OKT 24 FIRST TIER congressional races Tossup Lean D and Likely D seats from cook political report.
AFTER COOK POLITICAL REPORT took FL-15 from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took ILL-14 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took OH-12 from LEAN R BACK to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took FL-26 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took UT-04! from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took NC-13 from LEAN R to TOSSUP— AND took PA-01 from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took NM-02 from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took VA-02 from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took OH-01 from LEAN R to TOSSUP AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took CA-45 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took NC-09 from LEAN R to TOSSUP— AND took NJ-03 from LEAN R to TOSSUP -BUT FL-26 WAS also taken from TOSSUP TO LEAN R — AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took KS-02 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took KS-03 from LEAN R to TOSSUP -BUT OH-12 WAS also taken from TOSSUP TO LEAN R
AND BEFORE THAT COOK POLITICAL REPORT took ME-02 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took MI-08 from LEAN R to TOSSUP — AND took VA-07 from LEAN R to TOSSUP - BUT PA-01 WAS also taken from TOSSUP TO LEAN R
SO there are now (35) (37) (38) (39) (42) 46 FIRST TIER ( TOSSUP, LEAN D, LIKELY D ) seats. FAR more as the 24 seats needed to win a majority. SO Democrats DO NOT NEED TO WIN SECOND TIER SEATS (these are the seats in the Lean R column) TO WIN BACK THE HOUSE
THE NEW / CHANGED DISTRICTS ARE UNDERLINED.
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED FL-15 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED FL-27 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED IL-14 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED OH-12 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED IL-06 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED FL-26 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED KS-03 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED MI-11 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED PA-17 FROM LEAN D TO → LIKELY D
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED UT-03 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED CO-06 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED PA-01 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED NC-13 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN →COOK POLITICAL CHANGED NM-02 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED MN-02 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED MN-03 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
COOK POLITICAL ALSO CHANGED FL-27 FROM LEAN D TO → TOSSUP
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
COOK POLITICAL CHANGED IA-01 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED VA-02 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED OH-01 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED CA-45 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED NC-09 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED NJ-03 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
OUT → COOK POLITICAL ALSO CHANGED FL-26 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN R
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED KS-02 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED KS-03 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
OUT → COOK POLITICAL ALSO CHANGED OH-12 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN R
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED PA-17 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN D
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED ME-02 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED MI-08 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
IN → COOK POLITICAL CHANGED VA-07 FROM LEAN R TO → TOSSUP
OUT → COOK POLITICAL ALSO CHANGED PA-01 FROM TOSSUP TO → LEAN R
2018 federal congressional races.
(22) (24) (26) (27) (28) 29 Tossup seats from cook political report.
(5) (7) (8) (9) (10) 11 Republican seats that lean democratic.
(2) (3) 4 Republican seats that are NOW likely democratic.
THERE ARE TIER ONE SEATS IN (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) 20 STATES
ARIZONA
CALIFORNIA
COLORADO
FLORIDA
IOWA
ILLINOIS
KANSAS
KENTUCKY
MAINE
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
NEW JERSEY
NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
TEXAS
UTAH
VIRGINIA
WASHINGTON
All seats with all democratic and republican candidates.
AFTER PRIMARIES in
California
Colorado
Iowa
Illinois
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington State
it is NOW CLEAR WHO is running in THESE STATES.
ALL SEATS with PVI (Partisan Voter Index) .
HERE IS AN EXPLANATION WHAT PVI IS
FOR EXAMPLE:
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for NJ-07 is R+3, meaning that in the average presidential election this district's results will be three percentage points more in favor of the Republican candidate than the national average.
