With speculation swirling that Gov. Bill Walker will pull out of the race and potentially endorse Democrat Mark Begich, and even possibly take on a role in a Begich campaign as a ‘gas czar’, ahead of Monday’s start to early voting, the scenarios in the hypothetical polling data are myriad.
It doesn’t make it easy being a pollster, and among the few there are in Alaska, probably none is turned to for more reliable data than Ivan Moore at Alaska Survey Research.
“I’m going out in the field again this weekend, but it’s a real struggle because I don’t know what to ask,” Moore said Friday morning. “I’ve put together questions with three different scenarios.”
Scenario No. 1 is the status quo — a three-way race with Dunleavy positioned at a 99 percent chance to win, according to Moore.
Scenario No. 2 is Walker pulling out without an official endorsement or joining of the Begich team. In that scenario, Moore guesses Dunleavy would still have about a 90 percent chance of winning.
But in scenario No. 3, where Walker pulls out and endorses and joins Begich effectively and full-throatedly, Moore says it could be a coin toss.
In the current 3-way race, and before any polling could be done to measure the impact of the resignation of Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott on Tuesday, the numbers were essentially 43-26-26 in favor of Dunleavy.
The internal numbers on Walker’s 26 percent show that by a 2 to 1 margin, those voters would break for Begich. Assuming that held, it would add 14 points to Begich to put him at 40 percent, but it would also boost Dunleavy’s share by another 7 percent, pushing him to 50 and, in theory, a 10-point win.
Begich would need to get nearly 4 of every 5 Walker supporters to make up the difference, which would all come down to how effectively Walker pulled off the endorsement, Moore said.
“If they do it right, with Walker brought on board… I would imagine that would create an additional 5-point swing,” Moore said.