its gubernatorial elections. A candidate can't just win by getting a majority of the vote. The candidate must win a majority of the vote in most of Mississippi's House of Representatives districts. If the candidate doesn't accomplish this, then the winner is decided by a vote in the House of Representatives. Meaning that if the map is gerrymandered enough that one party becomes mostly irrelevant, being in a super-minority for instance, which is the case for Democrats, it wouldn't matter who wins the most votes statewide. Since my version increases the amount of Black opportunity districts as well as competitive districts, this rule could have less of an effect on the outcome. That is if my version was in place of the current plan.
P.P.S. It's conceivable that Democrats could get a majority with my map, but that would still rely on enough Democrats winning very Republican districts.
Thanks for reading.
The maps were created using Dave’s Redistricting App: gardow.com/…
The charts and data were assembled using spreadsheets via Stephen Wolf’s guide: www.dailykos.com/…
The Statistical Atlas was used to match the district numbering: statisticalatlas.com/…
Ballotpedia was used to help determine incumbents in some districts: ballotpedia.org/...
Google Images aided in determining the regional breakdown