In case you missed it on Friday night, one of Chris Hayes’ guests on “All In” was J. D. Scholten, the Democrat hoping to unseat one of the most odious members of the House, Steve King. Hayes tried to get King to come on as well, but King declined.
The real story is that this interview even happened at all. After all, on paper, King should have long since salted this race away. He sits in a historically deep-red district anchored in northwestern Iowa, stretching from Sioux City to Mason City on the other end of the state. With a PVI of R+11, it is easily the reddest district in Iowa. The only time in the last three decades that a race has been even remotely close here was in 2012, when King faced Christie Vilsack—and won by nine. Every other race, King has won by 22 or more. Trump carried this district by a punishing 61-39 margin.
And yet, nearly every handicapper has this race as, at best, “likely Republican” or its equivalent. Districts this red aren’t even supposed to be on the board. I found a likely reason why when Things Come Undone asked how much King and Scholten have raised. Lo and behold, it turns out Scholten is absolutely killing it. He’s raised $1.4 million to King's $671,000, and has over $621,000 in the bank to King’s $160,561. And this in a district where paid media is really, really cheap. It’s allowed Scholten to work this sprawling district like a madman.
It’s all the more staggering when you look at how much King’s eight previous opponents raised all cycle.
- Paul Shomshor, 2002: $91,862
- Joyce Schulte, 2004: $60,055
- Joyce Schulte, 2006: $73,327
- Rob Hubler, 2008: $292,861
- Matthew Campbell, 2010: $249,782
- Christie Vilsack, 2012: $3,359,507
- Jim Mowrer, 2014: $2,172,731
- Kim Weaver, 2016: $159,626
The numbers don’t lie. If you take away Vilsack and Mowrer, King’s previous opponents only raised $982,000 between them. No wonder King thinks he can get away with his dog whistling.
By comparison, there are five D+11 districts—FL-10, FL-23, IN-07, MD-02, and NY-26. Imagine what the level of panic would be here if any of these races were still on the board this close to the election.
In every cycle, a race breaks in a way that no one even expected. One has to wonder if IA-04 could be that race. King should be winning by anywhere from 15-20, from what I know about Iowa. So if he’s winning by single digits, it could be a long night both at the state and national level for the GOP. Of course, if Scholten were to pull this off, Katy bar the door—not only has the GOP lost everything in Iowa, but the Dems are probably winning the House by a lot.
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