As I shopped at the HEB grocery store, I ran into one of my fellow Occupy Kingwood activists. He was not in the best political mental state. Just a few weeks ago, euphoria was high about the prospect of a massive Democratic win in the upcoming midterm elections. But now, he was beginning to feel a sickeningly familiar pit in the stomach—one that reminded him of 2016.
“I have a feeling this election is not going to be like any other,” he said. “What do you think about the polls?”
I told him while I believe in science and polls, it is important to note that correct polling is difficult and as such, it is only as good as the sample.
I interviewed Celinda Lake, one of the better Democratic pollsters and a principal at Lake Research Partners, while attending Netroots Nation 2018. She cautioned about exuberance over the yet-to-materialize Blue Wave. She agrees that polls right now have issues with modeling who and what turnout will look like on Nov. 6, 2018. And she is concerned about who the hidden voters are.
My activist friend told me his feeling from being out in the field with a progressive candidate in a red district is that he does not believe it will be a close election. He thinks the American populace will break hard on one side or the other. Many others have said as much.
If one believes the polls, Donald Trump’s approval ratings are improving. At the same time, a recent Fox News poll shows Obamacare exceeding 50 percent favorability, way ahead of the 40 percent approval for the Trump/GOP tax cut scam. How can a president determined to kill Obamacare and reinstitute discrimination against those with pre-existing conditions be going up in the polls as Obamacare support grows? There is a certain level of cognizant dissonance with many Trump supporters. More importantly, these poll numbers show the effectiveness of Republican messaging—even during the worst of times.
Last week I wrote an article titled “How can the GOP cripple health care, Social Security, Medicare, while driving huge deficits and win?”
Republicans are starting to build a cohesive message that all conservative and right-wing media, politicians and pundits are rolling off of their tongue ad nauseam. And they are doing it in a conniving manner. ...
It is still not too late. However, anyone who remembers the Buffalo Bills comeback on the Houston Oilers should have pause. To date, it is still the largest comeback in NFL history. Democrats could themselves make history if they don't fight as if they are ten points behind. They must put Republicans on the defensive making them defend the ACA/preexisting conditions sabotage, their hypocrisy as they rack up unheard-of deficits, the poisoning of their constituents with deregulation and much more. It is not at all difficult for us to repeat these issues that will help all Americans in their daily lives ad nauseam. Democrats must not allow Republicans to put them on the defensive based on lies using smoke and mirrors as their method of deflection. It is time to win once and for all.
Not unlike Reagan, Trump has a sugar-coated boost built on top of a solid Obama economy. It was refreshing to read Robert Freeman's Common Dreams article "The Market Weighs in on Trump's Economic Policies." Trump is Reagan on steroids. Americans are being hoodwinked into believing that the current economy is real and sustainable. Math will prevail, and a bad crash and social program disruptions are on the horizon
Republicans do not have a real, winning message. What they have is a chaotic directive which, left alone, creates a chaotic America and comparable psyches among its citizens. Unless they’re offered convincing alternatives, many Americans will accept the status quo. If enough of them do then a repeat of 2016’s outcome, even with the winds supposedly at our backs, will materialize in the few days left before the 2018 midterm election.
The Occupy Kingwood activist may be right. This election could break sharply to the right or left in the next few days, and it is all dependent on who plays a better hand. And we already know that Trump is great at playing the American people.
The reality is that we have the better hand—if we decide to play it. As Robert Reich recently wrote, it is not about going high when they go low. It is about going bold. Progressives know what the polls have been saying for some time. Many on the left have shied away from the excellent, progressive ideas that Americans say they want because they fear turning off the right and many centrists. If in the next few days we make Americans feel that we will come through, the Blue Wave could break in our favor on Nov. 6, 2018.