2018 FEDERAL CONGRESSIONAL RACES — TOSSUP SEATS COOK POLITICAL
EXCEPTION ARE the SEATS AZ-02,CA-49,PA-07, NJ-11, VA-10, IA-01, MN-02, MN-03, CO-06 KS-03, MI-11, IL-06 and NEW FL-27 THEY LEAN DEMOCRATIC AND NJ-02,PA-05, PA-06 and NEW PA-17 THEY ARE LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
ARIZONA
AZ-02: OPEN SEAT — (Republican incumbent McSally runs for Senate) Ann Kirkpatrick— against R- Lea Marquez Peterson
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+1
CALIFORNIA
CA-10: Josh Harder — against R- Jeff Denham(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI EVEN
CA-25: Katie Hill — against R- Stephen Knight (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI EVEN
CA-39: OPEN SEAT — (Ed Royce (I) is retiring) Gil Cisneros — against R- Young Kim
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI EVEN
CA-45: Katie Porter — against R- Mimi Walters(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+3
CA-48: Harley Rouda — against R- Dana Rohrabacher (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+4
CA-49: OPEN SEAT — (Darrel Issa (I) is retiring) Mike Levin
— against R- Diane Harkey
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
NEXT POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+1
COLORADO
CO-06: Jason Crow — against R- Mike Coffman(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI D+2
FLORIDA
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell — against R- Carlos Curbelo(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEXT COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI D+6
FL-27: OPEN SEAT —(Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (I) is retiring) Donna Shalala
— against R- Maria Elvira Salazar
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI D+5
IOWA
IA-01: Abby Finkenauer — against R- Rod Blum (I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI D+1
IA-03: Cindy Axne — against R- David Young(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+1
ILLINOIS
IL-06: Sean Casten — against R-Peter Roskam (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+2
IL-12: Brendan Kelly — against R- Mike Bost(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+5
IL-14: Lauren Underwood — against R- Randy Hultgren(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+5
KANSAS
KS-02: OPEN SEAT — (Lynn Jenkins (I) is retiring) Paul Davis — against R- Steve Watkins
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+10
KS-03: Sharice Davids — against R- Kevin Yoder(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEXT COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+4
KENTUCKY
KY-06: Amy McGrath — against R- Andy Barr(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+9
MAINE
ME-02: Jared Golden — against R- Bruce Poliquin(I)
PVI R+2
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
MICHIGAN
MI-08: Elissa Slotkin— against R- Mike Bishop(I)
PVI R+4
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
MI-11: OPEN SEAT — (David Trott (I) is retiring) Haley Stevens — against R- Lena Epstein
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+4
MINNESOTA
MN-02: Angie Craig — against R- Lewis (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+2
MN-03: Dean Phillips — against R- Erik Paulsen(I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI D+1
NORTH CAROLINA
NC-09: INCUMBENT (Robert Pittenger (I) DEFEATED in PRIMARY) Dan McCready — against R- Mark Harris
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+8
NC-13: Kathy Manning — against R- Ted Budd(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+6
NEW JERSEY
NJ-02: OPEN SEAT — (Frank LoBiondo (I) is retiring) Jeff Van Drew — against R- Seth Grossman
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LIKELY D
PVI R+2
NJ-03: Andrew Kim — against R- Tom MacArthur(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+2
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski — against R- Leonard Lance (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+3
NJ-11: OPEN SEAT — (Rodney Frelinghuysen (I) is retiring) Mikie Sherrill — against R- Jay Webber
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI R+3
NEW MEXICO
NM-02: OPEN SEAT — (Steve Pearce(I) is running for governor) Xochitl Torres Small — against R- Yvette Herrell
PVI R+6
NEW YORK
NY-19: Antonio Delgado — against R-John Faso (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+2
NY-22: Anthony Brindisi — against R-Claudia Tenney (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+6
OHIO
OH-01: Aftab Pureval — against R- Steve Chabot(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+5
OH-12: OPEN SEAT — (Patrick Tiberi (I) is retiring)Danny O'Connor — against R-Troy Balderson
FORMER COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PENNSYLVANIA
PA-01: Scott Wallace — against R- Brian Fitzpatrick(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEXT COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+1
PA-05: Mary Gay Scanlon — against R- Pearl Kim
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LIKELY D
PVI D+13
PA-06: OPEN SEAT — (Ryan Costello(I) is retiring) Chrissy Houlahan — against R- Greg McCauley
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LIKELY D
PVI D+2
PA-07: OPEN SEAT — (Pat Meehan (I) is retiring) Susan Wild — against R- Marty Nothstein
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI D+1
PA-17: Conor Lamb — against Keith Rothfus(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEXT COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LIKELY D
PVI R+3
TEXAS
TX-07: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher — against R- John Culberson (I)
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+7
TX-32: Colin Allred — against R- Pete Sessions(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+5
UTAH
UT-04: Ben McAdams — against R- Mia Love(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+13
VIRGINIA
VA-02: Elaine Luria — against R- Scott Taylor(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+3
VA-07: Abigail Spanberger — against R- David Brat(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN R
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI R+6
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton — against R- Barbara Comstock(I)
OLD COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
NEW COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: LEAN D
PVI D+1
WASHINGTON
WA-08: OPEN SEAT — (Dave Reichert (I) is retiring) Kim Schrier — against R- Dino Rossi
COOK POLITICAL REPORT RATING: TOSSUP
PVI EVEN